Here are the headline results for October's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change compared to September 2026 |
|
National |
28.5% |
↓0.5 |
|
Labour |
28.2% |
↑2.3 |
|
Green |
13.3% |
↓0.6 |
|
NZ First |
12.0% | ↑3.6 |
|
ACT |
9.2% |
↓1.3 |
|
Opportunity |
4.8% |
↑0.3 |
|
Te Pāti Māori |
1.4% |
↓0.6 |
|
Other |
2.7% |
↓3.2 |
National is down 0.5 points to 28.5%, while Labour is up 2.3 points to 28.2%. The Greens are down 0.6 points to 13.3%, while New Zealand First is up 3.6 points to 12.0%. ACT is down 1.3 points to 9.2%, and Te Pāti Māori is down 0.6 points to 1.4%.
For the minor parties, Opportunity is up 0.3 points to 4.8%. However, the margin of error means there is a 42% chance Opportunity is actually above the 5% threshold. Women's Rights is on 0.9% (+0.2 points). Vision NZ is on 0.7% (+0.2 points), New Conservatives on 0.3% (-0.2 points), and NZ Loyal 0.3% (-1.2 points). Te Tai Tokerau is on 0.3% (+0.1 points) and Free Palestine is on 0.2 (-0.1 points).
|
Party |
Seats |
Change compared to September 2026 |
|
National |
37 |
↓2 |
|
Labour |
36 |
↑1 |
|
Green |
17 | ↓1 |
|
NZ First |
16 |
↑5 |
|
ACT |
12 | ↓2 |
|
Te Pāti Māori |
2 |
↓1 |
|
Opportunity |
0 |
nc |
This shows how many seats each party would win in Parliament, based on the decided vote.
National lose 2 seats to 37, while Labour gains 1 to 36.
The Greens lose 1 seat to 17, while New Zealand First rises 5 seats to 16.
ACT drops 2 seats to 12, while Te Pāti Māori loses 1 seat to 2.
Opportunity again sits on 0 in this month's poll.
The combined projected seats for the Government Parties Bloc (National, New Zealand First, ACT) is therefore 65 (+1 seat).
The combined seats for the Opposition Parties Bloc (Labour, Green, Te Pāti Māori, Opportunity) is 55 (-1 seat).
These calculations assume there are no overhang seats for National and Te Pāti Māori. An explainer for this assumption can be found here.
On these numbers, the current three parties of Government would be able to form a Government.
On this poll, the Left Bloc (Labour and the Greens) are unchanged on 53, while the Right Bloc (National and ACT) lose 4 seats on 49.
The last time either bloc commanded a majority without needing a support partner (NZ First or Te Pāti Māori) to be able to form a Government was December 2024.
For preferred Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is unchanged on 21.2%, while Chris Hipkins is up 4.1 points to 21.0%.
Winston Peters is up 3.2 points to 13.9%, David Seymour is down 1.8 points to 6.0%, and Chlöe Swarbrick is down 2.1 points to 4.9%.
When voters were asked which "party is best at", National leads on the Economy, Inflation, Education, Safety, Spending, Environment, and not increasing taxes.
Labour lead on Health, Poverty, and Housing.
For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition receive from their internal/private pollsters, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.
Media Summary Statement
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll”.
Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Thursday 01 October and Monday 05 October 2026, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 2.5% were undecided on the party vote question.
Notes
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll was conducted from Thursday 01 October to Monday 05 October 2026. The median response was collected on Sunday 04 October 2026.
The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 700 by phone and 300 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 960. There were 25 (2.5%) undecided voters and 15 (1.5%) who refused the vote question.
A random selection of 7,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months.
Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.
For seat projections it is assumed all current parliamentary parties with electorate seats will win at least one electorate seat and be eligible for List MPs. However no overhang seats are assumed or projected.
The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions.
The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area.
Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.
