Taxpayers' Union Curia Poll: October 2022

Exclusive to members and supporters, we can reveal the results of the twelfth Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll.

The polling period was Sunday 2 - Tuesday 11 October 2022. 

Here are the headline results:

National increases its support by a further 2 points from September to 39% in October while Labour is also up 1 point to 34%. ACT drops 2 to 10% and Greens also down 1 to 9%. 

The smaller parties are TOP on 3.4%, Māori Party at 2.1%, NZ First at 2.0% and New Conservatives at 1.0%

Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament, assuming all electorate seats are held:

The Centre-Right could still govern alone on 63 seats with no change from last month. The Centre-Left drops one seat from 55 to 54 while the Māori Party picks up an extra seat to take them to 3.

Jacinda Ardern drops 4 points to 33% while Christopher Luxon also drops 3 points to 23%. 

David Seymour is up 0.7 to 7.3% but close on his heels is Chloe Swarbrick who has hit 4.8% (+1.6) Preferred PM despite not even being a party leader. She is polling higher than Winston Peters who is on 3.6%. 

More respondents say the country is headed in the wrong direction than the right direction. 

The net country direction drops to another record low of -28%. Only 29% (-3) of New Zealanders think the country is heading in the right direction and 56% (+2) say the wrong direction. This is the first time the right direction share has been lower than 30%.

For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are used to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.

The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar is a member of the Board of the Taxpayers' Union and also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.

The Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 2 October to Tuesday 11 October 2022. The sample size was 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 20,000 nationwide phone numbers. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll”.