Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: June 2024
Here are the headline results of the June 2024 Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change from last month |
|
National |
35.4% |
↓1.9 |
|
Labour |
29.4% |
↓0.6 |
|
Green |
12.7% |
↑2.5 |
|
ACT |
9.7% |
↑0.3 |
|
NZ First |
5.6% |
↑0.1 |
|
Māori |
4.0% |
↑0.9 |
|
Other |
3.2% |
↓1.3 |
National is down on last month to 35.4% (-1.9 points) while Labour is also down marginally on 29.4% (-0.6 points).
The Greens remain in third place up 2.5 points on last month to 12.7% while ACT is relatively unchanged on 9.7% (+0.3 points).
New Zealand First is also steady on 5.6% (+0.1 points) and Te Pāti Māori is up 0.9 points to 4.0%.
For the minor parties, Outdoors & Freedom is on 1.3%, TOP is on 0.8%, Vision NZ is on 0.5%, the New Conservatives are on 0.1%, and the combined total for all other parties is 0.5%.
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament, assuming all electorate seats are held:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change from last month |
|
Labour |
36 |
↓1 |
|
National |
44 |
↓3 |
|
Green |
16 |
↑3 |
|
ACT |
12 |
nc |
|
NZ First |
7 |
nc |
|
Māori |
6 |
nc |
National is down three seats on last month to 44 and Labour is also down one seat to 36.
The Greens are up three seats to 16 while ACT is unchanged on last month on 12.
Both NZ First and Te Pāti Māori are unchanged on last month on seven and six seats, respectively.
This calculation assumes that all electorate seats are held. A Parliament on these figures would include one overhang seat.
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 63 seats is down three seats from last month.
On these numbers, National and ACT would require the support of NZ First to form a government.
The combined seats for the Centre-Left is up 2 seats on 58.
Christopher Luxon’s net favourability is down 13 points on last month to -5% to put him behind Chris Hipkins who is up 4 points to 3%.
Both David Seymour and Winston Peters see drops in their net favourability from last month to put them on -18% (-11 points) and -19% (-14 points), respectively.
This month we also asked respondents about their views on two National Party Ministers. Nicola Willis has the best rating of the coalition Ministers polled on -3% while Louise Upston has a score of -12%.
39.5% of respondents named the Cost of Living as one of their top three issues, followed by Health on 32.2%, the Economy more generally on 25.1%, Education on 24.0%, and Law & Order 21.8%.
15.3% of respondents said Housing was one of their top three issues, followed by Poverty (14.0%), the Environment (12.2%), Employment (10.4%), the Treaty (7.2%), Taxes (6.1%), and Policies (2.7%).
For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are used to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.
Media Summary Statement
Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between 4 and 6 June 2024, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 4.4% were undecided on the party vote question. The full results are at www.taxpayers.org.nz/nztu_curia_2406_poll
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Tuesday 04 to Thursday 06 Jun 2024. The median response was collected on Wednesday 05 June 2024.
The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 906. There were 44 (4.4%) undecided voters and 41 (4.1%) who refused the vote question.
A random selection of 15,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months. Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.
The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
This poll was conducted in accordance with the NZ Political Polling Code, Research Association New Zealand Code of Practice and the International Chamber of Commerce/European Society for Opinion and Market Research Code on Market and Social Research.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.