New Zealand First rise to their highest ever result in a Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll (polling since January 2021). The Coalition also strengthen their lead.

The poll shows Labour gain 2.8 points to 34.4 percent, while National gains 1.5 points to 31.5 percent.

New Zealand First gain 3.8 points to 11.9 percent, while the Greens drop 3.1 points to 7.7 percent. ACT drops 1.9 points to 7.0 percent, while Te Pāti Māori drops 0.1 points to 3.0 percent.

Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/jan26poll_nztucuria

For the minor parties, TOP is on 0.7% (-0.9 points), NZ Outdoors and Freedom is on 0.6% (-0.4 points), New Conservatives are on 0.3% (-0.7 points), and Vision NZ is on 0.3% (nc).

This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll conducted in December 2025, available at www.taxpayers.org.nz/25dec_polltucur

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right is up 2 seats to 63, while the combined seats for the Centre-Left is down 2 to 57. On these numbers, the Centre-Right bloc could form a Government.

However, net country direction has dropped 9.8 points to -16.4 percent. 32.6 percent (-5.7 points) say the country is headed in the right direction, while 49.0 percent (+4.1 points) say it is headed in the wrong direction.

Commenting on the results, Taxpayers' Union Spokesman James Ross said:

"This is the first poll since the Government kicked any plans for a surplus back until next decade, and people have clearly taken that to heart. Half of Kiwis now think the country is on the wrong track, compared to just a third who are happy with the direction."

"However, New Zealand First will definitely be happy with how they're entering election year. This is their highest ever result in a Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll, at almost double their support during the last election."

Links to all previous Taxpayers' Union-Curia polls, including monthly and issue polls, can be found here

Bad news for National in the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll as Labour would now be the largest party in Parliament, gaining three seats to 44. The Coalition would still just about cling on to power on these numbers.

The poll, conducted between 07 and 09 June shows National drop 1.1 points on last month to 33.5 percent, while Labour are up 1.6 points to 34.8 percent.

ACT is down 0.4 points to 9.1 percent, whilst the Greens are down 0.9 points to 8.2 percent. New Zealand First also drops 1.3 points to 6.1 percent, while Te Pāti Māori is down 0.6 points to 3.3 percent. 

Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/2025ju_polldatanztu

For the minor parties, TOP is on 1.8 percent (+1.3 point), Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.1 percent (+0.7 points), New Conservatives are on 0.7 percent (+0.7 points) and Vision NZ on 0.6 percent (+0.2 points).

This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll conducted in May 2025, available here at www.taxpayers.org.nz/polling_may07_2025tucur 

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 62 is down 1 seat from last month. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is up 2 seats to 60. On these numbers, the Centre-Right bloc could still form a Government.

National remains on 42 seats again this month, whilst Labour is up 3 seats to 44. ACT is unchanged on 12 seats, whilst the Greens are down 1 seat to 10. New Zealand First drops 1 seat to 8 seats, while Te Pāti Māori remains on 6. 

For the first time since October 2024, Cost of Living has been replaced as voters' top issue.

The Economy more generally is the most important issue to voters at 20.2 percent (+3.7 points), followed by the Cost of Living at 18.1 percent (-8.3 points), Health at 11.9 percent (-5.0 points) and Employment at 5.8 percent.

Commenting on the results, Taxpayers’ Union Spokesman James Ross said:

"Labour taking the lead and growing concern over the economy should be a worrying sign for the Government in the first Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll since the Budget. Voters are losing faith in the managed decline on offer."

"With inflation finally under heel, cost of living has slipped off the top spot for the first time in over three years. But lower interest rates don't make a sound economy on their own."

"The so-called Growth Budget's only pro-growth policy offered a 1 percent boost to GDP over 20 years, spiralling debt and no credible pathway back to surplus."

"Growth wins votes, stagnation doesn't."

Here are the headline results for February's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:

National is up 2.3 points to 31.9% from January while Labour is up 0.4 points to 31.3%. The Greens are up 3.7 points to 13.2%, while ACT is down 0.8 points to 10.0%. New Zealand First is down 1.7 points to 6.4%, while Te Pāti Māori is down 0.9 points to 4.4%.

