Taxpayer Update: NZ's Debt Crisis 🛑⏰ | Labour's GST Hole Crisis 🥬🕳️ | Creative NZ's Crisis 😢✈️
It's foot to the floor here at the Taxpayers' Union – even Porky the Waste-hater student interns are working overtime this weekend.
As well as the the campaigns detailed below, we're still business-as-usual exposing government waste. This week, we take a look at the world through the eyes of those poor bureaucrats at Creative NZ. The staff have received a formal health and safety apology because [I'm not making this up] staff suffered flight delays due to the flooding in Auckland back in January! The formal apology related to some souls not being given money to get into the Koru lounge which, apparently, resulted in 'emotional trauma'. (yes, seriously – details below).
But first, we tackle the big numbers.
New Zealand's Debt Crisis: We need to 'Stop the Clock!' 🛑⏰
Thanks to those who came along to Parliament and bought a sausage as part of our fundraiser to help Grant Robertson pay back the debt!
Great to see 1News pick up on the concept in the 6pm bulletin, and Newshub run my interview with Christopher Luxon earlier in the day (skip forward in the Newshub video here or watch our captioned version over on our Facebook page here).
David Seymour also popped down to grab a sausage and helped reset the clock after the disturbingly high new debt figures were released in Treasury's Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update.
Sadly, we didn't hit our target of selling 80 billion sausages @ $2 each to pay back the debt. We worked it out though, that it's enough snags end to end to get to the moon and back 14 times!
In the 12 days since launching the Debt Clock, New Zealand’s Government Debt has grown by more than $865 million. And the online version of the Debt Clock continues to spin. Right now, government debt sits at more than $161 billion – that's basically a $81,633 (and growing) credit card bill for every NZ household.
In the coming weeks we'll be putting in the miles to make sure the Debt Clock gets in front of as many eyes as possible. We need to ensure the politicians are forced to grapple with the cost of government crisis.
The Debt Clock will be outside TVNZ for tomorrow morning's Q&A debate, at our Auckland Central electorate debate on Tuesday, and The Press Leader's Debate in Christchurch on October 3.
Grant Robertson's deficit now the second largest in the world 🧨
Some government apologists try to pretend these debt numbers aren't that bad. But despite COVID having passed, Grant Robertson's $72 million per day borrowing is, according to the International Monetary Fund, the second highest cyclically-adjusted fiscal deficit in the OECD.
Hear that, kids? Tick tock, tick tock...
Labour's GST claims are cabbage: If Hipkins' claims about us eating more fruit and vege are right, there’s a $411m hole in Labour's GST costings 🕳️🥬
As the NZ Herald reported yesterday, a certain "Low Tax Lobby Group" (their words) has found a fiscal hole in Labour's GST-free fruit & vege policy costings
Despite Labour's policy document stating that taking GST off fresh fruit and vegetables “will have the additional benefit of encouraging Kiwis to purchase more healthy fruit and vegetables in their weekly shop”, the Party's costings assume not one more fresh or frozen carrot or blueberry is consumed!
You will recall Labour has been jumping up and down about National apparently not factoring in enough demand change in relation to its budgeted revenue from Nicola Willis's proposed foreign buyer's tax. But that is more of a debate of whether it was factored in enough – here Labour has ignored dynamic effects entirely.
Labour's GST policy has already been roundly rejected by economists and pundits across the political spectrum. But now we know that GST-free cabbages can't count either.
Using economic modelling based on what happens when food is subsidised, we can estimate that Labour has a budget hole of around $411 million if the GST reduction is passed on in full (as suggested by Labour’s election advertisements).
But if only 30 per cent of the GST reduction is passed onto consumers (as the Tax Working Group’s expert advice suggests – advice uncovered by your humble Taxpayers' Union last week), there is still a $123 million gap in Labour’s costings.
Labour is effectively saying its plan to destroy the best GST system in the world will not result in Kiwis eating one more carrot. Either Labour’s got a big hole in its costings, or the Party know its key sales pitch (that it's good for shoppers) is fresh baloney.
We say that dodgy costings like these show yet again why an independent costings unit to audit the spending promises that political parties put forward during elections is a no brainer. On that subject, I joined Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive recently to argue for just this type of office.
