SNAP POLL: Hipkins clear voter favourite for Labour Party leadership race

Following Thursday’s surprise announcement by Jacinda Ardern that she will be stepping down as Labour Party leader, the Taxpayers’ Union commissioned a snap poll asking a thousand New Zealanders who should take over as Prime Minister and whether leading candidates will make voters more or less likely to vote Labour in this year’s election.

Name recognition

The percentage of participants who had heard of the following potential Labour leadership candidates: 

1. Chris Hipkins 92%
2. Grant Robertson 88%
3. Nanaia Mahuta 77%
4. Megan Woods 72%
5. Michael Wood 71%
6. Kiri Allan 67%

Net favourability

Poll participants were asked if they had a favourable or unfavourable opinion of potential candidates. The net favourability score is the percentage of those who have a favourable opinion of a candidate minus the percentage of those who have an unfavourable opinion. The results, in order, are:

1. Chris Hipkins +15%
2. Grant Robertson +12%
3. Kiri Allan +7%
4. Michael Wood -7%
5. Megan Woods -10%
6. Nanaia Mahuta -26%

Net impact (more or less likely to vote Labour) 

Participants were also questioned about whether the leading candidates would make them more or less likely to vote for Labour this year. The net impact score is calculated by taking the percentage of those who said the candidate would make them more likely to vote Labour minus the percentage who said the candidate would make them less likely to vote Labour. The results, in order, are:

1. Chris Hipkins +7%
2. Grant Robertson -5%
3. Kiri Allan -6%
4. Michael Wood -16%
5. Megan Woods -19%
6. Nanaia Mahuta -28%

Who should lead Labour?

Overall, when participants were asked who they want to replace Jacinda Ardern, 30% said Chris Hipkins followed by Kiri Allan on 10% with Nanaia Mahuta on 8%, Michael Wood on 6% and Megan Woods on 5%. 41% of respondents were unsure.

Jacinda Ardern’s policies (new leader retain or scrap)

The poll also asked whether the new leader should retain or scrap signature policies of Jacinda Ardern's Government such as Three Waters, KiwiBuild, and merging TVNZ and RNZ.  The net retain score (percentage of people favouring retention of the policy minus percentage of those favouring scrapping the policy) for each policy is:

1. Auckland Light Rail +18%
2. Kiwibuild +15%
3. Compulsory Unemployment Insurance -4%
4. Reduction in speed limits -21%
5. Expanding co-governance -21%
6. TVNZ/RNZ Merger -23%
7. Three Waters -40%

The full polling report includes breakdowns by gender, age, geographic area, and party vote at the last election. You can download it here.

The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar is a member of the Board of the Taxpayers' Union and also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.

The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Thursday 19 to Friday 20 January 2023. The median response was collected on Friday 20 January 2023. The sample was a random selection 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters from an online panel. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.

This poll should be formally referred to as the 'Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Labour Party Leadership Snap Poll'.