Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: April 2023
Here are the headline results of the April 2023 Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change from last month |
|
Labour |
36.9% |
↑1.4 |
|
National |
36.5% |
↑1.7 |
|
ACT |
9.5% |
↑0.2 |
|
Green |
6.7% |
↑1.0 |
|
Māori |
2.9% |
↑1.5 |
|
NZ First |
2.6% |
↓1.6 |
|
Other |
4.8% |
↓4.4 |
Labour holds its marginal lead as it rises 1.4 points on last month to 36.9% while National is up 1.7 points to 36.5%. ACT rises 0.2 points to 9.5% and the Greens are up 1 point to 6.7%.
The smaller parties were the Māori Party 2.9% (+1.5 points), NZ First on 2.6% (-1.6 points), New Conservatives on 1.7% (-0.8 points), Democracy NZ on 1.6% (+1.1 points), and TOP on 0.8% (-0.9 points).
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament, assuming all electorate seats are held:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change from last month |
|
Labour |
48 |
↓1 |
|
National |
47 |
↓1 |
|
ACT |
12 |
↓1 |
|
Green |
9 |
↑1 |
|
Māori |
4 |
↑2 |
Both Labour and National are down 1 seat each to 48 and 47, respectively. ACT is also down 1 seat to 12 while the Greens are up 1 on 9 seats. The Māori Party is up 2 seats to 4.
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 59 seats is down 2 on last month but remains marginally ahead of the combined total for the Centre-Left of 57 seats (no change).
Neither bloc can form government on its own and the Māori Party holds the balance of power.
52% (-2 points) of voters have a favourable view of Chris Hipkins while 24% have an unfavourable view (+3 points) for a net favourability of +28% (-5 points). Both Christopher Luxon (-4 points) and David Seymour are on -6% (-7 points).
Finance Minister, Grant Robertson, has a net favourability of -8% while Environment Minister, David Parker, has a net favourability of -21%.
Chris Hipkins also now has a negative net favourability rating with National voters of -5% down 18 points from +13% last month.
Among undecided voters, Chris Hipkins has a slight positive net favourability of +1% down 35 points on last month. Christopher Luxon is on -15% while David Seymour is on 0%.
National improves its position over Labour as the best economic manager with a 17-point lead (up 3 points on last month). They also have a 12-point (+3 points) lead on law and order and a 11-point lead on tackling inflation (-1 point).
Labour maintains its lead of 11 points (nc) on leadership but diminishes its lead for health of 9 points (-7 points) and its lead on jobs of 2 points (-7 points).
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The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar is a member of the Board of the Taxpayers' Union and also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 2 to Wednesday 5 April 2023. The median response was collected on Tuesday 4 April 2023. The sample size was 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters: 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 15,000 nationwide phone numbers. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.