NEW POLL: Hung Parliament as National Fall Behind Labour

Facing a sluggish economy, the Government Coalition sees another bad poll result, as they fall to neck-and-neck with the Centre-Left bloc in this month's Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll.

The poll, conducted between 03 and 05 August, shows Labour overtake National as the largest party, gaining 2.0 points to 33.6 percent. National drops 2.1 points to 31.8 percent.

The Greens gain 0.4 points to 9.8 percent, while ACT drops 0.5 points to 8.6 percent. New Zealand First drops 2.0 points to 7.8 percent, while Te Pāti Māori drops 0.3 points to 3.2 percent.

Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/augpoll2025_250808

For the minor parties, TOP is on 2.6 percent (+1.4 points), Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.1 percent (+1.0 points) and Vision NZ is on 0.4 percent (+0.4 points).

This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll conducted in June 2025, available at www.taxpayers.org.nz/pollnztu_20250710

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 61 is down 4 seats from last month. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is up 4 seats to 61. On these numbers, neither the Centre-Left nor the Centre-Right bloc would have enough seats to form a Government, and there would be a hung Parliament.

Labour gains 4 seats to 43, while National drops 2 to 40. The Greens remain on 12, and ACT remain on 11. New Zealand First is down 2 to 10, while Te Pāti Māori remain unchanged on 6.

Cost of Living is voters' top issue at 24.4 percent (+2.8 points), closely followed by the Economy more generally at 20.7 percent (+1.6 points). Combined, these two issues are the most important for 45.1 percent of voters. Health is the next largest issue on 10.0 percent, followed by Employment on 6.0 percent.

Commenting on the results, Taxpayers’ Union Spokesman James Ross said:

"Why have the Government taken a beating in the polls? It's the economy, stupid. This month's results show it's not just Treasury giving the Government a dressing-down over their fiscal inaction."

"As part of this month's poll, the Taxpayers' Union also commissioned Curia to ask voters about the performance of the Government across a list of economic management issues. The results will be released later this week, and appear to indicate why the Government is losing so much support to the opposition parties."

"Cost of living and lack of growth are biting families in the back-pocket. Until the Government starts making the tough calls, they'll be clinging on to power by their fingertips."