Taxpayer Union-Curia Poll October 2024
Here are the headline results for October's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change compared to September 2024 |
|
National |
34.9% |
↓4.1 |
|
Labour |
30.3% |
↑3.6 |
|
Green |
10.4% |
↓0.6 |
|
ACT |
9.7% |
↑0.9 |
|
NZ First |
7.6% |
↑0.8 |
|
Māori |
3.0% |
↓2.0 |
|
Other |
4.1% |
↑0.6 |
National is down 4.1 points to 34.9 percent from last month while Labour is up 3.6 points to 30.3 percent.
That's National's lowest number in 15 months, and the highest Labour have been in the polls for 16 months.
The Greens are down 0.6 points to 10.4 percent, while ACT are up to 9.7 percent (+0.9 points). New Zealand First is up 0.8 points to 7.6 percent while Te Pāti Māori is down 2.0 points to 3.0 percent.
For the minor parties, TOP is on 2.5 percent (+1.4 points), and no other parties polled above 1.0 percent.
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change compared to September 2024 |
|
National |
44 |
↓4 |
|
Labour |
38 |
↑5 |
|
Green |
13 |
↓1 |
|
ACT |
12 |
↑1 |
|
NZ First |
9 |
↑1 |
|
Māori |
6 |
nc |
Translating these numbers into seats in Parliament, National is down four seats from last month to 44, while Labour is up five seats to 38.
The Greens are down one to 13 while ACT is up one on last month to 12 seats. New Zealand First is up one to nine while Te Pāti Māori is unchanged on six.
This calculation assumes that all electorate seats are held.
On these numbers, the current coalition would still be able to form a Government, holding 65 seats to the centre-left bloc's 57. National and ACT would still require the support of NZ First to form a government.
Christopher Luxon is down 5.0 points from last month to 27.7% while Chris Hipkins is up 4.3 points to 16.9%.
Chlöe Swarbrick is in third place at 9.9% (+2.7 points) followed by Winston Peters (+1.7 points) at 8.4%.
4.0% of respondents still chose Jacinda Ardern as the preferred PM.
David Seymour is at 7.4% (+2.2 points), Rawiri Waititi is at 1.6% and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer is at 1.0%.
Christopher Luxon's net favourability is down 7 points on last month to a net favourability of 0% while Chris Hipkins is up to -8% (+2 points).
David Seymour's net favourability fell to -17 (-3 points), and Winston Peters saw an increase of 5 points to -4%.
This month, we also asked respondents about their views on two Labour Party MP's. Carmel Sepuloni scored -21% while Megan Woods scored -28%.
For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are used to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.
Media Summary Statement
Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Thursday 03 October and Monday 07 October 2024, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 3.4% were undecided on the party vote question. The full results are at https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/oct2024_poll
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Thursday 03 October and Monday 07 October 2024. The median response was collected on Sunday 06 October 2024.
The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 908. There were 61 (6.1%) undecided voters and 31 (3.1%) who refused the vote question.
A random selection of 15,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months. Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.
The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.