Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: September 2024
Here are the headline results for September's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change compared to July 2024 |
|
National |
39.0% |
↑1.4 |
|
Labour |
26.7% |
↑0.8 |
|
Green |
11.0% |
↓1.5 |
|
ACT |
8.8% |
↓0.3 |
|
NZ First |
6.8% |
↓0.5 |
|
Māori |
5.0% |
↑1.5 |
|
Other |
3.5% |
↓0.7 |
National is up 1.4 points to 39.0% from July while Labour is up 0.8 points to 26.7%. The Greens are down 1.5% to 11% while ACT is slightly down to 8.8% (-0.3 points). New Zealand First is down 0.5 points at 6.8% while Te Pāti Māori is up 0.5 points to 5.0%.
For the minor parties, TOP is on 1.1% (-1.3 points), no other parties polled above 1.0%.
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change compared to July 2024 |
|
National |
48 |
↑1 |
|
Labour |
33 |
nc |
|
Green |
14 |
↓2 |
|
ACT |
11 |
nc |
|
NZ First |
9 |
↑1 |
|
Māori |
6 |
nc |
This shows how many seats each party would win in Parliament, based on the decided vote. National is up one seat from July to 48 while Labour remains unchanged. The Greens are down two seats to 14 while ACT is remains unchanged. New Zealand First is down one seat from July to eight while Te Pāti Māori is unchanged on six.
This calculation assumes that all electorate seats are held.
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 67 remains the same from last month. On these numbers, National and ACT would require the support of NZ First to form a government. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is down two to 53.
Christopher Luxon is down 1.8 points from July to 32.7% while Chris Hipkins is down 6.1 points to 12.6%.
Chlöe Swarbrick is in third place at 7.2% (-3.7 points) followed by Winston Peters (+1.1 points) at 6.7%.
6.4% of respondents still chose Jacinda Ardern as the preferred PM.
David Seymour is at 5.2%, Rawiri Waititi is at 2.5% and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer is at 1.1%.
Chris Hipkins' net favourability fell 16 points to -10%, whilst Christopher Luxon's rose 1 point to 7%.
David Seymour's net favourability fell 10 points to -14%, and Winston Peters saw an increase of 4 points to -9%.
This month, we also asked respondents about their views on two National Party Ministers. Matt Doocey scored -11%, while Simon Watts scored -6%.
For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are used to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.
Media Summary Statement
Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Monday 08 and Wednesday 10 September 2024, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 3.4% were undecided on the party vote question. The full results are at https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/poll_sept2024
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Monday 08 and Wednesday 10 September 2024. The median response was collected on 09 September 2024.
The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 906. There were 34 (3.4%) undecided voters and 23 (2.3%) who refused the vote question.
A random selection of 15,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months. Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.
The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.