Opportunity Party cost breakdown

• Opportunity's climate resilience fund would cost $5 billion, according to the party's own costings.
• Although we have not included Opportunity's $60 billion capital expenditure for infrastructure investment, from this week we are including the interest costs on this additional debt. By Opportunity's own estimates, this would cost taxpayers $12 billion over four years, or $5,792 per household.

The Opportunity Party has announced $218 billion in new spending over the next four years. This is equivalent to $105,406 per household. The vast majority of this is driven by the party's flagship Citizen's Income (Universal Basic Income) policy.

Social spending
Opportunity's Citizen's Income would cost $69.6 billion a year at face value. Netted against $37.8 billion in annual savings from abolishing existing welfare benefits and $3.8 billion in welfare administration savings, but adding back $15.6 billion a year in supplementary welfare payments the party says would still be needed, the net annual cost comes to $43.6 billion — or $174.5 billion over four years.

Beyond the UBI, Opportunity's social spending includes $1.5 billion to reinstate the 2025 smokefree legislation, costed using Treasury's advice on the resulting revenue impact; $380 million to forgive overseas student loans and $320 million to restore polytechnic funding, both taken at the party's own word; $31.2 million to support offsite builders who take on apprentices, based on doubling the existing $500-a-month apprentice boost for around 1,300 offsite construction learners; and $14.7 million to grow the number of te reo Māori teachers, based on Budget 2025's per-teacher funding rate. Total social spending commitments (including the UBI) come to $176.8 billion over four years.

Economic development
Opportunity's economic development commitments total $40.7 billion. The largest single item is an estimated $15.9 billion to refund GST collected on construction activity back to local councils, based on IRD data. The party has also committed $2.4 billion for a tax credit for technology adoption, $700 million to expand contestable research funds, $500 million to restore the core science budget and $400 million for early- and mid-career researchers — part of a broader $4.3 billion innovation, science and technology package that also includes a $120 million widened R&D tax credit, $106 million to double incubator funding and $80 million for polytechnic PRO bulk funding.

On transport, Opportunity would spend $1.3 billion making all public transport free, based on NZTA fare revenue data, and $500 million to electrify the bus fleet. The party would also spend $484 million on energy initiatives — including $400 million for small-scale generation projects — plus $320 million to expand the Warm Homes programme, $216 million on business and trade support (which includes $136 million tax deduction for impact investment and FinCap to SMEs), $108 million to boost the infrastructure agency Te Waihanga, and $100 million on competition measures including an $80 million Commerce Commission uplift. All of these figures are taken at the party's own word unless otherwise noted. Opportunity's proposed $60 billion infrastructure fund and $2 billion in small-scale generation capex have not been included in this total, as they are intended to be funded through capital rather than operating expenditure.

Opportunity have also announced their Industry Energy Resilience Fund, aiming to assist New Zealand industry to electrify. We have costed this at $407 million over four years, or $196 per household. Their Climate Resilience Fund would cost $5 billion, and the interest on their borrowed $60 billion for infrastructure investment would cost $12 billion over four years.

Environment & arts
Opportunity has committed $750 million to environment and conservation policies: $100 million for ocean conservation, taken at the party's own word, and support sectors reducing emissions and adapting to climate change, costed based on the level of GIDI funding provided by the previous Government at $650 million.

Government services and administration
Opportunity government services commitments total $217.6 million. The largest is $160 million for a new Anti-Corruption Body, followed by a $40 million boost to the Electoral Commission and $8 million for an Independent Policy Costing Unit, all taken at the party's own word. The party has also committed $8 million to establish citizen assemblies, based on the cost of similar assemblies in Scotland (adjusted for currency and population), and $1.6 million for a Parliamentary Commissioner for Citizen Vote, based on 30% of the salary of the existing Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment. Opportunity's proposed lobbyist register has not been costed, as the party has not indicated it would carry a material fiscal cost.

(t) policies where we've taken parties' costings at face value.
(o) uncosted policies that we have had to cost ourselves.
(d) policies where we have disputed parties' own costings.

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