Christopher Luxon drops 1.1 points from last month to 19.7%, while Chris Hipkins drops 2.8 points to 17.8%.

Winston Peters remains on 8.5%, Chlöe Swarbrick gains 3.5 points to 7.6%, and David Seymour is down 1.7 points to 6.0%.

Chris Hipkins' net favourability drops 5 points to -7%, while Christopher Luxon drops 3 points to -13%. Winston Peters drops 4 points to -2%, while David Seymour drops 13 points to -24%.

Cost of Living remains as the most important issue, jumping 4.1 points to 32.6%. The Economy more generally follows on 14.8% (-2.8 points). Health is in third on 9.4% (-2.4 points), followed by Policies on 4.3% (+3.5 points).

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Media Summary Statement

This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll”.

Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Wednesday 03 December and Sunday 07 December 2025, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 6.4% were undecided on the party vote question.

Notes

The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.

The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Wednesday 03 December to Sunday 07 December 2025. The median response was collected on Thursday 04 December 2025.

The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 700 by phone and 300 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 894. There were 64 (6.4%) undecided voters and 42 (4.2%) who refused the vote question.

A random selection of 10,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months.

Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.

The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed.

The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area.

Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.

The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.