New Zealand First cost breakdown

Week 9 update:

• NZ First’s total rises by $0.6 billion to $93.93 billion, or $45,335 per household (up from $45,039). Its ten-point rail policy adds $617.1 million over and above existing baselines.

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New Zealand First has announced $93.9 billion in new spending over the next four years. This is equivalent to $45,335 per household. Almost three quarters of this is driven by two policies: a defence spending path to 3 percent of GDP, and a one-off buyback of Bank of New Zealand.

Economic development
NZ First has not put a figure on the BNZ buyback itself, so we've costed it by applying the NAB profit multiplier (16.19x) to BNZ's reported $1.5 billion net profit for the year to September 2025 — arriving at $24.3 billion — plus a 10% premium, for a total of $26.7 billion.

NZ First's other major economic development commitment is its flagship $100 billion, 30-year infrastructure fund. Spread evenly over 30 years, the four-year share of this comes to $13.3 billion, taking the party's own costings at face value. The party has also pledged a one-off $15 million grant towards restoring Christchurch Cathedral, addressing what it says is a $45 million shortfall, and wants electricity gentailers to separate their retail and generation arms — a change we've costed at $273 million, based on the 2011/12 Telecom/Chorus break-up cost, adjusted for inflation and doubled to reflect the added complexity. The party has also committed $1 billion to a subsurface development survey, taken from its own costings.

NZ First would also lift the Game Development Sector Rebate, doubling the rate to 40 percent and raising the cap per studio from $3 million to $10 million, which we cost at $31 million over four years against the existing baseline. It would also lift funding for the Centre of Digital Excellence by $2 million a year, at $8 million over four years. 

NZ First has costed most of its ten point rail plan and says four are already funded in the PREFU or Budget 2026. We have taken them on their word on the new money, that is $100 million for the Kaimai Tunnel, $5 million for Auckland Rail and Wellington Rail, $130 million for new Te Huia trains, $300 million for level crossings and $50 million for Auckland’s third and fourth main lines. It has not costed Te Huia’s operating costs, so we have used $14.1 million over four years, based on the $29.3 million approved budget for the five-year trial and the 60 percent NZTA share. NZ First puts Christchurch passenger rail at $4 million a year plus “low millions” for commercial finance, which we have taken to mean $18 million. In total we cost the policy at $617.1 million over four years, or $298 per household. Altogether, NZ First’s economic development commitments total $42.0 billion over four years.

Government services and administration

NZ First’s defence policy paper promises to lift defence spending to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2027/28, 2.7 percent in 2029/30 and 3 percent in 2030/31. We have costed the gap between that path and the Treasury’s forecast defence spending, including capital, at $40.55 billion over four years, or $19,571 per household.

NZ First’s law and order package adds a further $866 million. The party has costed none of it. Treating home burglary like aggravated burglary is the largest contributor at $494 million ($238 per household), assuming offenders serve 1.4 times today’s custody time. Raising parole eligibility to 75 percent of the sentence for long-term offenders adds $245 million, assuming an average paroled sentence of four years. A dedicated organised crime agency is costed at $69.5 million, using the Serious Fraud Office’s budget as a proxy, and extra police resources at $38 million, matching ACT’s rural policing costing. Paying victims’ reparation up front and recovering it from offenders adds $20 million, based on ACT’s 2022 plan. Replacing the Serious Fraud Office with a police division is treated as a wash. Life imprisonment for rape of a child and a degrees of murder regime are counted at nil, because any extra custody would likely fall after 2030/31.

Outside defence, the largest item is $6.3 billion to lift the Government’s own KiwiSaver contribution as an employer, which we've calculated by applying a 4.5 percentage point increase (from 3.5% to 8%) to the Government's $35 billion wages and salaries bill. NZ First has also committed $16.6 million to hold a referendum on the Māori seats and $15.4 million for a COVID-19 vaccine inquiry, both costed against comparable past referenda and Royal Commissions of Inquiry.

NZ First have also added increased funding for NZ Coastguard, at $12 million a year ($48 million over four years), taken from NZ First’s figure. NZ First would also regulate combat sports but has not costed it. We have scaled up the cost of the New South Wales Combat Sport Authority (A$2.9 million in 2024/25) and converted to New Zealand dollars, to arrive at $14.2 million over four years. Government services and administration commitments total $47.8 billion.

Social spending
NZ First's Kiwi Kids Grant is costed at $1.6 billion over four years, taking the party's own figures at face value. A related $1,000 KiwiSaver kick-start for every newborn, based on 60,000 births a year, adds a further $240 million. New Zealand First estimate their 'Superannuation for citizens only' policy might save $2.1 billion.

NZ First’s Working for Families announcement would make the temporary $50 a week in-work tax credit boost permanent and lift it to $120 a week. The party estimates the cost at $500 million to $600 million a year. We have used the top of that range, which comes to $2.4 billion over four years, or $1,158 per household.

NZ First's 'Make New Zealand Healthy' policy package was completely uncosted by the party. We estimate this to cost $2.1 billion over four years, or $1,019 per household. A breakdown of these policies can be found below.

Social spending commitments overall total $4.1 billion.

(t) policies where we’ve taken parties’ costings at face value.
(o) uncosted policies that we have had to cost ourselves.
(d) policies where we have disputed parties’ own costings.