Here are the headline results of the sixteenth Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change from last month |
|
National |
34.4% |
↓2.8 |
|
Labour |
34.4% |
↑2.7 |
|
ACT |
11.7% |
↑0.9 |
|
Green |
7.8% |
↓2.8 |
|
NZ First |
2.9% |
↑0.1 |
|
Māori |
2.1% |
↑0.5 |
|
Other |
6.7% |
↑1.4 |
The two largest parties are tied on 34.4% with Labour up 2.7 points on last month while National is down 2.8 points. ACT is up 0.9 points to 11.7% while the Greens are down 2.8 points to 7.8%.
The smaller parties were NZ First on 2.9%, Maori Party on 2.1%, TOP on 2.0%, NZ Outdoors & Freedom on 1.0%, Democracy NZ on 0.9%, New Conservative on 0.8%, and Vision NZ on 0.2%.
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament, assuming all electorate seats are held:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change from last month |
|
National |
46 |
↓3 |
|
Labour |
46 |
↑5 |
|
ACT |
15 |
↑1 |
|
Green |
10 |
↓4 |
|
Māori |
3 |
↑1 |
Both Labour and National are on 46 seats with the former up 5 seats on last month and the latter down 3. ACT is up 1 seat to 15 while the Greens are down 4 to 10. The Māori Party is up 1 seat to 3.
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right is down 2 from last month to 61 but still just enough to form a government. The combined total for the Centre-Left is up 1 to 56 seats.
New Prime Minister, Chris Hipkins, scores a net favourability rating of +27%, which is 28 points higher than Jacinda Ardern’s final score as PM. Not shown on the graph, new Deputy Prime Minister debuts with a net favourability rating -12%.
Christopher Luxon’s net favourability has decreased 4 points from -1% to -5% while ACT leader David Seymour dips 7 points from -4% to -11%.
For preferred Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern was 34% last month while Chris Hipkins debuts at 30%. Luxon increases by 1 point to 26%.
Jacinda Ardern still has 9% while David Semyour is on 8%, Winston Peters on 3.5%, Chlöe Swarbrick on 1.9% James Shaw on 1.3%, Matt King on 1.3%, Leighton Baker on 1.0% and Nicola Willis on 0.7%.
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The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar is a member of the Board of the Taxpayers' Union and also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Thursday 2 to Thursday 9 February 2023. The median response was collected on Tuesday 7 February 2023. The sample size was 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters: 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 15,000 nationwide phone numbers. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.