NEW POLL: Statistical tie between National and ACT in race for Tāmaki

A new Taxpayers Union – Curia poll in the Tāmaki electorate shows ACT’s Brooke van Velden mounting a strong challenge to incumbent National MP, Simon O’Connor.

The two major candidates for the seat are locked in a statistical tie with 35% of respondents indicating they will vote for Simon O’Conner and 33% opting for Brooke van Velden. 12% said they would vote for Labour’s Fesaitu Solomone while others pledged their support for parties without local electorate candidates: 4% for the Greens, 2% for Te Pāti Māori, and 1% for NZ First. 1% refused to answer while 13% were unsure – much lower than in other electorates polled. 

Removing undecideds and refusals, gives a decided vote of 40% for Simon O’Connor – down 13 points on the last election – and 38% for Brooke van Velden – up 33 points on 2020. Labour is on 14%, the Greens on 4%, Te Pāti Māori on 2%, and NZ First on 1%. 

The full results – including candidate name recognition, MP approval rating, and most important local issues – are available here.

New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union Head of Campaigns, Callum Purves, said: 

 “Tāmaki has been a National stronghold for decades since former Prime Minister Robert Muldoon won the seat back at the 1960 general election, but it can no longer be considered a safe blue seat. Simon O’Connor outpolled the National party vote by 15 points in 2020, but today’s poll suggests there has been a massive turnaround. 

“O’Connor and Brooke van Velden are in a statistical tie for the electorate with a massive increase in support for the ACT Party. With the difference between the two top candidates being within the margin of error for this poll, either candidate could be ahead in this contest that is likely to go right down to the wire.”