NEW POLL: Hipkins overtakes Luxon as preferred Prime Minister, Centre-Left extend lead

More bad news for the Coalition Government following the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, as Labour edges ahead of National and the Centre-Left bloc increases its lead.

The poll, conducted between 02 and 04 March, shows National up 1.7 points to 33.6 percent, while Labour gains 2.8 points to 34.1 percent.

The Greens drop 3.2 points to 10.0 percent, while ACT declines 2.3 points to 7.7 percent. New Zealand First is down 1.3 points to 5.1 percent, while Te Pāti Māori rises 2.1 points to 6.5 percent.

The poll results and information about the methodology are available on the Taxpayers' Union website at https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/march25_nztupollsuhg

For the minor parties, Outdoors and Freedom is on 0.6 percent (-0.3 points), TOP remains at 0.5 percent, and Vision NZ is on 0.4 percent (+0.4 points).

This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union–Curia Poll conducted in February 2025, available at https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/poll_feb_25_basjfgas

Based on these results, the Centre-Right bloc drops 1 seat to 58, while the Centre-Left bloc gains 1 seat to 62. On these numbers, National and ACT could not form a government even with the support of New Zealand First.

National gains 3 seats to 42, while Labour also rises by 3 to 42. The Greens lose 4 seats, bringing them to 12, while ACT drops 2 to 10 seats. New Zealand First falls by 2 seats to 6, and Te Pāti Māori gains 2 to a total of 8 seats.

For the first time since the election, Chris Hipkins has overtaken Christopher Luxon as preferred PM.

Christopher Luxon drops slightly to 20.3 percent (-0.4 points), while Chris Hipkins jumps 3.1 points to 20.7 percent. David Seymour falls to 5.0 percent (-1.4 points), Winston Peters is at 8.6 percent (+0.6 points), and Chlöe Swarbrick falls 4.1 points to 4.8 percent.

Commenting on the results, Taxpayers’ Union Spokesman James Ross said:

"Kiwis elected this Government to fix the economic mess. Unless the Government starts delivering meaningful growth, the polls are only going to show them slip further."

"Luxon losing his top spot as preferred Prime Minister for the first time has to be a wake-up call. We're neck-deep in the worst economic downturn in three decades, and the country needs to see a plan to rebuild the economy."

"With Budget 2025 in just over two months' time, now's the time for the Government to be laser-focused on delivering economic growth. Kiwis need high bang-for-buck reforms like full capital expensing, because managed decline has lost its appeal."