NEW POLL: Coalition Preference Has Right Bloc Ahead, With NZ First Voters Leading The Charge

New Taxpayers' Union–Curia polling shows a plurality of voters prefer a National/ACT/NZ First coalition over a Labour/Greens/Te Pāti Māori alternative, with NZ First's own base backing the right bloc nearly unanimously.

A nationwide poll of 1,027 New Zealanders asked which of two three-party coalitions they would prefer to form the next government:

• Nat/ACT/NZF: 45 percent
• Lab/Gre/TPM: 39 percent
• Unsure: 16 percent

The 16 percent undecided is higher than the typical undecided rate on party vote.
Coalition preference tracks tightly with the status quo:

• ACT: 98 percent Nat/ACT/NZF
• National: 86 percent Nat/ACT/NZF
• NZ First: 83 percent Nat/ACT/NZF
• Te Pāti Māori: 95 percent Lab/Gre/TPM
• Greens: 93 percent Lab/Gre/TPM
• Labour: 88 percent Lab/Gre/TPM

On current seat projections the right bloc holds 65 seats to the left's 55, meaning neither side can govern without NZ First's 17, and 83 percent of NZ First voters want Peters to stay with National and ACT.

Taxpayers' Union spokesman, Tory Relf, said:

"In an MMP environment the coalition question matters as much as any single party's poll number. Voters aren't just picking a party, they are picking a government, and a plurality want a centre-right one."

"NZ First voters have sent an unmistakable signal. Eighty-three percent want Winston Peters back on the right side of the aisle. Only two percent want him to switch. Four in five NZ First voters expect Peters to re-elect this coalition, not swap it out."

"For Labour, that presents a real challenge. Hipkins may be narrowing the party-vote gap, but turning that into a credible alternative government is a different task altogether."

"The number parties will be eyeing up is the 16 percent undecided on coalition preference. That is a larger pool than any minor party commands. Whichever bloc makes the more compelling case will pick them up, and with them, the balance of power."