December 23, 2025 Jordan Williams

Taxpayer Update: One Ministry to rule them all 👷🏻‍♂️ | The Fiscal Elephants plain to see 🐘 | Jacinda: The Untold Stories 🎙️

Dear Supporter,

As the country winds down for Christmas, the wheels of Government (waste) have continued to turn. This week, we’re bringing you the latest on the state of the Government’s books, breaking down Minister Bishop’s latest reforms (another mega-department, anyone?), and we’ve got a surprising Taxpayer Hero story uncovered by our research team.

Plus, we wrap up this year’s Taxpayer Talk podcasts with a banger of an episode from Jordan and David Cohen, author of Jacinda: The Untold Stories. Let’s go.

The Fiscal Elephants are real (and they’re not going anywhere) 🎪🐘

Willis / HYEFU

As you may have caught in the media last week, we caused a bit of a stir by pointing out the fiscal elephants in the room — but last week's Half Year Fiscal and Economic Update (HYEFU) confirmed what we already knew: despite the big talk, the numbers show that Government is failing to get the books back into shape.

For the third time in just two years, Minister Nicola Willis has pushed the surplus further down the road and increased how much the Government needs to borrow just to keep the lights on. Even using her made-up OBEGALx measure — which excludes eye-watering ACC and climate liabilities — the books don’t return to black until 2030. On the traditional OBEGAL measure, Treasury forecasts that New Zealand will never get back into operating surplus.

Our policy guru, James, was in the Treasury lock-up and gave these comments to the media:

“When Nicola Willis took up the reins as Finance Minister in December 2023, a surplus was only three and a half years away in 2027. Now it’ll take six and a half years instead, with the surplus slipping further back to 2030.”

“The Finance Minister says we’re on the right track to reach surplus, but we seem to be walking backwards. Every time Treasury opens the books, balancing them seems like more of a pipe-dream.”

“The Budget in May predicted a $214 million surplus by 2029. Within six months, that’s deteriorated by more than $515 per household, projecting a $945 million deficit for the year even using the Minister’s custom OBEGALx measure.”

“There’s only so far we can keep kicking the can down the road. The Robertson-Willis spend-and-borrow approach isn’t working, and Budget 2026 needs to deliver a realistic pathway back to surplus.”

Indeed.

On a more positive note, it's good to see some GDP growth, with Stats NZ releasing the latest quarterly statistics showing a 1.1 percent increase.

This is wonderful news, but we have some catching up to do. GDP per capita remains 2.6 percent smaller than when the last Government left office, and – as Treasury are at pains to point out – growth alone won't be enough to fix the structural deficit faced by the Government.

Put bluntly: Government spending must come down if we are to avoid the sort of shock and pain experienced in the 1990s. Ouch.

One Ministry to Rule Them All? Bishop’s mega-merger gets a cautious tick 👷🏻‍♂️

Minister Bishop’s new ministry

While James was in the lock-up with Nicola Willis for the opening of the Government's books, Christopher Bishop was busy unveiling his new 'mega-ministry' that will roll in the Ministries of Environment, Transport, Housing & Urban Development, plus the local government functions of Internal Affairs. The plan is to have it operational by the middle of 2026.

We're cautiously optimistic. On the one hand New Zealand has far too many departments and ministries but on the other, simply creating another MBIE-style super-ministry doesn’t magically fix overstaffing or productivity problems. In particular, having government agencies reporting to multiple Ministers is a recipe for muddled responsibility and accountability to no one.

But — and it’s a big but — credit where it’s due. Minister Bishop is acknowledging a problem and taking steps to fix it. Many of New Zealand’s biggest policy headaches are deeply intertwined: housing, climate policy, transport, and infrastructure. Having those government policy functions within a single entity makes sense.

Where mergers can go wrong is where the end product is even larger than its parts (I'm looking at you, Auckland Super City!). Mergers alone don't cut bureaucrat numbers or shrink spending. But, given Minister Bishop's public comments about striving for efficiencies as part of this process, this move gets a cautious thumbs-up from your humble Taxpayers' Union. 👍

Our final Taxpayer Hero award of 2025 🏕️🎉

Department of Conservation Taxpayer Heroes

Given the year spent calling out waste, bloat, and bureaucratic nonsense, it’s only fair that we finish by recognising a case where taxpayer money was used well.

The research team has come across some fascinating financial analysis of the Department of Conservation’s “Always Be Naturing” campaign. Costing $2.07 million, the analysis we've been digging into shows that we can expect some $16.4 million in revenue, savings, and value-in-kind support over the next three years.

Funded through the International Visitor Levy, the campaign focuses on increasing conservation volunteering by leveraging private-sector partnerships, donations, and in-kind support — rather than simply reaching back into taxpayers’ pockets.

