NEW POLL: Centre-Left with narrow lead; Labour lead on keeping tax low

The Centre-Left bloc could form a Government, but with the finest possible margin according to the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll.

This poll shows Labour gain 0.3 points to 34.4 percent, while National drops 2.9 points to 28.4 percent.

The Greens gain 0.2 points to 10.5 percent, while New Zealand First drops 0.8 points to 9.7 percent. ACT gains 0.8 points to 7.5 percent, while Te Pāti Māori gains 0.3 points to 3.2 percent.

Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/tucur_mar2026poll

Minor parties were TOP on 1.9 percent (+0.5 points), NZ Outdoors and Freedom on 1.7 percent (+0.5 points), Vision NZ on 0.2 percent (-0.2 points), and New Conservatives on 0.8 percent (+0.7 points). 

This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll conducted in February 2026, available at www.taxpayers.org.nz/0226_polltu, which showed a hung Parliament.

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Left increases 1 to 61. The combined seats for the Centre-Right drops 1 to 59.

On these numbers, the Centre-Left bloc could form a Government.

Labour gains 1 seat to 44, while National drops 3 seats to 36. New Zealand First and the Greens both remain on 13 seats. ACT gains 2 seats to 10, while Te Pāti Māori remain on 4.

Polling on whether voters believed Labour or National were better managers of specific policies, National led on the Economy and Spending. Labour led on Health, Poverty, Inflation, Education, Safety, Housing, Environment, and not increasing taxes.  

Commenting on the results, Taxpayers' Union Spokesman James Ross said:

"Yet again, this poll confirms that the election race is as close as it can be."

"The Government ought to be concerned with the issues Labour now lead on. It will shock National's election strategists that more voters are picking Labour as more trusted 'not to put up your taxes'."