Tackling co-governance in fiery post-1News Leaders' Debate panel 🗣️🔥
Tuesday brought with it the first head-to-head Hipkins v Luxon leaders' debate. Neither landed a knock-out blow or dropped a major clanger. The real fiery exchange came in our post-debate analysis show where Simon Wilson, Fran O'Sullivan, and I locked horns on co-governance.
Host of The Working Group podcast Martyn Bradbury moderated the, errr, spirited discussion with Fran O'Sullivan and Simon Wilson from the NZ Herald, Dr Bryce Edwards of Victoria University, Stuff columnist (and big Taxpayers' Union supporter) Damien Grant, and yours truly.
Unlike some mainstream media outlets (we are looking at you TVNZ!), at the Taxpayers' Union, we believe in giving a platform to people with a diverse range of views if we are going to have a worthwhile debate – even to people we strongly disagree with. The fiery discussion on co-governance is particularly worth a watch.
On Tuesday, we host our next electorate debate in the Auckland Central. We'll also be releasing our exclusive Taxpayers' Union – Curia Auckland Central poll. Will Chlöe Swarbrick be on track to hold the seat?
Hipkins wants to hike fuel taxes 🤯⛽️
Great to see the Stop Higher Fuel Taxes campaign is getting cut through. Thank you for those who have bought "Wants to hike fuel taxes" signs – please keep those photos coming! We still have a few dozen in the office, so to get yours head over to our store (you only need to pay the postage).
Cry Me a River: Stranded Creative NZ staff "betrayed" by lack of airline lounge access 😢✈️
In one of those stories that makes you double check the date is not 1st April, we noticed a Stuff story this week that Creative NZ had commissioned an independent reviewer to investigate apparent mistreatment of staff who were stranded at Auckland Airport during the flooding back in January.
Here's my email to Creative NZ's media team which speaks for itself (click here for larger version):
Initially they would not reply, but after following up yesterday we got the answer: it was a staff hui.
Grant's mismanagement sees ACT pull back tax relief promise 🟡💸
While no one wants to see tax relief more than the Taxpayers' Union, it is important to recognise that spending needs to come down dramatically first. The only true tax cut is a spending cut – the rest is just timing. Any tax relief or spending promises that don't come with matching spending reductions, simply means more borrowing today (and more taxes tomorrow).
On Thursday, the ACT Party released its amended Alternative Budget factoring in the updated Government's books. The party has watered down its previous tax reform package. Kiwis will still be at least a few hundred bucks a year better off under this new plan, but it keeps (at least in the short term) the 33% tax rate.
Grant Robertson's economic mismanagement got us into this mess with public spending increasing by 68 percent in just six years, resulting in the second largest budget deficits in the developed world (see above). ACT says that damage can't be fixed overnight and wants to prioritise getting the books back in order.
The 'alternative budget' has some other measures that we quite like the look of, including:
- Introducing a carbon dividend from Emissions Trading Scheme revenue
- Abolishing the bright-line test in its entirety
- Reintroducing interest deductibility for residential landlords
- Scrapping corporate welfare and Government picking winners
- Means testing or targeting more welfare spending
- Abolishing ministries based on demographics
- Introducing sharing with councils for construction GST revenue
Taxpayer Talk: Phil Barry On The Real Cost Of The Coming Crackdown On Smokers 🎙️🎧
A radical set of new anti-smoking measures is set to bring New Zealand close to a de facto prohibition on smoking. But with the black market rearing its head, what is the real cost of this crackdown for taxpayers, businesses and the economy? Ironically, our health's finances rely on those few who still smoke. For a decade smoking taxes have paid more than four times over the health costs of lighting up.
A major new analysis of Ayesha Verrall's Smoked Tobacco Amendment outlines $1.3 billion in new costs, and argues the legislation is "largely, if not entirely, redundant".
This week on Taxpayer Talk, Taxpayers' Union outgoing spokesman for lifestyle economics Louis Houlbrooke is joined by Phil Barry, a director of TDB Advisory who worked with Infometrics to produce the new report.
One more thing... 😕
Next week we will be finalising our ad-spend and campaign budget through to voting next month. I'll admit we've been so busy campaigning, we are well below budget to book the advertising and events we had originally planned for the coming weeks. This work is fuelled by New Zealanders like you who back our work for Lower Taxes, Less Waste, and More Accountability. To join up as a member click here, or to make a secure and confidential donation, click here.
Thank you for your support.
