Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: November 2023
Here are the headline results for November's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change compared to election result |
|
National |
37.0% |
↓1.1 |
|
Labour |
28.3% |
↑1.4 |
|
ACT |
8.1% |
↓0.5 |
|
Green |
13.8% |
↑2.2 |
|
NZ First |
6.0% |
↓0.1 |
|
Māori |
3.4% |
↑0.3 |
|
Other |
3.7% |
↓1.8 |
National is down 1 point to 37% and Labour is up 1 point to 28% when compared with the election result. ACT is down 1 point to 8%, the Greens are up 2 points to 14% and NZ First remains unchanged on 6%.
The smaller parties are the Māori Party on 3.4% (+0.3 points since the election), TOP on 2.9% (+0.7 points), New Conservatives on 0.7% (+0.5 points) and Vision NZ on 0.3% (+0.3 points).
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change compared to election result |
|
National |
46 |
↓2 |
|
Labour |
35 |
↑1 |
|
Green |
17 |
↑2 |
|
ACT |
10 |
↓1 |
|
NZ First |
8 |
nc |
|
Māori |
6 |
nc |
National is down 2 seats on the election result to 46 seats and Labour gain 1 seat to 35. ACT is down 1 to 10 seats while the Greens are up 2 to 17. New Zealand First and the Māori Party remain steady on 8 and 6 seats respectively.
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right (now including NZ First) of 64 seats is down 3 from the election result while the the combined seats for the Centre-Left bloc of 58 is up 3.
We now have a larger Parliament due to the two overhang seats created from the Māori electorates, but this result would still allow National/ACT/NZ First to form a government.
Note: From June 2023, the Māori Party has been included in the Centre-Left bloc given National’s decision to rule out forming a government with them. New Zealand First is now included in the Centre-Right Bloc.
Christopher Luxon has risen in this month’s preferred Prime Minister poll to 33% (+4 points). Chris Hipkins has dropped substantially to 18% (-9 points). David Seymour remains unchanged at 4% while 5.6% of people would still prefer Jacinda Ardern.
Chloë Swarbrick is up 0.2 points to 6.3%, Winston Peters is up 0.7 points to 5.0%, Nicola Willis drops 1.2 points to 1.3%, James Shaw is up 0.2 points to 1.4%, and Matt King has dropped 0.3 points to 0.4%. Marama Davidson has dropped 0.8 points to 0.4% while Chris Bishop has increased 0.5 points to 0.6%.
The net country direction is up 10 points to -20%. 29% (+1 point) of New Zealanders think the country is heading in the right direction while 49% (-10 points) say the wrong direction.
For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are used to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Wednesday 01 November to Monday 06 November 2023. The median response was collected on Thursday 02 November 2023. The sample size was 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters: 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. 903 respondents were decided on the party vote.The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 15,000 nationwide phone numbers plus a random selection from an online panel (that complies with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.
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