Government Services and Administration

• ACT’s government services saving narrows by $16.6 million to $12.67 billion, or $6,116 per household. ACT’s manifesto would finish the legislation for a four-year parliamentary term referendum. We have costed it at $16.6 million.
• All other totals are unchanged this week.

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This page details the election promises related to government services and administration, including:

• defence;
• law, order and justice;
• legislative and regulatory reform;
• other central government administration; and
• regional and local bodies.

Defence

NZ First’s defence policy paper promises a pathway to lift defence spending to 3 percent of GDP by 2031. It gives no dollar figure. We have costed the gap between that path and the Treasury’s forecast defence spending, including capital, at $40.55 billion over four years, or $19,571 per household. No other party has announced a costed defence policy.

Law, order and justice

ACT’s fiscal plan puts $752 million behind law and order, or $363 per household. This includes $413 million for a three-strikes law for burglary, $240 million for a dedicated Overstayers Investigation Unit within Immigration New Zealand, $59 million for a portable national Working with Children Check with ongoing Police checks, and $38 million for 100,000 hours of extra rural police patrols, now with a rural crime unit. ACT also proposes to roll out 20 noise cameras to catch loud vehicles, which its plan books as $2 million of capital.

The National Party has costed 50 new police recruits as part of establishing a dedicated Auckland Transport Police Team at a cost of $28 million over four years.

Labour has also promised to expand redress for survivors of abuse in state care, but its fiscal plan neither mentions nor costs it. Official costings released to the Taxpayers’ Union under the Official Information Act put expanded redress packages at up to $1.025 billion over four years, in addition to the Government's current funding track. We have taken the top of the range, $1.025 billion, or $495 per household.

NZ First would increase funding for NZ Coastguard, which it costs at $12 million a year, or $48 million over four years. We have taken NZ First’s figure. NZ First’s law and order package adds $866 million, none of it costed by the party. Treating home burglary like aggravated burglary is the largest component at $494 million, assuming offenders serve 1.4 times today’s custody time. Raising parole eligibility to 75 percent of the sentence for long-term offenders adds $245 million, assuming an average paroled sentence of four years. A dedicated organised crime agency is costed at $69.5 million, using the Serious Fraud Office’s budget as a proxy, and extra police resources at $38 million, matching ACT’s rural policing costing. Paying victims’ reparation up front adds $20 million, based on ACT’s 2022 plan. Replacing the Serious Fraud Office with a police division is treated as a wash, and life imprisonment for rape of a child and a degrees of murder regime are counted at nil, because any extra custody would likely fall after 2030/31.

The Greens have not announced costed policies in this area.

Legislative and regulatory reform

Labour has pledged to reinstate the pay equity regime. Using Treasury's own projected cost, we put this at $10.97 billion over four years, or $5,295 per household. Labour's plan funds only the $4-an-hour pay rise for care and support workers, about a quarter of that, and says future settlements will be paid for in future Budgets. They have also proposed an independent review of Fire and Emergency New Zealand, costed at $3.9 million. Labour has said it will reintroduce Fair Pay Agreements, but has not costed them. We have used Budget 2021 funding of $35.8 million to set up the Fair Pay Agreement and screen industry bargaining systems, adjusted for inflation, at $45 million over four years.

The Greens’ fiscal plan includes $4.48 billion for pay equity. We have assumed this is the same regime and costed it at Treasury’s $10.97 billion, as for Labour and Opportunity.

The Opportunity Party’s disability position statement also commits to reinstating the pay equity regime, but gives no figure. We have costed it on the same basis as Labour’s, at Treasury’s projected cost of $10.97 billion over four years, or $5,295 per household.

NZ First would hold a referendum on the Māori seats. Based on the $12.9 million cost of the 2020 cannabis and euthanasia referendums, adjusted for inflation, we cost this at $16.6 million over four years. NZ First would also regulate combat sports but has not costed it. We have scaled up the cost of the New South Wales Combat Sport Authority (A$2.9 million in 2024/25), converted to New Zealand dollars, to arrive at $14.2 million over four years.

The Opportunity Party's clean up politics package is costed at $208 million over four years. It also proposes a Parliamentary Citizen Assembly ($8 million) and a Parliamentary Commissioner for Citizen Vote ($1.6 million). Together these come to $217.6 million. The party would also appoint a Future Generations Commissioner. Their policy pages give no figure, so we have costed it on the equivalent Welsh body at $19.5 million over four years.

Labour and the Greens have also proposed lobbying registers and restrictions on political donations. We have costed each at $48 million over four years, using Opportunity's 'clean up politics' costings minus the cost of the anti-corruption body.

