Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: October 2024
Here are the headline results for October's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
Party |
Support |
Change compared to September 2024 |
National |
34.9% |
↓4.1 |
Labour |
30.3% |
↑3.6 |
Green |
10.4% |
↓0.6 |
ACT |
9.7% |
↑0.9 |
NZ First |
7.6% |
↑0.8 |
Māori |
3.0% |
↓2.0 |
Other |
4.1% |
↑0.6 |
National is down 4.1 points to 34.9% from September while Labour is up 3.6 points to 30.3%. The Greens are down 0.6 points to 10.4%, while ACT are up to 9.7% (+0.9 points). New Zealand First is up 0.8 points to 7.6% while Te Pāti Māori is down 2.0 points to 3.0%.
For the minor parties, TOP is on 2.5% (+1.4 points), no other parties polled above 1.0%.
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
Party |
Seats |
Change compared to July 2024 |
National |
44 |
↓4 |
Labour |
38 |
↑5 |
Green |
13 |
↓1 |
ACT |
12 |
↑1 |
NZ First |
9 |
↑1 |
Māori |
6 |
nc |
This shows how many seats each party would win in Parliament, based on the decided vote. National is down four seats on last month to 44 while Labour is up five seats to 38. The Greens are down one to 13 while ACT is up one on last month to 12 seats. New Zealand First is up one to nine while Te Pāti Māori is unchanged on six.
This calculation assumes that all electorate seats are held.
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 65 is down two seats from last month. On these numbers, National and ACT would require the support of NZ First to form a government. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is up four to 57.
Christopher Luxon is down 5.0 points from last month to 27.7% while Chris Hipkins is up 4.3 points to 16.9%.
Chlöe Swarbrick is in third place at 9.9% (+2.7 points) followed by Winston Peters (+1.7 points) at 8.4%.
4.0% of respondents chose Jacinda Ardern as the preferred PM. David Seymour is at 7.4% (+2.2 points), Rawiri Waititi is at 1.6% and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer is at 1.0%.
36.5% of respondents named the Cost of Living as one of their top three issues, followed by Health at 35.5%, the Economy more generally on 33.7%, Law and Order on 16.5%, Poverty on 16.3%, and Housing on 12.1%.
For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are used to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.
Media Summary Statement
Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Thursday 03 and Monday 07 October September 2024, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 3.4% were undecided on the party vote question.
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Thursday 03 and Monday 07 October 2024. The median response was collected on Sunday 06 October 2024.
The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 906. There were 34 (3.4%) undecided voters and 23 (2.3%) who refused the vote question.
A random selection of 15,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months. Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.
The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.