Links to all previous Taxpayers' Union-Curia polls, including monthly and issue polls, can be found here

Bad news for National in the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll as Labour would now be the largest party in Parliament, gaining three seats to 44. The Coalition would still just about cling on to power on these numbers.

The poll, conducted between 07 and 09 June shows National drop 1.1 points on last month to 33.5 percent, while Labour are up 1.6 points to 34.8 percent.

ACT is down 0.4 points to 9.1 percent, whilst the Greens are down 0.9 points to 8.2 percent. New Zealand First also drops 1.3 points to 6.1 percent, while Te Pāti Māori is down 0.6 points to 3.3 percent. 

Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/2025ju_polldatanztu

For the minor parties, TOP is on 1.8 percent (+1.3 point), Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.1 percent (+0.7 points), New Conservatives are on 0.7 percent (+0.7 points) and Vision NZ on 0.6 percent (+0.2 points).

This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll conducted in May 2025, available here at www.taxpayers.org.nz/polling_may07_2025tucur 

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 62 is down 1 seat from last month. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is up 2 seats to 60. On these numbers, the Centre-Right bloc could still form a Government.

National remains on 42 seats again this month, whilst Labour is up 3 seats to 44. ACT is unchanged on 12 seats, whilst the Greens are down 1 seat to 10. New Zealand First drops 1 seat to 8 seats, while Te Pāti Māori remains on 6. 

For the first time since October 2024, Cost of Living has been replaced as voters' top issue.

The Economy more generally is the most important issue to voters at 20.2 percent (+3.7 points), followed by the Cost of Living at 18.1 percent (-8.3 points), Health at 11.9 percent (-5.0 points) and Employment at 5.8 percent.

Commenting on the results, Taxpayers’ Union Spokesman James Ross said:

"Labour taking the lead and growing concern over the economy should be a worrying sign for the Government in the first Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll since the Budget. Voters are losing faith in the managed decline on offer."

"With inflation finally under heel, cost of living has slipped off the top spot for the first time in over three years. But lower interest rates don't make a sound economy on their own."

"The so-called Growth Budget's only pro-growth policy offered a 1 percent boost to GDP over 20 years, spiralling debt and no credible pathway back to surplus."

"Growth wins votes, stagnation doesn't."

Here are the headline results for February's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:

National is up 2.3 points to 31.9% from January while Labour is up 0.4 points to 31.3%. The Greens are up 3.7 points to 13.2%, while ACT is down 0.8 points to 10.0%. New Zealand First is down 1.7 points to 6.4%, while Te Pāti Māori is down 0.9 points to 4.4%.

For the minor parties, Outdoors and Freedom is at 0.9% (-0.8 points), TOP is on 0.5% (-1.6 points), and New Conservatives is on 0.2% (+0.2 points).

Here are the headline results for January's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:

National is down 4.6 points to 29.6% from December while Labour is up 4.0 points to 30.9%. The Greens are up 1.2 points to 9.5%, while ACT is down 2.2 points to 10.8%. New Zealand First is up 2.7 points to 8.1%, while Te Pāti Māori is down 0.2 points to 5.3%.

For the minor parties, Outdoors and Freedom is at 1.7% (-0.3 points), TOP is at 2.1% (+1 points), and Vision NZ is at 0.6 (+0.4 points).

A new Taxpayers Union – Curia poll in the Tāmaki electorate shows ACT’s Brooke van Velden mounting a strong challenge to incumbent National MP, Simon O’Connor.

The two major candidates for the seat are locked in a statistical tie with 35% of respondents indicating they will vote for Simon O’Conner and 33% opting for Brooke van Velden. 12% said they would vote for Labour’s Fesaitu Solomone while others pledged their support for parties without local electorate candidates: 4% for the Greens, 2% for Te Pāti Māori, and 1% for NZ First. 1% refused to answer while 13% were unsure – much lower than in other electorates polled. 

Removing undecideds and refusals, gives a decided vote of 40% for Simon O’Connor – down 13 points on the last election – and 38% for Brooke van Velden – up 33 points on 2020. Labour is on 14%, the Greens on 4%, Te Pāti Māori on 2%, and NZ First on 1%. 

The full results – including candidate name recognition, MP approval rating, and most important local issues – are available here.

