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New Poll: Kiwis reject Opportunity push to raise Youth Court age
New Taxpayers’ Union–Curia polling shows New Zealanders firmly reject extending the Youth Court beyond its current upper age of 17, with 64 percent opposed and just 22 percent in support.
Opportunity is campaigning to raise the Youth Court age, but even its own voters are against it. Three-quarters of Opportunity voters oppose extending the Court to 25, compared with just 10 percent who support it.
Even among 18–39 year olds, 57 percent oppose the proposal and 26 percent support it, and opposition rises to 73 percent among rural voters.
A majority of voters in every party tested reject extending the Youth Court to age 25:
Opportunity is campaigning to raise the Youth Court age, but even its own voters are against it. Three-quarters of Opportunity voters oppose extending the Court to 25, compared with just 10 percent who support it.
Even among 18–39 year olds, 57 percent oppose the proposal and 26 percent support it, and opposition rises to 73 percent among rural voters.
A majority of voters in every party tested reject extending the Youth Court to age 25:
- NZ First: 86 percent
- ACT: 78 percent
- Te Pāti Māori: 78 percent
- Opportunity: 75 percent
- National: 68 percent
- Labour: 58 percent
- Greens: 53 percent
Taxpayers’ Union spokesperson Tory Relf said:
“Opportunity is campaigning for a policy rejected by voters across every party, including three-quarters of its own supporters.
“Adult actions should have adult consequences. There is nothing ‘youth’ about a 24-year-old. If you’re old enough to vote, drink, marry and work full-time, you’re old enough to face the adult justice system.
“When even your own voters think you’ve got it wrong, the sensible thing to do is drop the policy.”
EXCLUSIVE POLLING: National voters demand a no-tax-hikes promise
The latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Issue Poll shows National voters overwhelmingly want the party to draw a clear line in the sand on tax:
- 58 percent of voters want National to promise no new taxes or tax increases, compared to just 25 percent who oppose.
- 76 percent of National voters want them to make the same promise, with just 16 percent opposed.
- 65 percent of voters want income tax brackets indexed to inflation, and just 16 percent are opposed.
- 74 percent of National voters support indexation, with just 14 percent opposed. Voters of all parties support indexation.
Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams said:
“National voters aren’t asking for a tax-policy choose-your-own-adventure. They want a simple promise: no new taxes and no tax hikes. Three quarters of National voters support it, and majorities of Labour, ACT, New Zealand First and Te Pāti Māori voters agree.”
“National can’t have it both ways. You can’t campaign against Labour’s tax hikes while leaving yourself a giant escape hatch for raising taxes on ‘someone else’. Every qualification makes voters wonder which tax is next.”
“And ‘no new taxes on working people’ must include the inflation tax. Sixty-five percent of voters support indexing income tax brackets to inflation, including seventy-four percent of National voters. Bracket creep is a tax hike by stealth: when your pay only keeps up with inflation, you’re no richer, but the Government quietly takes a bigger slice anyway.”
“The choice for National is brutally simple: cut the spending or keep reaching into taxpayers’ pockets. Voters have made it pretty clear which one they want.”
The full results can be found at: https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/poll_no_new_taxes
Luxon regains 'Preferred Prime Minister' top-spot
National have seen a small uptick in support in the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll, while both ACT and New Zealand First have taken a hit. The Coalition continues to be able to form a Government on these numbers.
The poll sees National up 0.2 points to 30.0 percent, while Labour is down 1.5 points to 31.9 percent. New Zealand First drops 1.9 points to 11.7 percent, while the Greens gain 1.9 points to 9.7 percent.
ACT drops 2.5 points to 6.5 percent, while Te Pāti Māori gains 1.5 points to 4.1%.
Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers’ Union’s website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/maypoll_2026tucur
For the minor parties, TOP is at 2.8 percent, New Conservatives are at 0.8 percent, Outdoors and Freedom Party is on 0.5 percent, and Vision NZ is on 0.3 percent.
This month’s results are compared to the last Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll conducted in April 2026, available at www.taxpayers.org.nz/easter_26_poll
The combined projected seats for the 'Government Bloc' (National, ACT, New Zealand First) is down 3 to 62 seats. The 'Opposition Bloc' (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori) is up 3 to 58.
Labour drops 1 seat to 41, while National gains 2 to 39. New Zealand First drops 2 to 15, while the Greens gain 2 to 12. ACT drops 3 to 8, and Te Pāti Māori gains 2 to 5.
