Here are the headline results for August's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change compared to July 2026 |
|
National |
31.0% |
↑0.5 |
|
Labour |
27.8% |
↓3.7 |
|
Green |
10.1% |
↓0.3 |
|
NZ First |
9.1% | ↓1.7 |
|
ACT |
7.3% |
↑0.4 |
|
Opportunity |
6.1% |
↑2.8 |
|
Te Pāti Māori |
1.5% |
↓1.9 |
|
Other |
7.2% |
↑0.7 |
National is up 0.5 points to 31.0%, while Labour is down 3.7 points to 27.8%. The Greens are down 0.3 points to 10.1%, while New Zealand First is down 1.7 points to 9.1%. ACT is up 0.4 points to 7.3%, while Te Pāti Māori is down 1.9 points to 1.5%.
For the minor parties, Opportunity is on 6.1% (+2.8 points), while Women's Rights are on 1.4% (+1.4 points). New Conservatives are on 0.4% (nc), Vision NZ is on 0.3% (+0.3 points), while Outdoors & Freedom are on 0.1% (-0.7 points).
This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll conducted in July 2026.
|
Party |
Seats |
Change compared to July 2026 |
|
National |
40 |
↑1 |
|
Labour |
36 |
↓5 |
|
Green |
13 | NC |
|
NZ First |
12 |
↓2 |
|
ACT |
9 | NC |
|
Opportunity |
8 |
↑8 |
|
Te Pāti Māori |
2 |
↓2 |
This shows how many seats each party would win in Parliament, based on the decided vote.
National gains 1 seat to 40, while Labour drops 5 seats to 36.
The Greens are unchanged on 13, while New Zealand First drops 2 seat to 12.
ACT is unchanged on 9, while Opportunity gains 8 seats to 8. Te Pāti Māori drops 2 to 2
This calculation assumes there are no overhang seats for National and Te Pāti Māori. An explainer for this assumption can be found here.
The combined projected seats for the Government Parties Bloc (National, New Zealand First, ACT) is 61 (-1 seat).
The combined seats for the Opposition Parties Bloc (Labour, Green, Opportunity, Te Pāti Māori) is 59 (+1).
On these numbers, the current three parties of Government would be able to form a Government.
The Left Bloc (Labour and the Greens) drops 5 seat to 49, while the Right Bloc (National and ACT) gain 1 seat to 49.
The last time either bloc commanded a majority without needing a support partner (NZ First or Te Pāti Māori) to be able to form a Government was December 2024.
Christopher Luxon is up 4.1 points to 23.2%, while Chris Hipkins is up 0.6 points to 19.8%.
Winston Peters is down 1.3 points to 10.5%, Chlöe Swarbrick is up 0.2 points to 4.8%, while David Seymour is down 1.3 points to 3.8%.
National leads on the Economy, Inflation, Taxes, Safety, and Spending. Labour lead on Health, Poverty, Education, Housing, and Environment.
For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are use to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.
Media Summary Statement
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll”.
Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Saturday 01 August to Tuesday 04 August 2026, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 2.1% were undecided on the party vote question.
Notes
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll was conducted from Sat 01 August to Tuesday 04 August 2026. The median response was collected on Mon 03 August 2026..
The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 700 by phone and 300 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 965. There were 21 (2.1%) undecided voters and 13 (1.3%) who refused the vote question.
A random selection of 7,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months.
Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.
For seat projections it is assumed all current parliamentary parties with electorate seats will win at least one electorate seat and be eligible for List MPs. However no overhang seats are assumed or projected.
The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions.
The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area.
Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.