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Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: March 2023

Here are the headline results of the seventeenth Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:




Change from last month













NZ First









Labour takes the lead for the first time in our poll since March 2022 as it rises 1.1 points on last month to 35.5% while National is up 0.4 points to 34.8%. ACT drops back 2.4 points to 9.3% and the Greens are down 2.1 points to 5.7%.

The smaller parties were NZ First on 4.2% (+1.3 points), New Conservatives on 2.5% (+1.7 points), TOP on 1.7% (-0.3 points), Māori Party 1.4% (-0.7 points), Vision NZ 0.8% (+0.6 points) and Democracy NZ 0.5% (-0.4 points).

Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament, assuming all electorate seats are held:




Change from last month
















Labour is up 3 seats on last month to 49 while National is up 2 seats to 48. ACT is down 2 seats to 13 and the Greens are also down 2 seats to 8. The Māori Party is down 1 seat to 2.

Projected seats over time

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right is unchanged from last month at 61, which means National and ACT still have just enough seats to form a government. The combined total for the Centre-Left is up 1 to 57 seats. 

Favourability over time

Chris Hipkins's net favourability rating continues to soar and now sits at +33% up 6 points from last month (54% favourable versus 21% unfavourable). The prime minister also now has a positive net favourability rating with National voters of +13% up 17 points from -4% last month.
Christopher Luxon’s net favourability has increased by 3 points from -5% to -2% (35% favourable versus 37% unfavourable). ACT leader, David Seymour, sees a 12-point bounce to +1% (35.4% favourable versus 34.6% unfavourable). 

Labour lead over National over time

Labour has continued to close the gap with National on which party is deemed best at a range of different policy areas. While National remains 14 points ahead of Labour as the best economic manager, its lead is down 6 points on last month. National also has a 12-point lead (down 4 points) on fighting inflation and a 9-point lead (down 3 points) on law and order.

This month, Labour retakes the lead on jobs with a 9-point lead over National up 11 points on last month and improves its leads on leadership of 11 points (up 4 points) and health of 16 points (up 4 points).

For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are used to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.

The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar is a member of the Board of the Taxpayers' Union and also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.

The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Thursday 2 to Tuesday March 2023. The median response was collected on Monday 6 February 2023. The sample size was 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters: 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 15,000 nationwide phone numbers. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.

This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.

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