In the Preferred Prime Minister ranking, Luxon gains 1.0 point to 21.5 percent. Hipkins drops 2.7 points to 19.0 percent. Peters drops 0.5 points to 11.6 percent, Swarbrick drops 2.0 points to 5.4 percent, and Seymour drops 0.7 points to 3.9%.
Commenting on the results, Taxpayers’ Union Spokesperson Tory Relf said:
"National may be breathing a sigh of relief, but there's still only a hair's breadth between the left and right blocs, and barely a few percentage points between Kiwis' preferred Prime Ministers."
"The final Budget before the election is only a few weeks away. It will be make-or-break for the Government."
"Unsurprisingly cost of living and the economy remain Kiwis' top concerns. With the fuel crisis still dragging growth down, the Government needs to announce serious plans to right-size the state and get the country growing again."
NEW POLL: Hung Parliament as cost-of-living concern soars to highest level since May 2024
Neither the Centre-Right or Centre-Left blocs have enough seats to form a Government in the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll.
The poll shows Labour drops 0.3 points to 34.1 percent, while National drops 0.2 points to 31.3 percent.
New Zealand First drops 1.4 points to 10.5 percent, while the Greens jump 2.6 points to 10.3 percent. ACT drops 0.3 points to 6.7 percent, while Te Pāti Māori drops 0.1 points to 2.9 percent.
Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/0226_polltu
For the Minor parties, TOP is on 1.4 percent (+0.7 points), NZ Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.2 percent (+0.6 points), Vision NZ is on 0.4 percent (+0.1 points), and New Conservatives are on 0.1 percent (-0.2 points).
This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll conducted in January 2026, available at www.taxpayers.org.nz/jan26poll_nztucuria
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right is down 3 to 60, while the combined seats for the Centre-Left rose 3 to 60. On these numbers, there would be a hung Parliament.
Cost of Living remains the most important issue, jumping 7.4 points to 34.9 percent. This is its highest result since May 2024.
The Economy more generally follows on 12.0 percent (-2.8 points), followed by Health on 9.2 percent (+0.4 points).
Commenting on the results, Taxpayers' Union Spokesman James Ross said:
"As we move deeper into election year, the race is neck-and-neck. This poll will serve as a wake-up call for the Government to lift its game."
"The sizeable shift in the seat numbers mostly reflects changes in support for the Greens and New Zealand First since last month."
"The other big shift is the increase in the number of voters more worried about the cost of living. It's now higher than anytime since May 2024. This is significant as it is counter to much of the media commentary about the recovering economy. Clearly people just aren't feeling it yet."
NEW POLL: New Zealand First's record high result; country direction takes a hit
New Zealand First rise to their highest ever result in a Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll (polling since January 2021). The Coalition also strengthen their lead.
The poll shows Labour gain 2.8 points to 34.4 percent, while National gains 1.5 points to 31.5 percent.
New Zealand First gain 3.8 points to 11.9 percent, while the Greens drop 3.1 points to 7.7 percent. ACT drops 1.9 points to 7.0 percent, while Te Pāti Māori drops 0.1 points to 3.0 percent.
Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/jan26poll_nztucuria
For the minor parties, TOP is on 0.7% (-0.9 points), NZ Outdoors and Freedom is on 0.6% (-0.4 points), New Conservatives are on 0.3% (-0.7 points), and Vision NZ is on 0.3% (nc).
This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll conducted in December 2025, available at www.taxpayers.org.nz/25dec_polltucur
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right is up 2 seats to 63, while the combined seats for the Centre-Left is down 2 to 57. On these numbers, the Centre-Right bloc could form a Government.
However, net country direction has dropped 9.8 points to -16.4 percent. 32.6 percent (-5.7 points) say the country is headed in the right direction, while 49.0 percent (+4.1 points) say it is headed in the wrong direction.
Commenting on the results, Taxpayers' Union Spokesman James Ross said:
"This is the first poll since the Government kicked any plans for a surplus back until next decade, and people have clearly taken that to heart. Half of Kiwis now think the country is on the wrong track, compared to just a third who are happy with the direction."
"However, New Zealand First will definitely be happy with how they're entering election year. This is their highest ever result in a Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll, at almost double their support during the last election."
Cook Islands Shouldn’t Get Automatic NZ Privileges if Foreign Policy Splits, say Kiwis
A new nationwide poll commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union shows New Zealanders do not believe the Cook Islands should continue to enjoy automatic access to New Zealand citizenship, healthcare, and education if its government pursues a foreign policy contrary to New Zealand’s – or fails to even consult Wellington. 60.5% of decided respondents oppose Cook Islanders retaining automatic access.