For the minor parties, Outdoors and Freedom is at 0.9% (-0.8 points), TOP is on 0.5% (-1.6 points), and New Conservatives is on 0.2% (+0.2 points).

Here are the headline results for January's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:

National is down 4.6 points to 29.6% from December while Labour is up 4.0 points to 30.9%. The Greens are up 1.2 points to 9.5%, while ACT is down 2.2 points to 10.8%. New Zealand First is up 2.7 points to 8.1%, while Te Pāti Māori is down 0.2 points to 5.3%.

For the minor parties, Outdoors and Freedom is at 1.7% (-0.3 points), TOP is at 2.1% (+1 points), and Vision NZ is at 0.6 (+0.4 points).

It's been a recess week at Parliament this week, but even with some of the top political leaders out of the country, the scourge of government waste persists ...

At the same time, good news for the Government (and Mr Luxon) in this month's exclusiveTaxpayers' Union – Curia Poll (see below).

NZQ-Ay?! Yet another expensive rebrand we've uncovered 💸🤬 

Given the dire state of New Zealand's education system, you'd think department heads would be steadfastly focused on ensuring that kids are actually at school and learning.

But why improve education when you can just do a rebrand?

The New Zealand Qualifications Authority (the agency tasked with ensuring young people are getting quality teaching, accurate educational records, and internationally transferable qualifications) has instead decided to blow $2.9 million on a flashy rebrand and a website upgrade.

Exposed by your humble Taxpayers' Union, this rebrand involves a new logo, and a change to the colours of the agency's website. Impressive stuff.

Of course, it is sometimes necessary to make technical upgrades to ensure websites function properly but too often government departments seize the 'opportunity' to blow hundreds of thousands of dollars ‘refreshing brand identity’ (whatever that means). We say this nonsense has to stop and there is an easy solution: having one standardised logo for government agencies as they do in the UK:

$365k golden goodbye for gross incompetence and failed CEO 👋🏻🤑

The $365,000 payout to outgoing Kāinga Ora (the Government's Homes and Communities agency) Chief Executive, Andrew McKenzie, is nothing short of a reward for failure.

Rather than being able to sack McKenzie – as would be justified in just about any other country – the Board of Kāinga Ora had to both pretend that Mr McKenzie 'resigned' and pay him a $365k golden goodbye. The news comes after a damning report earlier this year about mismanagement by the agency.

Calling it a 'resignation' is about as credible as an email from a Nigerian prince. But it shows the real issue here: under New Zealand employment law, it's extremely difficult to sack even those who are clearly failing. While some may argue we need laws to protect vulnerable workers, making it nigh on impossible to get rid of lousy CEOs on $700,000+ means many boards and businesses are stuck with duds unless they get out the chequebook. An ACT MP has a proposed solution applicable for smallbusinesses, but as this example shows, it's also big organisations paying dearly to get rid of people who clearly aren't performing.

We sent our friendly mascot Porky-the-Waste-Hater down the road to Kāinga Ora head offices to present Mr McKenzie with this great 'gift' from taxpayers. 

But wait, there's more... 🤦🏻‍♂️

Sadly – for taxpayers anyway – this wasn't the only big taxpayer payout in the news. In fact, it wasn't even the biggest. Not to be outdone, our friends (I use that term rather loosely) over at the Film Commission paid their Chief Executive out more than half a million!

In her great investigative piece in Wednesday's NZ Herald, Kate MacNamara explains that David Strong was forced to go on a paid leave of absence when a television programme, The Pilgrim, in which he had an ongoing personal interest came up for funding. This clearly presented a conflict of interest as the Commission distributes funds to such projects. An independent review of his conflict-of-interest disclosures found that:

"The board and David Strong both had opportunities to better handle the disclosure and management of his conflicts of interest. Inadequately documented decisions and discussions, gaps in the implementation of these decisions, breakdowns in communication and information flows, and blurred accountabilities were significant contributing factors to the events that unfolded."

Despite this 'strong' criticism, Strong not only received $100,000 in pay while he was on leave but also a $438,700 payout in compensation when he left the job permanently. Our policy guru, James, has slated this decision, saying that "bureaucrats already earning more than ministers shouldn't be paid hundreds of thousands of dollars more not to do their jobs."