New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union Head of Campaigns, Callum Purves, said: 

 “Tāmaki has been a National stronghold for decades since former Prime Minister Robert Muldoon won the seat back at the 1960 general election, but it can no longer be considered a safe blue seat. Simon O’Connor outpolled the National party vote by 15 points in 2020, but today’s poll suggests there has been a massive turnaround. 

“O’Connor and Brooke van Velden are in a statistical tie for the electorate with a massive increase in support for the ACT Party. With the difference between the two top candidates being within the margin of error for this poll, either candidate could be ahead in this contest that is likely to go right down to the wire.”

A new Taxpayers' Union – Curia poll found that New Zealanders preferred Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis (46% of respondents) to Chris Hipkins and Grant Robertson (37%) as the most trusted team to deal with the cost of living crisis. 17% of respondents were unsure.

This month’s regular Taxpayers’ Union – Curia poll showed that the cost of living was the most important issue to voters ahead of the election on 36% followed by the economy more generally on 14%.
 
Taxpayers’ Union Head of Campaigns, Callum Purves, said:
 
“People across New Zealand are doing it tough as a result of the cost of living crisis and this poll suggests that they want to see a new team take responsibility for tackling it.

“Rampant inflation – fuelled, in part, by the Government’s wasteful spending – has meant Kiwis’ dollars can buy less and less at the supermarket while the Government continues to take a higher share of their wages in tax as a result of bracket creep.

“Canny New Zealanders clearly aren’t swayed by Labour’s lollies such as GST off fresh fruit and vegetables and free dental care, but National needs to go further on its current pledges to cut back wasteful spending and commit to ongoing annual tax bracket indexation or the cost of living crisis won’t be over for a long time to come.”

A new Taxpayers' Union – Curia poll in the Northland Electorate has National’s Grant McCallum reclaiming the seat with 43% of the electorate vote. Labour's incumbent Northland MP Willow-Jean Prime is currently on 18%, while New Zealand First's Shane Jones makes up 13%.

Among the other parties’ candidates, Matt King of Democracy NZ and Reina Penney for the Green party sit at 4%, ACT's Mark Cameron is sitting at 2% of the electorate vote as is Te Pāti Māori despite the party not standing a Northland candidate. 12% of voters are still undecided or refused to answer. 

As a proportion of the decided votes the breakdown is as follows:

• National’s Grant McCallum: 49% 
• Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime: 20%
• New Zealand First’s Shane Jones: 15%
• Green’s Reina Penney: 5%
• Democracy NZ’s Matt King: 5%
• ACT’s Mark Cameron: 3%
• Te Pāti Māori (no candidate): 2%
• Others: 2%

The poll of 400 respondents was conducted on Sunday, 10 September, 2023. The full results, including the most important local issues for voters, are available here. 

Taxpayers' Union Campaigns Manager, Callum Purves, says: 

"This poll again shows another sharp swing away from Labour, after they unexpectedly won this seat at the last election from the then National Party MP, Matt King. This doesn't necessarily spell bad news for electorate MP Willow-Jean Prime who will likely make it back into Parliament with a high list position but a swing this significant will definitely be a wakeup call for incumbent Labour MPs around the country. 

“Compared to previous electorate polling, each of the three top-name recognized candidates has just points between them in one of the most geographically spread electorates in New Zealand, with all three top-polling candidates having over 40% visibility within the electorate. 

“With just under three weeks until early voting opens, this seat looks to be safely making its return to National. Even if all of the 11% undecided vote goes to Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime, that won’t be enough to keep Northland red after Election Day.”

NEW POLL: Hung Parliament as Māori Party and ACT make gains 📊😳

The Prime Minister today announced that he is ruling out a wealth or capital gains tax despite having asked officials to give the Government advice for consideration of introducing a wealth tax as part of the budget process earlier this year.

The Taxpayers' Union has been calling on the PM to commit to this for some time, but it seems another poll earlier this week that had Labour at its lowest level of support for many years may have bounced him into making this announcement. He understands that such proposals are politically toxic. But these aren't just politically bad, they are economically ruinous too. 

No country has ever taxed itself into prosperity. Mr Hipkins shouldn't just be ruling out these two taxes, but ruling out any new taxes while he is Prime Minister – including extending or raising existing taxes. Only by doing this can we look to make New Zealand a high-growth, high productivity country where people want to live, work and invest. 

