Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: February 2025
Here are the headline results for February's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change compared to January 2025 |
|
National |
31.9% |
↑2.3 |
|
Labour |
31.3% |
↑0.4 |
|
ACT |
10.0% |
↓0.8 |
|
Green |
13.2% | ↑3.7 |
|
Māori |
4.4% |
↓0.9 |
|
NZ First |
6.4% |
↓1.7 |
|
Other |
2.7% |
↓3.1 |
National is up 2.3 points to 31.9% from January while Labour is up 0.4 points to 31.3%. The Greens are up 3.7 points to 13.2%, while ACT is down 0.8 points to 10.0%. New Zealand First is down 1.7 points to 6.4%, while Te Pāti Māori is down 0.9 points to 4.4%.
For the minor parties, Outdoors and Freedom is at 0.9% (-0.8 points), TOP is on 0.5% (-1.6 points), and New Conservatives is on 0.2% (+0.2 points).
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change compared to January 2025 |
|
National |
39 |
↑1 |
|
Labour |
39 |
nc |
|
ACT |
12 |
↓2 |
|
Green |
16 |
↑4 |
|
NZ First |
8 | ↓2 |
|
Māori |
6 |
↓1 |
This shows how many seats each party would win in Parliament, based on the decided vote. National is up 1 seat seat from last month to 39 while Labour remains unchanged on 39. The Greens are up 4 seats at 16 while ACT is down 2 seats at 12. New Zealand First is down 2 seats on last month to 8 while Te Pāti Māori is down one to 6.
This calculation assumes that National would not win more than 39 electorate seats.
The Centre-Right bloc is projected to win 59 seats, a decline of 3 from last month. Meanwhile, the Centre-Left bloc has gained 3 seats, bringing their total to 61. Based on these numbers, Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori could form a Government.
Preference for Christopher Luxon is down 3.8 points at 20.7%, while Chris Hipkins is up 2.3 points to 17.6%.
David Seymour is on 6.4% (+0.1 points) while Winston Peters is down 0.8 points to 8.0% and Chlöe Swarbrick is at 8.9% (+0.4 points).
24.5% of respondents named the Cost of Living as their top issue, followed by the Economy at 17.0%, Health at 13.9%, Māori/Treaty issues at 7.6%, Poverty at 4.7% and Employment at 3.8%.
34.2% of respondents said the country was moving in the right direction, compared to 50% who said it was moving in the wrong direction. This gives a net right/wrong direction result of -15.8% (down 1.8 points).
For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are use to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.
Media Summary Statement
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll”.
Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Sunday 02 and Tuesday 04 February 2025, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 5.4% were undecided on the party vote question.
Notes
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 02 and Tuesday 04 February 2025,. The median response was collected on Monday 03 February 2025
The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 908. There were 54 (5.4%) undecided voters and 25 (2.5%) who refused the vote question.
A random selection of 15,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months.
Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.
The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed.
The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area.
Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.
Showing 1 reaction