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Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: April 2024

Here are the headline results for April's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:



Change compared to March 2023













NZ First






For the decided party vote, National is down 0.3 points on last month's poll to 37.1% while Labour improves marginally to 25.7% (+0.4 points). The Greens jump up by another 3.3 points taking them to 14.6%, while ACT drop even further back to 7.2% (-2.8 points).

The smaller parties are NZ First on 6.3% (-1.1 points) and Te Pāti Māori on 4.6% (+2.1% points).

For the minor parties, TOP is on 1.6%, Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.5%, Democracy NZ on 0.3%, Vision NZ is on 0.2%, New Conservatives on 0.2%, and the rest combined making up the remaining 0.8%.

5.6% of voters were undecided after probing. 

This month's results are compared to March's Taxpayers' Union Curia Poll.

Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:



Change compared to March 2023













NZ First

8 ↓1




National is down 1 seat on last month to 47 while Labour is unchanged on 32. The Greens jump up to 15 seats (up four) while ACT drop back to 13 (down four). NZ First drop 1 seat to 9 while Te Pāti Māori is unchanged on 6 seats.

This calculation assumes that all electorate seats are held. A Parliament on these figures would have no overhang seats.

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 64 seats is down 6 from last month while the Centre-Left is up 3 seats to 56.

On these numbers, National and ACT would require the support of NZ First to form a government.

Christopher Luxon’s net favourability is down 2 points on last month to -7% while Chris Hipkins’s score is down 8 points to -6%. This is the first time a Labour Leader has had a negative net favourability in the Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll. 

David Seymour is down 3 points to -11% while Winston Peters is down 6 points to -18%. 

This month we also asked respondents about their views on National Party Minister Chris Bishop who had a net favourability of -4% and new Green Party Leader Chlöe Swarbrick who had a net favourability of -19%. 

42.9% of respondents named the cost of living as one of their top three issues, followed by the economy more generally on 27.8%, health on 22.1%, education on 17.3%, law and order on 16.8%, housing on 15.5%, poverty on 14.4%, and the environment on 13.7%. Taxes and employment are on 9.9% while policies more generally and the Treaty are on 8.4%.

National leads Labour across all policy areas except ‘can provide a reliable and accessible health system’ and ‘will ensure all citizens have equal political rights’. 

National has particularly strong leads on managing the economy, spending and debt, reducing wasteful government spending, and managing inflation and the cost of living. The party’s lead over Labour is narrow when it comes to having views closest to voters on the Treaty.

For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are used to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.

Media Summary Statement

Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between 2 April and 4 April 2024, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 5.6% were undecided on the party vote question. The full results are at www.taxpayers.org.nz/poll_april_2024

The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.

The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Tuesday 02 April to Thursday 04 April 2024. The median response was collected on Wednesday 03 April 2024.

The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 935. There were 43 (5.5%) undecided voters and 23 (1.8%) who refused the vote question.

A random selection of 15,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months. Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.

The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.

This poll was conducted in accordance with the NZ Political Polling Code, Research Association New Zealand Code of Practice and the International Chamber of Commerce/European Society for Opinion and Market Research Code on Market and Social Research.

The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.

This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.

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