Taxpayers' Union Curia Poll: July 2022

Exclusive to members and supporters, we can reveal the results of the eleventh Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll.

The polling period was Sunday 03 - Sunday 10 July 2022.

Here are the headline results:

While this result is broadly positive for the Left, there is very little shift in specific party support aside from a reduction in the share of respondents choosing 'other' parties and a boost for Te Pāti Māori.

Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament, assuming all electorate seats are held:

If Te Pāti Māori refused to support a Centre-Right coalition, this result would mean a hung Parliament and likely a second election. See our newsletter for commentary on this.

For the third consecutive month in the Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll, the Centre-Right bloc is ahead of the Centre-Left. However, the Centre-Right no longer has enough seats to govern without the support of Te Pāti Māori. (For the purposes of this chart, Te Pāti Māori is not included in the two major blocs.)

Jacinda Ardern has improved her position as preferred Prime Minister, while Christopher Luxon's personal support has dropped off after the United States Supreme Court's abortion ruling.

In terms of what issues respondents identify as their major voting issue, COVID-19 continues to fade in importance. Focus on the cost of living has also eased off.

For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are used to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.

The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar is a member of the Board of the Taxpayers' Union and also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.

The Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 03 July to Sunday 10 July 2022. The sample size was 1,200 eligible New Zealand voters 800 by phone and 400 by online panel. The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 20,000 nationwide phone numbers. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,200 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll”.