Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: March 2025
Here are the headline results for March's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change compared to February 2025 |
|
Labour |
34.1% |
↑2.8 |
|
National |
33.6% |
↑1.7 |
|
Green |
10.0% |
↓3.2 |
|
ACT |
7.7% | ↓2.3 |
|
Māori |
6.5% |
↑2.1 |
|
NZ First |
5.1% |
↓1.3 |
|
Other |
3.0% |
↑0.3 |
National is up 1.7 points to 33.6% while Labour gain 2.8 points to 34.1%. The Greens are down 3.2 points to 10.0%, while ACT are down to 7.7% (-2.3 points). New Zealand First are down 1.3 points to 5.1% while Te Pāti Māori is up 2.1 points to 6.5%.
For the minor parties, Outdoors and Freedom is on 0.6% (-0.3 points), TOP is on 0.5% (0.0 points), and Vision NZ is on 0.4% (+0.4 points).
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change compared to February 2025 |
|
Labour |
42 |
↑3 |
|
National |
42 |
↑3 |
|
Green |
12 |
↓4 |
|
ACT |
10 |
↓2 |
|
NZ First |
6 | ↓2 |
|
Māori |
8 |
↑2 |
This shows how many seats each party would win in Parliament, based on the decided vote. National is up 3 seats on last month to 42 while Labour is also up 3 on 42.
The Greens lose 4 seats to 12 while ACT is down 2 on last month to 10 seats.
New Zealand First is down 2 seats on last month to 6, while Te Pāti Māori is up 2 to 8.
This calculation assumes that National does not win more than 42 electorate seats.
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 58 is down 1 seat from last month. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is up 1 to 62. On these numbers, National and ACT could not form a government even with the support of New Zealand First.
Christopher Luxon is down from last month at 20.3% (-0.4 points) while Chris Hipkins is up 3.1 points to 20.7%.
David Seymour is at 5.0% (-1.4 points), Winston Peters at 8.6% (+0.6 points) and Chlöe Swarbrick at 4.8% (-4.1 points).
Christopher Luxon’s net favourability is -10% (+2 points) while Chris Hipkins’ is 4% (+7 points). David Seymour drops to -28% (-4 points) while Winston Peters rises 5 points to -1%.
For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are use to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.
Media Summary Statement
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll”.
Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Sunday 02 and Tuesday 04 March 2025, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 5.4% were undecided on the party vote question.
Notes
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 02 and Tuesday 04 March 2025,. The median response was collected on Monday 03 March 2025
The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 924. There were 51 (5.1%) undecided voters and 25 (2.5%) who refused the vote question.
A random selection of 15,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months.
Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.
The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed.
The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area.
Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.
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