Across all respondents, just 30% of respondents supported Cook Islanders retaining automatic access to New Zealand entitlements under such circumstances. 46% were opposed, and 24% were unsure.
Taxpayers’ Union spokesperson Tory Relf said:
“Direct funding of the Cooks has been in the media in recent days, but it is a drop in the bucket compared to the taxpayer-funded entitlements given to Cook Islanders such as health, education, and the New Zealand passport."
“If the Cook Islands Government isn’t going to act in New Zealand’s best interests, or even bother to consult with us on foreign affairs, it raises the obvious question of whether Kiwi taxpayers should continue to give Cook Islanders the free lunch.”
“This is a strong message from taxpayers. The results show that the public expects alignment on foreign affairs in exchange for the privileges and responsibilities that come with New Zealand citizenship. From a taxpayer perspective, that is not an unreasonable expectation.”
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research between 7–9 June 2025 and sampled 1,000 eligible and likely voters across New Zealand. The margin of error is ±3.1%. The full results are available at www.taxpayers.org.nz/cooks_poll
Taxpayers' Union-Curia Polls
Links to all previous Taxpayers' Union-Curia polls, including monthly and issue polls, can be found here
NEW POLL: Labour Becomes Largest Party, Economy Top Concern
Bad news for National in the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll as Labour would now be the largest party in Parliament, gaining three seats to 44. The Coalition would still just about cling on to power on these numbers.
The poll, conducted between 07 and 09 June shows National drop 1.1 points on last month to 33.5 percent, while Labour are up 1.6 points to 34.8 percent.
ACT is down 0.4 points to 9.1 percent, whilst the Greens are down 0.9 points to 8.2 percent. New Zealand First also drops 1.3 points to 6.1 percent, while Te Pāti Māori is down 0.6 points to 3.3 percent.
Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/2025ju_polldatanztu
For the minor parties, TOP is on 1.8 percent (+1.3 point), Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.1 percent (+0.7 points), New Conservatives are on 0.7 percent (+0.7 points) and Vision NZ on 0.6 percent (+0.2 points).
This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll conducted in May 2025, available here at www.taxpayers.org.nz/polling_may07_2025tucur
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 62 is down 1 seat from last month. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is up 2 seats to 60. On these numbers, the Centre-Right bloc could still form a Government.
National remains on 42 seats again this month, whilst Labour is up 3 seats to 44. ACT is unchanged on 12 seats, whilst the Greens are down 1 seat to 10. New Zealand First drops 1 seat to 8 seats, while Te Pāti Māori remains on 6.
For the first time since October 2024, Cost of Living has been replaced as voters' top issue.
The Economy more generally is the most important issue to voters at 20.2 percent (+3.7 points), followed by the Cost of Living at 18.1 percent (-8.3 points), Health at 11.9 percent (-5.0 points) and Employment at 5.8 percent.
Commenting on the results, Taxpayers’ Union Spokesman James Ross said:
"Labour taking the lead and growing concern over the economy should be a worrying sign for the Government in the first Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll since the Budget. Voters are losing faith in the managed decline on offer."
"With inflation finally under heel, cost of living has slipped off the top spot for the first time in over three years. But lower interest rates don't make a sound economy on their own."
"The so-called Growth Budget's only pro-growth policy offered a 1 percent boost to GDP over 20 years, spiralling debt and no credible pathway back to surplus."
"Growth wins votes, stagnation doesn't."
Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: February 2025
Here are the headline results for February's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change compared to January 2025 |
|
National |
31.9% |
↑2.3 |
|
Labour |
31.3% |
↑0.4 |
|
ACT |
10.0% |
↓0.8 |
|
Green |
13.2% | ↑3.7 |
|
Māori |
4.4% |
↓0.9 |
|
NZ First |
6.4% |
↓1.7 |
|
Other |
2.7% |
↓3.1 |
National is up 2.3 points to 31.9% from January while Labour is up 0.4 points to 31.3%. The Greens are up 3.7 points to 13.2%, while ACT is down 0.8 points to 10.0%. New Zealand First is down 1.7 points to 6.4%, while Te Pāti Māori is down 0.9 points to 4.4%.
For the minor parties, Outdoors and Freedom is at 0.9% (-0.8 points), TOP is on 0.5% (-1.6 points), and New Conservatives is on 0.2% (+0.2 points).
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change compared to January 2025 |
|
National |
39 |
↑1 |
|
Labour |
39 |
nc |
|
ACT |
12 |
↓2 |
|
Green |
16 |
↑4 |
|
NZ First |
8 | ↓2 |
|
Māori |
6 |
↓1 |
This shows how many seats each party would win in Parliament, based on the decided vote. National is up 1 seat seat from last month to 39 while Labour remains unchanged on 39. The Greens are up 4 seats at 16 while ACT is down 2 seats at 12. New Zealand First is down 2 seats on last month to 8 while Te Pāti Māori is down one to 6.
