Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: February 2024
Here are the headline results for February's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change compared to November 2023 |
|
National |
39.6% |
↑2.6 |
|
Labour |
27.9% |
↓0.4 |
|
ACT |
13.7% |
↑5.6 |
|
Green |
9.0% |
↓4.8 |
|
NZ First |
5.0% |
↓1.0 |
|
Māori |
2.3% |
↓1.1 |
|
Other |
2.5% |
↓0.9 |
National is up 2.6 points on our last poll in November 2023 to 39.6% while Labour drops marginally to 27.9% (-0.4 points). ACT is up significantly to 13.7% (+5.6%) while the Greens are down substantially to 9.0% (-4.8 points).
The smaller parties are NZ First on 5.0% (-1.0 points), Te Pāti Māori on 2.3% (-1.1% points), and others combined were on 2.5%.
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change compared to November 2023 |
|
National |
49 |
↑3 |
|
Labour |
34 |
↓1 |
|
ACT |
17 |
↑7 |
|
Green |
11 |
↓6 |
|
NZ First |
6 |
↓2 |
|
Māori |
6 |
nc |
National is up 3 seats on November 2023 to 49 while Labour is unchanged on 35 seats. ACT has jumped up 7 seats to 17 while the Greens are down 6 seats to 11. NZ First is down 2 seats to 6 while Te Pāti Māori is unchanged also on 6 seats.
This calculation assumes that all electorate seats are held. A Parliament on these figures would have an overhang of 3 seats and a total of 123 seats.
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 72 seats is up 8 from November 2023 while the Centre-Left is down 7 seats. This is the biggest gap between blocs since Sep 2021 when the Centre-Left led by 27 seats.
On these numbers, National and ACT could form a majority government on their own without the support of NZ First.
Christopher Luxon drops 4 points on November 2023 to 29% in the preferred Prime Minister stakes. Chris Hipkins is up 1 point to 19%.
David Seymour increases 6 points to 10% while Winston Peters is up 1 point on 6%. Chlöe Swarbrick is also on 6% unchanged from November 2023.
Chris Bishop is on 1.2%, Nicola Willis on 0.8%, Rawairi Waititi on 0.9%, James Shaw on 0.7%, and Leighton Baker on 0.2%.
9% of respondents still indicated that Jacinda Ardern was their preferred Prime Minister.
44% of voters have a favourable view of Christopher Luxon while 33% have an unfavourable view for a net favourability of +11% (up 2 points on November 2023).
40% of voters have a favourable view of Chris Hipkins while 35% have an unfavourable view for a net favourability of +4% (-12 points).
David Seymour has a net favourability of -8% (+6 points) while Winston Peters has a score of -22% (+10 points).
This month we also asked respondents about their views on two Green MPs. Chlöe Swarbirck had a net favourability of -10% while Julie Anne Genter had a score of -21%.
This month, we have introduced a new government approval rating where voters are asked to rate how good a job the current government is doing.
16.4% of respondents strongly approved and 23.3% somewhat approved while 18.3% somewhat disapproved and 16.9% strongly disapproved. 21.0% were neutral while 4.1% were unsure.
This gives the Government a net approval rating of +4.5%.
For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are used to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Thursday 01 to Wednesday 07 February 2024. The median response was collected on Sunday 04 February 2024. The sample size was 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters: 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. 919 respondents were decided on the party vote. The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 15,000 nationwide phone numbers plus a random selection from an online panel (that complies with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.