Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: March 2024
Here are the headline results for March's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change compared to Feb 2023 |
|
National |
37.4% |
↓2.2 |
|
Labour |
25.3% |
↓2.6 |
|
Green |
11.3% |
↑2.3 |
|
ACT |
10.0% |
↓3.7 |
|
NZ First |
7.4% |
↑2.4 |
|
Māori |
2.5% |
↑0.2 |
For the decided party vote, National is down 2.2 points on last month's poll to 37.4% while Labour also drops to 25.3% (-2.6 points) – this is Labour's lowest score since our poll began in January 2021. The Greens get a 2.3 point boost taking them to 11.3% – also putting them ahead of ACT who dropped back down to 10.0% (-3.7%).
The smaller parties are NZ First on 7.4% (+2.4 points) and Te Pāti Māori on 2.5% (+0.2% points).
For the minor parties, TOP is on 2.1%, Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.3%, Vision NZ is on 0.8%, Democracy NZ on 0.4% with the rest combined making up the remaining 1.5%.
3.7% of voters were undecided after probing.
This month's results are compared to February's Taxpayers' Union Curia Poll.
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change compared to Feb 2023 |
|
National |
48 |
↓1 |
|
Labour |
32 |
↓2 |
|
Green |
15 |
↑4 |
|
ACT |
13 |
↓4 |
|
NZ First |
9 | ↑3 |
|
Māori |
6 |
nc |
National is down 1 seat on last month to 48 while Labour is down two seats to 32. The Greens overtake ACT with 15 seats (up four) to the latter's 13 (down four). NZ First jump up three seats to 9 while Te Pāti Māori is unchanged on 6 seats.
This calculation assumes that all electorate seats are held. A Parliament on these figures would have an overhang of 3 seats and a total of 123 seats.
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 70 seats is down 2 from last month while the Centre-Left is up 2 seats to 53.
On these numbers, National and ACT would require the support of NZ First to form a government due to the overhang seats increasing the size of Parliament.
39% of voters (-5 points) have a favourable view of Christopher Luxon while 44% (+11 points) have an unfavourable view for a net favourability of -5% (down 16 points on last month).
40% (no change) of voters have a favourable view of Chris Hipkins while 38% (+3) have an unfavourable view for a net favourability of +2%.
David Seymour has a net favourability of -8% while Winston Peters has a score of -12%.
This month we also asked respondents about their views on two National cabinet ministers. Erica Stanford had a net favourability of +5% and Shane Reti had a score of -1%.
43% (-1 point) of respondents say the country is heading in the right direction compared with 46% (+5 points) who say the country is heading in the wrong direction for a net country direction of -3% (-6 points).
17.7% (+1.3 points) of respondents strongly approved of the Government's job so far while 21.8% (-1.5 points) somewhat approved. 21.3% (+3 points) somewhat disapproved and 22.1% (+5.2 points) strongly disapproved. 15.7% (-5.3 points) were neutral while 1.3% (-2.8 points) were unsure.
This gives the Government a net approval rating of -3.9% (-8.4 points).
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The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 03 to Tuesday 05 March 2024. The median response was collected on Monday 04 March 2024. The sample size was 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters: 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. 974 respondents were decided on the party vote. The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 15,000 nationwide phone numbers plus a random selection from an online panel (that complies with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.