You can read Kate's full piece with James's comments over on the NZ Herald website.

Policy Victory: Local democracy defended! 🗳️💪🏻

Back in 2022, we raised the alarm about about Nanaia Mahuta's 'Review into the Future for Local Government' – a follow-on from Three Waters and another Labour pet-project that looked to radically change the way our local councils operated and de-couple them from local democratic accountability.

You might remember that we set up a submission tool to make it easy for New Zealanders to have their say on the draft recommendations and more than 14,000 of you made your views known, accounting for the vast majority of responses. Sadly, the hand-picked panel ignored these and ploughed ahead anyway. 

The final recommendations included things like lowering the voting age to 16, enabling unelected 'Te Tiriti-based appointments' to councils, changing the voting system without a referendum, introducing so-called citizens' assemblies (erm, what does that make councils then?), and much more. 

Well, there's some good news. The Local Government Minister, Simeon Brown, has put the review on the policy bonfire, labelling the proposals "ideologically-driven". He has even instructed officials to down tools so we won't waste money preparing a formal response to the report. Result!

Christchurch spends $800,000 on... graffiti 🎨🖌️

Speaking of councils, our Local Government Campaigns Manager, Sam, was quick to call out Christchurch City Council’s last-minute allocation of $800,000 for so-called street art initiatives from a capital endowment fund meant for things like water pipes and improving roads. This comes after Christchurch agreed to an almost 10 percent rates hike, which is about $320 extra a year for the average Christchurch household.

Families up and down the country are tightening their belts, and we think councils should not be exempt from practising restraint. Now more than ever is the time to shelve nice-to-have art projects and prioritise responsible spending decisions to fund core council services and keep rates as low as possible.

No more taxpayer cash for KiwiSaaS 💵🛑

Grant Robertson loved chucking money at whatever corporate special interest group had the shiniest lobbyists, and so far it’s a habit the new Government has found difficult to kick.

But Judith Collins has bucked the trend. After a media campaign led by your humble Taxpayers’ Union, the Minister has decided not to renew $11.2 million in handouts to KiwiSaaS, a tech sector lobbying group.

Now, compared to the hundreds of millions of dollars of your cash that are given out in corporate welfare, this is small fry, but it’s a step in the right direction.

So we just wanted to take this opportunity to say bravo, Judith Collins. It’s a great start, now it’s time to tell the rest of the crony capitalist industry (I'm looking at you, video game subsidies!) to take a hike.

Callum Purves Head of Campaigns New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union

Media Mentions:

NewstalkZB Morning Edition: 02 July 2024 – Kāinga Ora Golden Goodbye (01:58)

The Platform James Ross on Waka Kotahi's $5.2M App Failure & Selling the Interislander

NewstalkZB Barry Soper: ZB senior political correspondent on the Government advancing an amended version of the Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill (03:49)

RNZ The Panel with Peter Field and Niki Bezzant (Part 2) – Sam on $800k for Christchurch Graffiti (09:07)

Indian Weekender NZ Business Confidence Hits The Skids

The Post Crossings and traffic lights may stall commuter bus benefits

The Post Is rebooted fast-track a law written by the Government’s cronies?

Bassett, Brash & Hide JORDAN WILLIAMS: Luxon wants to curry favour with mainstream media

The Press Council turns to private sector for EV charging infrastructure

Greymouth Star Whatever! – Darleen Tana [print only]

Chris Lynch Media Green Party faces pressure to release investigation report on Darleen Tana

NZ Herald Former NZ Film Commission boss David Strong paid over half a million dollars’ leave and severance for nine months’ work

The Huddle The Huddle: Do we believe NZ First's theory about the Aratere grounding?

NZ Herald New poll shows Kiwis divided over whether to sell Cook Strait Interislander service

NewstalkZB Paul Goldsmith: Justice Minister talks new Ministerial Advisory Group for victims of retail crime – Interislander Poll (03:19)

A new Taxpayers Union – Curia poll in the Tāmaki electorate shows ACT’s Brooke van Velden mounting a strong challenge to incumbent National MP, Simon O’Connor.

