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Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll May 2024

Here are the headline results for May's Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll:

Decided Party vote over time



Change compared to April 2024













NZ First






For the decided party vote, National is up slightly by 0.2 points on last month's poll to 37.3% while Labour is up to 30.0% (+4.3 points). The Greens are down 4.3 points to 10.2%, while ACT are up to 9.4% (+2.2 points).

The smaller parties are NZ First on 5.5% (-0.8 points) and Te Pāti Māori on 3.1% (-1.5% points).

For the minor parties, TOP is on 1.4%, Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.1%, and the rest combined make up the remaining 2%.

4.2% of voters were undecided after probing. 

This month's results are compared to April's Taxpayers' Union Curia Poll.

Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:




Change compared to April 2024













NZ First

7 ↓1




National maintains 47 seats while Labour is up five to 32. The Greens are down to 13 seats (down five) while ACT are up to 12 (up three). NZ First drop 1 seat to 7 while Te Pāti Māori is unchanged on 6 seats.

This calculation assumes that all electorate seats are held. A Parliament on these figures would have two overhang seats for a total of 122.

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 66 is up 2 from last month while the Centre-Left unchanged on 56 seats.

On these numbers, National and ACT would require the support of NZ First to form a government.


Christopher Luxon’s net favourability is up 15 points on last month to +8% while Chris Hipkins’s score increased 5 points to -1%.

David Seymour is up 4 points to -7% while Winston Peters is up 13 points to -5%.

This month we also asked respondents about their views on two National Party Ministers. Paul Goldsmith had a net favourability of +5% and Simeon Brown’s net favourability was +6%.

The Cost of Living continues to dominate as the most important voter issue on 35.1%, followed by the economy more generally on 13.5%.

7.5% of respondents said Law & Order was the most important issue, followed by Health (7.3%), Housing (5.1%), Environment (4.9%), Poverty and Education both on 4.4%, Treaty (3%), Taxes (2.7%), Policies more generally (2.3%), and Employment (1.3%).

Country Direction over time

The net country direction is up 11.5 points to +2.5%.

45.1% (+6.2 points) of New Zealanders think the country is heading in the right direction while 42.6% (-5.3 points) say the wrong direction. 

For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are used to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.


Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between the 05 May and 07 May 2024, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 4.2% were undecided on the party vote question.

This scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.

The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 05 May to Tuesday 07 May 2024. The median response was collected on Monday 06 May 2024.

The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 945. There were 33 undecided voters and 25 who refused the vote question.

A random selection of 15,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months. Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.

The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.

This poll was conducted in accordance with the NZ Political Polling Code, Research Association New Zealand Code of Practice and the International Chamber of Commerce/European Society for Opinion and Market Research Code on Market and Social Research.

The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.

This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.

The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union is an independent and membership-driven activist group, dedicated to being the voice for Kiwi taxpayers in the corridors of power. Its mission, lower taxes, less waste, more accountability, is supported by 200,000 subscribed members and supporters.

The Taxpayers' Union operates a 24-hour media line for comment on taxpayer issues. Representatives are available on (04) 282 0302.

High-resolution images and logos are available on request or online at http://www.taxpayers.org.nz/resource

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