Here are the headline results for September's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change compared to August 2026 |
|
National |
29.0% |
↓2.0 |
|
Labour |
25.9% |
↓1.9 |
|
Green |
13.9% |
↑3.8 |
|
ACT |
10.5% | ↑3.2 |
|
NZ First |
8.4% |
↓0.7 |
|
Opportunity |
4.5% |
↓1.6 |
|
Te Pāti Māori |
2.0% |
↑0.5 |
|
Other |
5.9% |
↓1.3 |
National is down 2.0 points to 29.0%, while Labour is down 1.9 points to 25.9%. The Greens are up 3.8 points to 13.9%, while ACT is up 3.2 points to 10.5%. New Zealand First is down 0.7 points to 8.4%, and Te Pāti Māori is up 0.5 points to 2.0%.
For the minor parties, Opportunity is down 1.6 points to 4.5%, while NZ Loyal is on 1.5% (+1.5 points). Animal Justice is on 1.2% (+1.2 points), while Women's Rights is on 0.7% (-0.7 points). Vision NZ is on 0.5% (+0.2 points), and New Conservatives are on 0.5% (+0.1 points). Outdoors and Freedom is on 0.4% (+0.3 points), and Free Palestine is on 0.3% (+0.3 points). Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party is on 0.2% (+0.2 points), Te Tai Tokerau is on 0.2% (+0.2 points).
This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll conducted in August 2026.
This shows how many seats each party would win in Parliament, based on the decided vote.
|
Party |
Seats |
Change compared to August 2026 |
|
National |
39 |
↓1 |
|
Labour |
35 |
↓1 |
|
Green |
18 | ↑5 |
|
ACT |
14 |
↑5 |
|
NZ First |
11 | ↓1 |
|
Te Pāti Māori |
3 |
↑1 |
|
Opportunity |
0 |
↓8 |
National lose 1 seat to 39, while Labour drops 1 to 35.
The Greens gain 5 seats to 18, while ACT gain 5 seats to 14.
New Zealand First drops 1 seat to 11, while Te Pāti Māori gain 1 seat to 3.
Opportunity loses 8 seats to get 0 in this month's poll.
The combined projected seats for the Government Parties Bloc (National, New Zealand First, ACT) is therefore 64 (+3 seats).
The combined seats for the Opposition Parties Bloc (Labour, Green, Te Pāti Māori, Opportunity) is 56 (-3 seats).
These calculations assume there are no overhang seats for National and Te Pāti Māori. An explainer for this assumption can be found here.
On these numbers, the current three parties of Government would be able to form a Government.
On this poll, the Left Bloc (Labour and the Greens) gain 4 seats to 53, while the Right Bloc (National and ACT) also gain 4 seats to reach 53.
The last time either bloc commanded a majority without needing a support partner (NZ First or Te Pāti Māori) to be able to form a Government was December 2024.
For preferred Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is down 2.0 points to 21.2%, while Chris Hipkins is down 2.9 points to 16.9%.
Winston Peters is up 0.2 points to 10.7%, David Seymour is up 4.0 points to 7.8%, and Chlöe Swarbrick is up 2.2 points to 7.0%.
When voters were asked which "party is best at", National leads on the Economy, Inflation, Education, Safety, Spending, Environment, and not increasing taxes.
Labour lead on Health, Poverty, and Housing.
For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition receive from their internal/private pollsters, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.
Media Summary Statement
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll”.
Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Tuesday 01 September and Thursday 03 September 2026, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 4.1% were undecided on the party vote question.
Notes
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll was conducted from Tuesday 01 September and Thursday 03 September 2026. The median response was collected on Wednesday 02 September 2026.
The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 700 by phone and 300 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 939. There were 41 (4.1%) undecided voters and 20 (2.0%) who refused the vote question.
A random selection of 7,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months.
Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.
For seat projections it is assumed all current parliamentary parties with electorate seats will win at least one electorate seat and be eligible for List MPs. However no overhang seats are assumed or projected.
The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions.
The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area.
Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.