ACT’s climate change reforms, taken as a whole, total an estimated $555 million. This includes $490 million from returning net ETS auction receipts to households, and $65 million for restoring higher industrial allocations, which is our own costing as it is not in the plan. We have assumed the saving from scrapping the Zero Carbon Act, which we previously costed at $59.2 million, is part of the environmental savings in ACT’s fiscal plan, so it is counted under Environment, Arts, and Heritage rather than here.

Both ACT and NZ First would end the Waitangi Tribunal. ACT would disestablish it once historical claims are complete, and NZ First would replace it with a commission to finish outstanding claims. In both cases the work continues under another name, so we have assumed no net saving over the forecast period.

National’s MMP referendum would cost $16.6 million, and its fiscal plan provides $1.2 million in 2028/29 for an election policy costings unit. ACT would also legislate for a four-year parliamentary term referendum. We have costed this at $16.6 million, the same as National’s MMP referendum, both based on the $12.9 million cost of the 2020 cannabis and euthanasia referendums adjusted for inflation.

Other central government administration

The Greens’ fiscal plan commits to operating allowances $21.80 billion above the Treasury’s forecasts over four years, or $10,521 per household, including a health uplift of $3 billion a year. It also restores public sector baselines ($3.17 billion) and funds the IRD for tax enforcement ($413 million). We have assumed the baselines line replaces the public service boost from their manifesto which we previously costed at $15.5 billion, which had no costing of its own. The Greens’ AI policy sets five goals but gives no costing. We have costed it the same way as Labour’s Office of AI and online safety regulator, using NetSafe’s $7.3 million a year as a proxy, for $29.2 million over four years. This is our assumption, and we would welcome more detail from the Greens.

Labour would reverse part of National's planned public service savings: half of the first tranche and all of the second. Its fiscal plan costs this at $1.96 billion over four years. The plan also sets aside $968 million for policy not yet announced. We have reduced this to $843 million to cover Fair Pay Agreements and 1,000 extra teacher aides, which Labour has since announced and which overlap the allowance. The plan funds a Parliamentary Budget Office at $10.5 million. We have included their public sector living wage pledge, which Living Wage Aotearoa estimate at $100 million, and a dedicated Office of AI and AI online safety regulator at $29.2 million.

Labour has pledged to progressively lift foreign aid towards 0.7 percent of Gross National Income, but has put no cost or date on it. We have assumed a progressive increase from current levels to 0.7 percent by the fourth year, which costs $5.5 billion over four years, or $2,662 per household. We would welcome Labour sharing its own costing, which so far it has refused to do.

NZ First has promised to increase KiwiSaver contributions to 8%. We have estimated the Crown's costs as employer would cost $6.3 billion over four years. NZ First has also costed a COVID-19 vaccine inquiry at $15.4 million, assuming the cost is an average of the phases 1 and 2 of the Royal Commission.

ACT’s fiscal plan saves $14.18 billion over four years in this category, or $6,845 per household. The plan’s headline is a $9.93 billion non-frontline public service cut. ACT itemises only abolishing the demographic ministries ($187 million a year, $748 million) and cutting foreign aid to 2017 levels excluding Ukraine ($283 million a year, $1.13 billion), with examples of $379 million for welfare administration and $793 million for environmental spending counted on other pages. The remaining $6.88 billion is unitemised. ACT also cuts its future operating allowances from $2.4 billion to $2 billion, which improves the balance by $4.0 billion over four years. The plan also maintains the suspension of NZ Super Fund contributions, a credit of $1.43 billion against the Treasury baseline rather than a cut. ACT’s consolidation of the public service into 19 departments and 18 ministers, and its ban on spiritual practices in the public service, carry no separate cost in our figures. We assume the consolidation has no net cost, and the ban sits inside the non-frontline cut.

The Opportunity Party would spend $40 million boosting the Electoral Commission and $8 million establishing an Independent Policy Costing Unit.

National’s fiscal plan cuts the foreign aid budget by $107.8 million a year, saving $431.2 million over four years. National has also announced a 2 percent efficiency saving at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, separate from the foreign aid cut, which it puts at $45.6 million over four years. It also sets aside $25.2 million for future announcements. Any later costed announcement is likely to sit inside this line. Completing the new police station in Greymouth is already funded under Budget 2026 and carries no additional cost.

Regional and local bodies

ACT’s fiscal plan includes a Local Tourism Dividend, paying councils $1 per commercial guest night, which it costs at $186 million over four years, or $90 per household. No other party has announced costed policies in this category this election.

Note: Te Pāti Māori has announced a $200 million Takatāpui Commission ($97 per household). We have not yet included Te Pāti Māori in the Bribe-O-Meter as most of their policy statements remain uncostable.

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