Taxpayers' Union Curia Poll: November 2022
Exclusive to members and supporters, we can reveal the results of the thirteenth Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll.
The polling period was Thursday 3 - Tuesday 8 November 2022.
Here are the headline results:
|
Party |
Support |
Change from last month |
|
National |
37.6% |
↓1.6 |
|
Labour |
35.3% |
↑0.9 |
|
Green |
7.8% |
↑0.6 |
|
ACT |
9.9% |
↑0.5 |
|
Māori |
1.6% |
↓0.5 |
|
NZ First |
3.8% |
↑1.7 |
|
Other |
4.0% |
↓1.7 |
There is little change for National and Labour. National are down 1 point to 38% and Labour up 1 point to 35%. ACT and Greens are up 1 point each to 10% and 8%, respectively.
The smaller parties are NZ First on 3.8%, TOP on 2.1%, Māori Party on 1.6% and New Conservatives 0.9%.
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament, assuming all electorate seats are held:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change from last month |
|
National |
49 |
↓2 |
|
Labour |
46 |
↑1 |
|
Green |
10 |
↑1 |
|
ACT |
13 |
↑1 |
|
Māori |
2 |
↓1 |
National is down 2 seats to 49 while Labour is up 1 seat to 46. Both ACT and the Greens are up 1 seat to 13 and 10, respectively. The Māori Party drops back 1 seat to 2.
The Centre-Right could still govern alone although have dropped back 1 seat from last month to 62 seats. The Centre-Left is up 2 seats from 54 to 56.
Jacinda Ardern rises 2 points to 35% while Christopher Luxon drops 2 points to 21%.
David Seymour is down 1.2 points to 6.1% while Winston Peters drops 1.1 points to 2.5%. Chlöe Swarbrick is up 1 point to 5.8% while the two official Green co-leaders are on just 1.0% combined.
|
Preferred Prime Minister |
This month |
Change from last month |
|
Jacinda Ardern |
35.0% |
↑2.1 |
|
Christopher Luxon |
21.1% |
↓1.4 |
|
David Seymour |
6.1% |
↓1.2 |
|
Chloe Swarbrick |
5.8% |
↑1.0 |
|
Winston Peters |
2.5% |
↓1.1 |
The cost of living at 23% (-1 point) remains the most important issue followed by housing at 11% (+5 points) and the economy more generally on 10% (-3 points). Health is up 4 points to 9%.
For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are used to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar is a member of the Board of the Taxpayers' Union and also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll was conducted from Thursday 3 to Tuesday 8 November 2022. The sample size was 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters 600 by phone and 400 by online panel. The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 20,000 nationwide phone numbers. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll”.