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Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: January 2025

Here are the headline results for January's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:

 

Party

Support

Change compared to December 2024

Labour

30.9%

↑4.0

National

29.6%

4.6

ACT

10.8%

↓2.2

Green

9.5% ↑1.2

Māori

5.3%

↓0.2

NZ First

8.1%

↑2.7

Other

5.8%

↑2.5

National is down 4.6 points to 29.6% from December while Labour is up 4.0 points to 30.9%. The Greens are up 1.2 points to 9.5%, while ACT is down 2.2 points to 10.8%. New Zealand First is up 2.7 points to 8.1%, while Te Pāti Māori is down 0.2 points to 5.3%.

For the minor parties, Outdoors and Freedom is at 1.7% (-0.3 points), TOP is at 2.1% (+1 points), and Vision NZ is at 0.6 (+0.4 points).

Party

Seats

Change compared to December 2024

Labour

39

↑5

National

38

↓6

ACT

14

↓3

Green

12

↑1

NZ First

10 ↑3

Māori

7

nc

This shows how many seats each party would win in Parliament, based on the decided vote. National is down six seats from last month to 38 while Labour is up five seats reaching 39. The Greens are up one seat at 12 while ACT is down three seats at 14. New Zealand First is up three seats from last month to 10 while Te Pāti Māori remains on 7. 

This calculation assumes that National would not have an overhang and lose at least five electorate seats.

The Centre-Right bloc is projected to hold 62 seats, a decline of six from last month. Based on these numbers, National and ACT would need NZ First's support to form a government. Meanwhile, the Centre-Left bloc has gained six seats, bringing their total to 58.

Preference for Christopher Luxon is down 2.6 points at 24.5%, while Chris Hipkins is down 4.6 points to 15.3%.

David Seymour is on 6.3% (+0.5 points) while Winston Peters is up 3 points to 8.8% and Chlöe Swarbrick is at 8.5% (+4 points).

22.3% of respondents named the Cost of Living as their top issue, followed by the Economy at 17.5%, Health at 11.6%, Māori/Treaty issues at 8.0%, the Environment at 5.8% and Education at 4.5%.

39% of respondents said the country was moving in the right direction, compared to 53% who said it was moving in the wrong direction. This gives a net right/wrong direction result of -14% (down 17 points).

For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are use to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.


Media Summary Statement

This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll”.

Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Thursday 09 and Monday 13 January 2025, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 5.4% were undecided on the party vote question.


Notes

The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.

The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Thursday 09 and Monday 13 January 2025,. The median response was collected on Sunday 12 January 2025.

The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 908. There were 54 (5.4%) undecided voters and 25 (2.5%) who refused the vote question.

A random selection of 15,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months.

Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.

The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed.

The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area.

Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.

The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.

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