Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: June 2023
Here are the headline results for Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change from last month |
|
National |
35.7% |
↑0.1 |
|
Labour |
32.9% |
↓0.9 |
|
ACT |
12.7% |
nc |
|
Green |
9.7% |
↑2.7 |
|
Māori |
3.5% |
↓0.2 |
|
NZ First |
1.6% |
↓1.0 |
|
Other |
3.9% |
↓0.6 |
National is unchanged from last month on 36% while Labour drops 1 point to 33%. ACT is also unchanged on 13% while the Greens are up 3 points to 10%.
The smaller parties are the Māori Party 3.5% (-0.2 points), NZ First on 1.6% (-1 point), New Conservatives on 1.3% (-0.3 points), Democracy NZ on 0.9% (+0.6 points), and TOP on 0.8% (-0.9 points).
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament, assuming all electorate seats are held:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change from last month |
|
National |
46 |
nc |
|
Labour |
42 |
↓2 |
|
ACT |
16 |
nc |
|
Green |
12 |
↑3 |
|
Māori |
4 |
↓1 |
National is unchanged on last month on 46 seats while Labour is down 2 seats to 42. ACT remains constant on 16 seats while the Greens pick up 3 seats to a total of 12. The Māori Party is down 1 seat on last month to 4.
The combined projected seats for the Centre Right of 62 seats is unchanged on last month and would allow them to form a government.
*The Māori Party is now included in the Centre-Left bloc given National’s decision to rule out forming a government with them. The combined seats for the Centre-Left bloc of 58 is therefore also unchanged on last month.
44% (nc) of voters have a favourable view of Chris Hipkins while 25% (+3 points) have an unfavourable view for a net favourability of +19% (-3 points).
33% (+3 points) of voters have a favourable view of Christopher Luxon while 35% (-2 points) have an unfavourable view for a net favourability of -2% (+5 points).
David Seymour has a net favourability of -4% (+7 points) while Māori Party co-leaders, Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, have net favourability ratings of -26% and -27%, respectively.
Chris Hipkins’s net favourability among undecided voters has dropped by 36 points to -6% and is now similar to Christopher Luxon’s score of -7%. David Seymour has a positive net favourability among undecided voters of +5%.
The cost of living remains the most important issue for voters on 33% (up 5 points) followed by the economy more generally on 9% (-6 points points). The environment is on 8% (+3 points), health more generally is on 7% (-1 point), poverty is on 6% (+4 points), and law and order is on 5% (+2 points). Policies, housing, taxes and education are all on 3% each while COVID-19 is on 0%.
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The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar is a member of the Board of the Taxpayers' Union and also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Wednesday 31 May to Tuesday 6 June 2023. The median response was collected on Sunday 4 June 2023. The sample size was 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters: 700 by phone and 300 by online panel. The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 15,000 nationwide phone numbers. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.