Stuff Newsable: Warriors fight on, political week wrap, animal dreams, Fun Fact Friday (08:20)
RNZ New TPU-Curia poll: National, ACT remain in position to form government
The Platform Free Speech Fridays #43 - Jonathan Ayling & Maurice Williamson
NZ Herald Election 2023: Labour polls at 27pc in Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll for September
RNZ The Pre-Panel with Catherine Robertson and Steve McCabe (01:30)
Newstalk ZB Barry Soper: Newstalk ZB Senior Political Correspondent on another poll putting Labour below 30 percent
The Post Hipkins puts on a brave face in 'heartland' Ōhāriu
Newstalk ZB Afternoon Edition: 08 September 2023 – September Poll
NZ Herald Election 2023: Claire Trevett – NZ First rodeo, National-Luxon attack ads, Labour poll strain kicks in
The Post Extra spending doesn't always mean wasteful spending
Newshub Newshub Nation Battlegrounds: Labour MP scolds The Opportunities Party leader Raf Manji for splitting the vote in Ilam, Christchurch
interest.co.nz Most new polls show National would need support from both the Act and New Zealand First parties to form a majority government
RNZ Advocacy angst as campaign begins
Newstalk ZB Mike's Minute: This weekend opened a gap in the election race
NZ Herald On the Campaign: 'Trainwreck' interviews and packed policy announcements (11:10)
Northern Advocate Far North news in brief: Community grants; meet the candidates and Awanui crash
Newstalk ZB Live: Luxon gatecrashed while waving signs, Labour plummets in poll
RNZ Election 2023 updates for 12 September: Hipkins 'pretty pleased' with PREFU, National says it shows 'more pain to come'
NZ Herald Election 2023: Audrey Young - even an economic miracle can’t save Labour now
Newshub Election 2023: Taxpayers' Union says National 'bit ratty' about gatecrashed human hoarding event
Newstalk ZB Midday Edition: 12 September 2023 – Debt Clock
Newstalk ZB Election Fix: 12 September 2023 – Debt Clock (04:50)
NZ Herald On The Campaign: What does the PREFU mean for our politicians and the economy? (11:07)
RNZ Party leaders ride the highs and lows of new poll
1News Election 2023: Politicians react to economy revelations (05:31)
BusinessDesk Poll gives Jones little chance of winning Northland seat
RNZ Northland electorate poll predicts clear defeat for Labour's Willow-Jean Prime
The Daily Blog Taxpayers’ Union Northland Electorate debate hosted by The Working Group
RNZ Election 2023: Photos from the campaign trail, Tuesday 12 September
Newsroom Once safe blue seat of Ilam now more politically fluid
Politik To cut or not to cut
RNZ National not impressed by PREFU (05:49)
Northern Advocate Election 2023: Northland electorate looks like heading back to National — poll
RNZ Raucous Northland debate crowd rails at Covid, te reo Māori mentions
Newstalk ZB The Huddle: Can National afford their promised tax cuts?
NZ Herald Election 2023: Voters think National-Act-NZ First is a ‘coalition of chaos’ - poll
NZ Herald On The Campaign: The criticism grows for National's tax plan - will it matter to voters? (14:20)
The Crux Finance spokespeople face off in fun, sometimes fiery, Queenstown debate
NZ Herald Matthew Hooton: Tax cuts? It's spending cuts we need
Politik Willis under pressure in Queenstown
The Daily Blog Northland Debate: Winners and Losers
Newsroom When four politicians walk into a room
Newstalk ZB Morning Edition: 16 September 2023 – Willis Resignation Commitment (00:52)
Newsroom Electorates to Watch: the Battle for Northland
DemocracyProject Bryce Edwards: A Very hollow election
The Spinoff Angry Fence Man is in the house (or outside of it, anyway)
The Daily Blog The Working Group/Taxpayers’ Union Post Leaders Debate analysis live from Backbenchers Pub
The Spinoff Megapod 1: The first TVNZ leaders debate assessed (09:30)
RNZ Red wave may be breaking in battle for Ilam
Newstalk ZB The Huddle: Should Chris Luxon confirm a collaboration with Winston Peters- or wait til after the election?
The Listener Danyl McLauchlan: A week of prospects, protests and possibilities
NBR Still no sign of National's fiscal plan and detailed costings
Kiwiblog Official government advice was that only 30% of a GST exemption is passed on.
NZ Herald Election 2023: More fiscal holes as Labour faces questions about GST policy