Taxpayers' Union Curia Poll: June 2022

Exclusive to members and supporters, we can reveal the results of the tenth Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll.

The polling period was Wednesday 1 June - Sunday 12 June 2022.

Here are the headline results:

National remains in the lead with the small parties hit by a larger proportion of Kiwis choosing 'other' parties, such as the New Conservatives, Advance, TOP etc. Labour holds steady. 

Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:

Back in January, the Centre-Left bloc had a nine-seat lead over the Centre-Right. By last month, the Centre-Right had taken a lead of five seats. This month's poll suggests that lead has increased slightly to six seats, with 62 seats for National/ACT compared to 56 seats for Labour/Green. Meanwhile the Centre bloc (NZ First/Māori) has 2 seats. In general, at least 61 seats are required to govern.

(For the purposes of this chart, the Māori Party is not included in the two major blocs.)

The issues of concern to voters are also changing. Law & Order has increased to be the third most important issue after cost of living and the economy.

Net direction is strongly negative at -14% i.e. on balance, New Zealanders are saying the country is heading in the “wrong” direction. For the first time in our poll, "wrong direction" has hit 50%, versus 36% for "right direction".

For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are used to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.

The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar is a member of the Board of the Taxpayers' Union and also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.

The Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll was conducted from Wednesday 1 June to Sunday 12 June 2022. The sample size was 1,200 eligible New Zealand voters 800 by phone and 400 by online panel. The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 20,000 nationwide phone numbers. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,200 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll”.