That’s exactly the kind of approach we want to see more of. Instead of glossy ads with vague outcomes, this campaign has been tied to measurable returns and real-world support, rather than using taxpayer money as a crutch.

So in the spirit of Christmas, we thought we'd highlight some good news to show that smarter spending beats bigger budgets with DOC earning our final Taxpayer Hero award of 2025. 🏅

You can read the full response to our Official Information Act request here.

The Cap Rates NOW fight continues in Auckland 🧢🏠

Auckland Rates Cap

Wayne Brown was re-elected promising to cut waste and keep rates low. Just two months later, Aucklanders are facing the largest ever rates increase in the Super City’s history.

Ignore the Council spin about “average properties”. The reality is simple: Auckland Council plans to take an extra $294 million from ratepayers next year.

While much of the increase is being blamed on the City Rail Link, Council officers have quietly admitted that a significant portion has nothing to do with CRL — and still refuse to say how much. Auckland Council isn't exactly known for being forthcoming, but even for them this is a shocking lack of transparency.

And while we’re on the subject – maybe this is why Minister for Local Government, Simon Watts, needs to hear the final word of our Cap Rates campaign slogan: NOW. Auckland might be first out of the gate, but we can guarantee other councils will be planning to use the same trick: hike rates now while they still can.

Which brings us to some other news...

We’re pleased to welcome back Josh Van Veen as the our Local Government Campaigns Manager.

Josh previously worked for the Taxpayers' Union before spending nearly three years inside the Mayor of Auckland’s office, including a stint as Wayne Brown's Deputy Chief of Staff. That's given him a rare insider’s view of how Auckland Council decisions are really made – and a renewed vigour to fight on the side of ratepayers.

Josh hasn’t eased back in. Within days, he was publicly challenging Wayne Brown over the scale of the rates grab and the lack of clarity around what ratepayers are actually paying for. You can listen to his RNZ interview here.

With record high rates bills being planned all across the country, Josh is certainly going to be busy!

Taxpayer Talk: David Cohen on his new book: Jacinda: The Untold Story 🎙️

Last week I sat down with my friend David Cohen for a no-holds-barred chat about his new book, Jacinda: The Untold Stories.

Billed as a refreshingly un-mushy take on Jacinda Ardern’s premiership, David drew on hundreds of interviews to cut through the PR gloss and media fawning. His verdict? Ardern was a talented brand manager, powered by what he calls a “missionary zeal” — but that communications-first style came at a cost, with big policies like KiwiBuild never properly stress-tested.

As someone who got to know Ardern prior to her becoming Prime Minister, I think David has accurately captured what drove Ardern, her talents, and her flaws. A great gift for the person in your life who loves (or loathes) New Zealand's 40th Prime Minister.

You can listen to the podcast here, or wherever you get good podcasts.

Merry Christmas from all of us at the Taxpayers’ Union 🎄

Merry Christmas from the Taxpayers’ Union

2025 has been huuuuge for the Taxpayers’ Union – from our campaign victories in the Budget (accelerated depreciation, anyone?) to convincing the Government to adopt Rates Capping – everything accomplished was only possible thanks to the generous support of the tens of thousands who have chipped in with a donation.

The key priority next year is stopping a costly Labour/Te Pāti Māori/Green coalition of tax and spend chaos. Will you consider chipping-in to our 2026 fighting fund with an end of year donation?

So from the whole team, wishing you and your family a very Merry Christmas and a happy New Year. 🍾

Thank you for standing with us.

Jordan Williams
Executive Director
New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union

PS. The Taxpayers’ Union has had some amazing successes this year - from overturning the Ute Tax 2.0 to securing rates caps for all, we’re making sure that your money stays where it belongs - in your pockets. 2026 is going to be a huge year as we fight off the threat of Labour/Te Pāti Māori/Greens coalition, and their radical plans to spend hard and tax even harder. We can't do it alone.

In the Media:

RNZ 'Public good over corporate greed': Greens challenge Willis to debate them instead

Gisborne Herald Labour steadies, eyes Māori seats

NZ Herald The three most improved MPs of 2025; zingers from Parliament’s Christmas roast - Audrey Young

RNZ The Whip for 17 December 2025

Newstalk ZB Heather Du Plessis-Allan Drive: Full Show Podcast, 17 December 2025

The Press Can Christopher Luxon credibly lead a Government from 30%?

RNZ Oral Questions for Wednesday 17 December 2025

One News Breakfast Finance Minister's overview of 2025

Newstalk ZB Liam Dann: NZ Herald Business Editor on the state of the Government's books

Newstalk ZB Kerre Woodham: The Finance Minister is charting a tough course

Waatea News Professor Matt Roskruge | Associate Dean Māori in the School of Economics and Finance