This calculation assumes that National would not win more than 39 electorate seats.
The Centre-Right bloc is projected to win 59 seats, a decline of 3 from last month. Meanwhile, the Centre-Left bloc has gained 3 seats, bringing their total to 61. Based on these numbers, Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori could form a Government.
Preference for Christopher Luxon is down 3.8 points at 20.7%, while Chris Hipkins is up 2.3 points to 17.6%.
David Seymour is on 6.4% (+0.1 points) while Winston Peters is down 0.8 points to 8.0% and Chlöe Swarbrick is at 8.9% (+0.4 points).
24.5% of respondents named the Cost of Living as their top issue, followed by the Economy at 17.0%, Health at 13.9%, Māori/Treaty issues at 7.6%, Poverty at 4.7% and Employment at 3.8%.
34.2% of respondents said the country was moving in the right direction, compared to 50% who said it was moving in the wrong direction. This gives a net right/wrong direction result of -15.8% (down 1.8 points).
For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are use to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.
Media Summary Statement
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll”.
Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Sunday 02 and Tuesday 04 February 2025, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 5.4% were undecided on the party vote question.
Notes
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 02 and Tuesday 04 February 2025,. The median response was collected on Monday 03 February 2025
The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 908. There were 54 (5.4%) undecided voters and 25 (2.5%) who refused the vote question.
A random selection of 15,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months.
Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.
The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed.
The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area.
Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.
Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: January 2025
Here are the headline results for January's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change compared to December 2024 |
|
Labour |
30.9% |
↑4.0 |
|
National |
29.6% |
↓4.6 |
|
ACT |
10.8% |
↓2.2 |
|
Green |
9.5% | ↑1.2 |
|
Māori |
5.3% |
↓0.2 |
|
NZ First |
8.1% |
↑2.7 |
|
Other |
5.8% |
↑2.5 |
National is down 4.6 points to 29.6% from December while Labour is up 4.0 points to 30.9%. The Greens are up 1.2 points to 9.5%, while ACT is down 2.2 points to 10.8%. New Zealand First is up 2.7 points to 8.1%, while Te Pāti Māori is down 0.2 points to 5.3%.
For the minor parties, Outdoors and Freedom is at 1.7% (-0.3 points), TOP is at 2.1% (+1 points), and Vision NZ is at 0.6 (+0.4 points).
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change compared to December 2024 |
|
Labour |
39 |
↑5 |
|
National |
38 |
↓6 |
|
ACT |
14 |
↓3 |
|
Green |
12 |
↑1 |
|
NZ First |
10 | ↑3 |
|
Māori |
7 |
nc |
This shows how many seats each party would win in Parliament, based on the decided vote. National is down six seats from last month to 38 while Labour is up five seats reaching 39. The Greens are up one seat at 12 while ACT is down three seats at 14. New Zealand First is up three seats from last month to 10 while Te Pāti Māori remains on 7.
This calculation assumes that National would not have an overhang and lose at least five electorate seats.
The Centre-Right bloc is projected to hold 62 seats, a decline of six from last month. Based on these numbers, National and ACT would need NZ First's support to form a government. Meanwhile, the Centre-Left bloc has gained six seats, bringing their total to 58.
Preference for Christopher Luxon is down 2.6 points at 24.5%, while Chris Hipkins is down 4.6 points to 15.3%.
David Seymour is on 6.3% (+0.5 points) while Winston Peters is up 3 points to 8.8% and Chlöe Swarbrick is at 8.5% (+4 points).
22.3% of respondents named the Cost of Living as their top issue, followed by the Economy at 17.5%, Health at 11.6%, Māori/Treaty issues at 8.0%, the Environment at 5.8% and Education at 4.5%.
39% of respondents said the country was moving in the right direction, compared to 53% who said it was moving in the wrong direction. This gives a net right/wrong direction result of -14% (down 17 points).
For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are use to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.
Media Summary Statement
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll”.
Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Thursday 09 and Monday 13 January 2025, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 5.4% were undecided on the party vote question.
Notes
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Thursday 09 and Monday 13 January 2025,. The median response was collected on Sunday 12 January 2025.
The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 908. There were 54 (5.4%) undecided voters and 25 (2.5%) who refused the vote question.
A random selection of 15,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months.
Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.
The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed.
The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area.
Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.