Can we trust Chippie at his word? 😉

A word of caution. We cheered when Jacinda Ardern made a commitment to rule out "any new taxes", but she broke her word – repeatedly – despite the Labour majority. Since the 2020 campaign, we have seen:

> Continued tax hikes by stealth through bracket creep

> Introduction of the ute tax 

> Annual tax increases to alcohol and tobacco 

> The extension of the bright line test

> Stopping interest deductibility for rental properties

> Increasing the trust tax rate 

Plus, today's poll confirms that any Government Chris Hipkins leads post-election would have to involve the Greens and the Māori Party who both want nothing less than exorbitant tax hikes and new asset taxes.

Just who's to blame for high supermarket prices? 🛒 👀

The Government has established as new 'Grocery Commissioner', which it says will tackle New Zealand’s excessive grocery prices. But while it likes bashing the supermarket companies, the real issues behind paying too make for groceries lies in over-regulation. 

The grocery duopoly is propped up by restrictions on both foreign competition and land use. High corporate taxes and the ban on foreign companies owning land make New Zealand an unattractive market for international discount chains to invest in.

And the Government has doubled down with the Grocery Industry Competition Bill’s ridiculous requirement for potential future competitors to supply their competition (i.e. the two big established players) with produce at wholesale prices.

Restrictions under the Resource Management Act (RMA) prevent would-be competitors from setting up shop, resulting in localized monopolies and price gouging. David Parker’s RMA reforms are only going to make this worse.

And all of this is before the Government continues to drive inflation through its reckless overspending. It is little wonder food price inflation of 12.5% is causing families to feel the pain.

Instead of fixing the drivers of high food costs, the Government appears to be trying to shift the blame. Adding more bureaucracy isn’t going to reduce barriers to entry and cut grocery costs.

Writing in today's edition of The Post, Taxpayers’ Union Researcher James Ross explains in more detail how the Government is fuelling excessive grocery prices. Read his piece over here.

Taxpayers were made to foot the bill for up to $2 million in census giveaways 🎁

As if the census earlier this year was not disastrous enough with its poor return rate, your humble Taxpayers’ Union can reveal that up to $2 million was budgeted for handing out support vouchers to get non-responding individuals and households to complete the census.  

From that $2 million budget, $1 million went to communities nationwide and the other half went to households in Auckland. Across both streams of work, vouchers were given out at up to $100 dollars in value. As of 18 May, the total spend on food and fuel vouchers was $176,090. 

Taxpayers' Union Researcher Alex Murphy looks into this issue in more detail in a blogpost and asks whether it is really the right approach to offer those who refuse to fill out their census forms a free meal. The scheme leaves a rather bad taste in the mouth.

Thank you for your support.

Yours aye,

Callum Purves Campaigns Manager New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union.

Media coverage:

NZ Herald Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown sets record for the Super City’s highest rates increase ever

Business Desk Queenstown adds $30m to ratepayer bill to pay debt

The Post How the Government is propping up our excessive grocery prices

NEW POLL: Centre Right could form government while Greens see bump in support 📊🟢

Exclusively for our supporters like you, here are the results of June's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:

Here is how these results would translate to seats in the 120-seat Parliament, assuming all electorate seats are held:

National is unchanged on last month on 46 seats while Labour is down 2 seats to 42. ACT remains constant on 16 seats while the Greens pick up 3 seats to a total of 12. The Māori Party is down 1 seat on last month to 4.

David Parker U-Turns Under Pressure From Taxpayers’ Union ↩️⚖️

Our Hands Off Our Homes: Stop Central Planning Committees roadshow is well under way. We’re traversing the length and breadth of the country from Invercargill to Whangārei to raise awareness about the Government's latest power grab. By increasing the profile of this issue, we are putting pressure on the Government to scrap these undemocratic reforms.

And we have already made some progress. 

We invited all Members of Parliament, mayors and councillors to come along and listen to voters' concerns about these reforms and give their own view about the proposals. On the very first day of our roadshow, I received an email from Minister Parker where he refused to attend one of our events as they were, apparently, "political grandstanding".

While he clearly wasn't interested in hearing what New Zealanders think, he did confirm a Government back down. 

