Here are the headline results for April's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change compared to March 2025 |
|
National |
33.5% |
↓0.1 |
|
Labour |
29.8% |
↓4.3 |
|
Green |
11.0% |
↑1.0 |
|
ACT |
10.0% | ↑2.3 |
|
NZ First |
7.4% |
↑2.3 |
|
Māori |
4.3% |
↓2.2 |
|
Other |
3.9% |
↑0.9 |
National is down 0.1 points to 33.5% while Labour is down 4.3 points to 29.8%. The Greens are up 1.0 point to 11.0%, while ACT is up to 10.0% (+2.3 points). New Zealand First is up 2.3 points to 7.4% while Te Pāti Māori is down 2.2 points to 4.3%.
For the minor parties, TOP is on 1.5% (+1.0 points), Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.0% (+0.4 points), and New Conservatives are on 0.4% (+0.4 points).
This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union – Curia poll conducted in March 2025.
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change compared to March 2025 |
|
National |
42 |
NC |
|
Labour |
37 |
↓5 |
|
Green |
14 |
↑2 |
|
ACT |
13 |
↑3 |
|
NZ First |
9 | ↑3 |
|
Māori |
6 |
↓2 |
This shows how many seats each party would win in Parliament, based on the decided vote. National stays the same from last month at 42 seats while Labour is down 5 on 37.
The Greens gain 2 seats to 14 while ACT is up 3 on last month to 13 seats.
New Zealand First is up 3 seats on last month to 9, while Te Pāti Māori is down 2 to 6.
This calculation assumes that National does not win more than 42 electorate seats.
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 64 is up 6 seats from last month. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is down 5 to 57. On these numbers, National and ACT could form a government with the support of New Zealand First.
Christopher Luxon is up from last month to 21.9% (+1.6 points) while Chris Hipkins is down 1.8 points to 18.9%.
Winston Peters is at 12.8% (+4.2 points). This is the first time Peters has polled over 10% as Preferred PM in our poll.
David Seymour is at 8.0% (+3.0 points) and Chlöe Swarbrick at 4.2% (-0.6 points).
Christopher Luxon’s net favourability is -6% (+4 points) while Chris Hipkins' is 2% (-2 points). David Seymour is -18% (+10 points) while Winston Peters drops 3 points to -4%.
For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are use to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.
Media Summary Statement
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll”.
Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Saturday 29 March and Tuesday 01 April 2025, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 5.4% were undecided on the party vote question.
Notes
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Saturday 29 March and Tuesday 01 April 2025,. The median response was collected on Monday 31 March 2025.
The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 700 by phone and 300 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 920. There were 50 (5.0%) undecided voters and 25 (2.5%) who refused the vote question.
A random selection of 7,500 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months.
Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.
The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed.
The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area.
Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.