Here are the headline results for June's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change compared to May 2025 |
|
Labour |
34.8% |
↑1.6 |
|
National |
33.5% |
↓1.1 |
|
ACT |
9.1% |
↓0.4 |
|
Green |
8.2% | ↓0.9 |
|
NZ First |
6.1% |
↓1.3 |
|
Māori |
3.3% |
↓0.6 |
|
Other |
5.0% |
↑2.7 |
Labour is up 1.6 points to 34.8% while National is down 1.1 points to 33.5%. ACT is down 0.4 points to 9.1%, while the Greens are down 0.9 points to 8.2%. New Zealand First are down 1.3% to 6.1%, while Te Pāti Māori is down 0.6 points to 3.3%.
For the minor parties, TOP is on 1.8% (+1.3 points), Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.1% (+0.7 points), New Conservatives are on 0.7% (+0.7 points), and Vision NZ is on 0.6% (+0.2 points).
This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union – Curia poll conducted in May 2025.
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change compared to May 2025 |
|
Labour |
44 |
↑3 |
|
National |
42 |
NC |
|
ACT |
12 |
NC |
|
Green |
10 |
↓1 |
|
NZ First |
8 | ↓1 |
|
Māori |
6 |
NC |
This shows how many seats each party would win in Parliament, based on the decided vote. Labour is up 3 on last month to 44 seats, while National remains on 42 seats.
ACT stays on 12 seats, while the Greens drop one seat to 10.
New Zealand First drops one seat to 8, while Te Pāti Māori remain on 6 seats.
This calculation assumes that National does not win more than 42 electorate seats.
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 62 is down 1 seat from last month. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is up 2 to 60. On these numbers, National and ACT could form a government with the support of New Zealand First.
Christopher Luxon is down from last month to 20.3% (-4.2%) while Chris Hipkins is down 1.5 points to 18.5%.
Winston Peters is at 8.0% (-0.1 points). David Seymour is at 6.0% (-0.7 points) and Chlöe Swarbrick is at 5.6% (+0.6 points).
20.2% (+3.7 points) say the Economy is their most important issue, followed by the Cost of Living at 18.1% (-8.3 points). Health follows on 11.9% (-5.0 points), followed by Employment on 5.8% and the Environment on 4.5%.
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Media Summary Statement
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll”.
Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Saturday 07 and Monday 09 June 2025, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 6.1% were undecided on the party vote question.
Notes
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Saturday 07 and Monday 09 June 2025 2025. The median response was collected on Friday 02 May 2025.
The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 916. There were 61 (6.1%) undecided voters and 23 (2.3%) who refused the vote question.
A random selection of 10,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months.
Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.
The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed.
The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area.
Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.