Under his original plans, these reforms would have given the new National Māori Entity the ability to monitor and issue directions to the Minister and all bodies acting under these new laws, including the Environment Court. This prompted an unprecedented intervention from the Chief Justice, Dame Helen Winkelmann, who said such an approach was "inconsistent with New Zealand's constitutional arrangements".

In his email, Minister Parker announced that the Government would remove National Māori Entity oversight of the Environment Court. This simply goes to show that our efforts are already making a difference. Everyone who signs and shares our petition, or comes along to one of our roadshow events, or buys a banner or yard sign, is applying pressure on the Government.

It is a small step in the right direction, but we will continue to ramp up our campaign. These planning reforms are so bad that they must be withdrawn and the Government must go back to the drawing board. 

ACT announces plans to slash red tape ✂️🟡

Here at the Taxpayers' Union, we believe that excessive regulation is holding New Zealand back. Red tape hampers productivity and growth by putting costly and unnecessary barriers in the way of working, operating a business, or making improvements to your property.

But unlike tax and spend policies, the introduction of new regulations often receives little scrutiny. The current lack of careful analysis often leads to the implementation of unworkable rules, which in turn produce unintended consequences. In many cases, the costs associated with such regulations far outweigh any potential benefits they may bring.

Last weekend, ACT announced a policy to create a new Ministry for Regulation run by a minister responsible for subjecting proposals for new regulations to the same level of scrutiny we give to public spending. The Minister would also have the responsibility of reviewing existing regulations to see whether those that are unnecessarily burdensome can be scrapped.

We are generally cautious of proposals to create a new Ministry – there are far too many already – but we believe that this may be one of the few exceptions. Too often cost/benefit analyses can be a tick-box exercise, but having a Minister specifically charged with casting a critical eye over new and existing regulations will ensure that preventing and reducing unnecessary red tape will be given the priority it requires. 

Michael Wood must resign over shares scandal 🔍❌

At the time of writing, Michael Wood remains a Minister and has only been temporarily relieved of his transport portfolio. In the unlikely event that you missed it, Michael Woodhouse failed to declare his financial conflict of interest in Auckland Airport despite being the minister responsible for rules around aviation and the wasteful Auckland Light Rail to the airport. 

While the story is news to the public, it apparently isn't to Michael Wood. Two-and-a-half years ago, he was instructed by the Cabinet Office to sell his shares to ensure that his financial interest would not influence his decision making. Despite assurances that he would do so, Minister Wood only just sold his shares this week after the story appeared on the front page of the NZ Herald.

And this wasn't just a case of the Minister being careless and forgetting to sell the shares after a single reminder. The Cabinet Office told him to sell the shares not once, not twice, but a staggering twelve times. On at least one occasion, the Minister actually told the Jacinda Ardern's office that the shares had been sold despite this being demonstrably false. In addition, we now know that Minister Wood mislead the media, in response to a question from Newsroom about the accuracy of his interests register decorations.

Call us old fashioned, but we remember when Labour Ministers were sacked (or forced to quit) for lying to the media, let alone, the Prime Minister. Just ask Lianne Dalziel...

We say it is simply untenable for Michael Wood to remain a Minister. Chris Hipkins should have taken swift action to remove Wood from office immediately to send a clear signal that this type of conduct is unacceptable. This demonstrates a lack of respect to New Zealanders who expect our MPs – and Ministers especially – to be transparent (and honest).

As the Prime Minister isn't taking decisive action, we have set up a petition calling on Michael Wood to do the honourable thing and resign. You can add your name here.

>> Sign the petition <<<

Thank you for your support.

Yours aye,

Callum Purves Campaigns Manager New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union.

Media coverage:

NZ Herald On the Tiles: Episode 54 – The challenges facing National pre-election (01:51)

Stuff Where is the Green Party at for the upcoming election campaign?

TVNZ Donations, voting age: Panel recommends sweeping election changes

Wairarapa Times-Age Groups link up to oppose RMA plan

whatsoninvers.nz Huge Response In Southland To Hands Off Homes Roadshow

Otago Daily Times Mayor's comments on media funding labelled ignorant 

The News Addressing the people

Southland Times Gore District Council chief executive breaks his silence on bullying claims