Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: May 2023
Here are the headline results of the May 2023 Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change from last month |
|
National |
35.6% |
↓0.9 |
|
Labour |
33.8% |
↓3.1 |
|
ACT |
12.7% |
↑3.2 |
|
Green |
7.0% |
↑0.3 |
|
Māori |
3.7% |
↑0.8 |
|
NZ First |
2.6% |
nc |
|
Other |
4.5% |
↓0.3 |
National drops 0.9 points on last month to be on 35.6% but retakes the lead over Labour who falls back 3.1 points to 33.8%.
ACT sees a boost in support of 3.2 points to 12.7% while the Greens are relatively unchanged on 7.0% (up 0.3 points on last month).
The smaller parties are the Māori Party on 3.7% (+0.8 points), NZ First on 2.6% (nc), TOP on 1.7% (+0.9 points), New Conservatives on 1.6% (-0.1 points), and Democracy NZ 0.3% (-1.3 points).
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament, assuming all electorate seats are held:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change from last month |
|
Labour |
44 |
↓4 |
|
National |
46 |
↓1 |
|
ACT |
16 |
↑4 |
|
Green |
9 |
nc |
|
Māori |
5 |
↑1 |
Labour is down 4 seats on last month to 44 while National is down 1 seat to 46. ACT is up 4 seats to 12 while the Greens are unchanged on 8 seats. The Māori Party is up one seat to 5.
The Centre-Right are in a position to form Lab-Gre Nat-ACT government with a combined total of 62 seats, which is up 3 on last month. The combined total for the Centre-Left drops 4 seats to 53.
44% (-8 points) of voters having a favourable view of Chris Hipkins while 22% have an unfavourable view (-2 points) for a net favourability of +22%.
Christopher Luxon is on -7% net favourability while David Seymour is at -11%.
Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick has a net favourability of -10% (-1 point on August 2022) while newly independent MP Elizabeth Kerekere has a score of -24%.
Chris Hipkins net favourability score is 6 points lower than last month and down 11 points on his March peak while Christopher Luxon’s is down 1 points to his lowest level since he became National Party leader and David Seymour’s decreases by 17 points.
National improves its position over Labour as the best economic manager with a 22-point lead (up 5 points on last month). It also has a 15-point lead on tackling inflation (+4 points), 13-point (+1 points) lead on law and order and retakes the lead over Labour on jobs by 2 points (+ 4 points).
Labour maintains its lead of 13 points (+2 points) on leadership but further diminishes its lead for health of 6 points (-3 points).
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The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar is a member of the Board of the Taxpayers' Union and also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Tuesday 2 to Sunday 7 May 2023. The median response was collected on Thursday 4 May 2023. The sample size was 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters: 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 15,000 nationwide phone numbers. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.