The two major candidates for the seat are locked in a statistical tie with 35% of respondents indicating they will vote for Simon O’Conner and 33% opting for Brooke van Velden. 12% said they would vote for Labour’s Fesaitu Solomone while others pledged their support for parties without local electorate candidates: 4% for the Greens, 2% for Te Pāti Māori, and 1% for NZ First. 1% refused to answer while 13% were unsure – much lower than in other electorates polled. 

Removing undecideds and refusals, gives a decided vote of 40% for Simon O’Connor – down 13 points on the last election – and 38% for Brooke van Velden – up 33 points on 2020. Labour is on 14%, the Greens on 4%, Te Pāti Māori on 2%, and NZ First on 1%. 

The full results – including candidate name recognition, MP approval rating, and most important local issues – are available here.

New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union Head of Campaigns, Callum Purves, said: 

 “Tāmaki has been a National stronghold for decades since former Prime Minister Robert Muldoon won the seat back at the 1960 general election, but it can no longer be considered a safe blue seat. Simon O’Connor outpolled the National party vote by 15 points in 2020, but today’s poll suggests there has been a massive turnaround. 

“O’Connor and Brooke van Velden are in a statistical tie for the electorate with a massive increase in support for the ACT Party. With the difference between the two top candidates being within the margin of error for this poll, either candidate could be ahead in this contest that is likely to go right down to the wire.”

A new Taxpayers' Union – Curia poll found that New Zealanders preferred Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis (46% of respondents) to Chris Hipkins and Grant Robertson (37%) as the most trusted team to deal with the cost of living crisis. 17% of respondents were unsure.

This month’s regular Taxpayers’ Union – Curia poll showed that the cost of living was the most important issue to voters ahead of the election on 36% followed by the economy more generally on 14%.
 
Taxpayers’ Union Head of Campaigns, Callum Purves, said:
 
“People across New Zealand are doing it tough as a result of the cost of living crisis and this poll suggests that they want to see a new team take responsibility for tackling it.

“Rampant inflation – fuelled, in part, by the Government’s wasteful spending – has meant Kiwis’ dollars can buy less and less at the supermarket while the Government continues to take a higher share of their wages in tax as a result of bracket creep.

“Canny New Zealanders clearly aren’t swayed by Labour’s lollies such as GST off fresh fruit and vegetables and free dental care, but National needs to go further on its current pledges to cut back wasteful spending and commit to ongoing annual tax bracket indexation or the cost of living crisis won’t be over for a long time to come.”

A new Taxpayers' Union – Curia poll in the Northland Electorate has National’s Grant McCallum reclaiming the seat with 43% of the electorate vote. Labour's incumbent Northland MP Willow-Jean Prime is currently on 18%, while New Zealand First's Shane Jones makes up 13%.

Among the other parties’ candidates, Matt King of Democracy NZ and Reina Penney for the Green party sit at 4%, ACT's Mark Cameron is sitting at 2% of the electorate vote as is Te Pāti Māori despite the party not standing a Northland candidate. 12% of voters are still undecided or refused to answer. 

As a proportion of the decided votes the breakdown is as follows:

• National’s Grant McCallum: 49% 
• Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime: 20%
• New Zealand First’s Shane Jones: 15%
• Green’s Reina Penney: 5%
• Democracy NZ’s Matt King: 5%
• ACT’s Mark Cameron: 3%
• Te Pāti Māori (no candidate): 2%
• Others: 2%

The poll of 400 respondents was conducted on Sunday, 10 September, 2023. The full results, including the most important local issues for voters, are available here. 

Taxpayers' Union Campaigns Manager, Callum Purves, says: 

"This poll again shows another sharp swing away from Labour, after they unexpectedly won this seat at the last election from the then National Party MP, Matt King. This doesn't necessarily spell bad news for electorate MP Willow-Jean Prime who will likely make it back into Parliament with a high list position but a swing this significant will definitely be a wakeup call for incumbent Labour MPs around the country. 

“Compared to previous electorate polling, each of the three top-name recognized candidates has just points between them in one of the most geographically spread electorates in New Zealand, with all three top-polling candidates having over 40% visibility within the electorate. 

“With just under three weeks until early voting opens, this seat looks to be safely making its return to National. Even if all of the 11% undecided vote goes to Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime, that won’t be enough to keep Northland red after Election Day.”