Here are the headline results for November's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change compared to October 2025 |
|
Labour |
33.3% |
↑2.1 |
|
National |
30.2% |
↑0.6 |
|
Greens |
9.2% |
↓2.8 |
|
NZ First |
9.1% | ↓1.5 |
|
ACT |
8.6% |
↑2.0 |
|
Māori |
3.3% |
↓1.1 |
|
Other |
6.3% |
↑0.7 |
Labour is up 2.1 points to 33.3%, while National is up 0.6 points to 30.2%. The Greens are down 2.8 points to 9.2%, while NZ First is down 1.5 points to 9.1%. ACT is up 2.0 points to 8.6%, while Te Pāti Māori is down 1.1 points to 3.3%.
For the minor parties, NZ Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.5%, TOP is on 1.2%, New Conservatives are on 1.2%, and Vision NZ is on 0.4%.
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change compared to October 2025 |
|
Labour |
42 |
↑2 |
|
National |
39 |
↑1 |
|
Greens |
12 |
↓3 |
|
NZ First |
12 |
↓1 |
|
ACT |
11 | ↑3 |
|
Māori |
6 |
NC |
This shows how many seats each party would win in Parliament, based on the decided vote.
Labour gains 2 seats to 42, while National gains 1 seat to 39.
The Greens drop 3 seats to 12, while NZ First drops 1 seat to 12.
ACT gains 3 seats to 11, while Te Pāti Māori remains on 6.
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right is up 3 to 62. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is down 1 to 60.
On these numbers, the Centre-Right bloc could form a Government.
Christopher Luxon gains 1.0 point from last month to 20.8%, while Chris Hipkins drops 0.3 points to 20.6%.
Winston Peters is down 1.4 points to 8.5%, David Seymour is up 3.7 points to 7.7%, and Chlöe Swarbrick is down 2.2 points to 4.1%.
Chris Hipkins' net favourability remains negative on -2% (nc), as does Christopher Luxon's on -10% (+4 points). Winston Peters is on +2% (+5 points), and David Seymour is on -11% (+16 points).
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Media Summary Statement
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll”.
Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Sunday 02 and Thursday 06 November 2025, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 5.6% were undecided on the party vote question.
Notes
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 02 and Thursday 06 November 2025. The median response was collected on Wednesday 05 November 2025.
The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 700 by phone and 300 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 912. There were 56 (5.6%) undecided voters and 32 (3.2%) who refused the vote question.
A random selection of 10,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months.
Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.
The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed.
The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area.
Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.