Here are the headline results for July's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change compared to June 2025 |
|
National |
33.9% |
↑0.4 |
|
Labour |
31.6% |
↓3.2 |
|
NZ First |
9.8% |
↑3.7 |
|
Green |
9.4% | ↑1.2 |
|
ACT |
9.1% |
NC |
|
Māori |
3.5% |
↑0.2 |
|
Other |
2.7% |
↓2.3 |
National is up 0.4 points to 33.9%, while Labour is down 3.2 points to 31.6%. New Zealand First is up 3.7 points to 9.8%, while the Greens are up 1.2 points to 9.4%. ACT are unchanged on 9.1%, while Te Pāti Māori is up 0.2 points to 3.5%.
For the minor parties, TOP is on 1.2% (-0.6 points ), New Conservatives on 0.5% (-0.2 points), and Outdoors and Freedom in on 0.1% (-1.0 points).
This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union – Curia poll conducted in June 2025.
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change compared to July 2025 |
|
National |
42 |
NC |
|
Labour |
39 |
↓5 |
|
NZ First |
12 |
↑4 |
|
Green |
12 |
↑2 |
|
ACT |
11 | ↓1 |
|
Māori |
6 |
NC |
This shows how many seats each party would win in Parliament, based on the decided vote. National remains on 42 seats, while Labour drops 5 to 39 seats.
NZ First gain 4 to 12 seats, while the Greens gain 2 to 12 seats.
ACT drops 1 to 11 seats, while Te Pāti Māori remains on 6 seats.
This calculation assumes that National does not win more than 42 electorate seats.
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 65 is up 3 seat from last month. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is down 3 to 57. On these numbers, National and ACT could form a government with the support of New Zealand First.
Christopher Luxon is down from last month to 19.7% (-0.6 points), while Chris Hipkins is up 1.1 points to 19.6%.
Winston Peters is at 9.3% (+1.3 points), Chlöe Swarbrick is at 7.0% (+1.4 points), and David Seymour is at 5.7% (-0.3 points).
21.6% (+3.5 points) say the Cost of Living is their most important issue, followed by the Economy more generally on 19.1% (-1.1 points). Health follows on 13.3% (+1.4 points), followed by Employment on 7.4% and Poverty at 4.5%.
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Media Summary Statement
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll”.
Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Wednesday 02 and Sunday 06 July 2025, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 7.9% were undecided on the party vote question.
Notes
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Wednesday 02 and Sunday 06 July 2025. The median response was collected on Thursday 03 July 2025.
The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 780 by phone and 220 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 889. There were 79 (7.9%) undecided voters and 32 (3.2%) who refused the vote question.
A random selection of 10,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months.
Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.
The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed.
The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area.
Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.