No Surplus This Decade: Robertson-Willis fiscal strategy will lead to disastrous shock

The Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update has confirmed taxpayers’ worst fears, as plans for a surplus have slipped back another year to 2030.

• In December 2023, a surplus was forecast for 2027.
• Budget 2024 pushed plans for a surplus out to 2028.
• HYEFU 2024 delayed surplus a further year to 2029, despite introducing the OBEGALx measure which delivers a more favourable reading of the books.

Commenting on this, Taxpayers’ Union Spokesman James Ross said:

“When Nicola Willis took up the reins as Finance Minister in December 2023, a surplus was only three and a half years away in 2027. Now it’ll take six and a half years instead, with the surplus slipping further back to 2030.”

“The Finance Minister says we’re on the right track to reach surplus, but we seem to be walking backwards. Every time Treasury opens the books, balancing them seems like more of a pipe-dream.”

“The Budget in May predicted a $214 million surplus by 2029. Within six months, that’s deteriorated by more than $515 per household, projecting a $945 million deficit for the year even using the Minister’s custom OBEGALx measure.”

“There’s only so far we can keep kicking the can down the road. The Robertson-Willis spend-and-borrow approach isn’t working, and Budget 2026 needs to deliver a realistic pathway back to surplus.”