NEW POLL: Labour hits record low but warning signs for Luxon and new Government

National is down 2.2 points on last month's poll to 37.4%, while Labour also drops by 2.6 points to 25.3%. The Greens are up to 11.3% (+2.3 points), overtaking ACT who drop back to 10.0% (-3.7 points).

The smaller parties are NZ First on 7.4% (+2.4 points) and Te Pāti Māori on 2.5% (+0.2 points).

For the minor parties, TOP is on 2.1%, Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.3%, Vision NZ is on 0.8%, Democracy NZ is on 0.4%, and others on 1.5%.

This month's results are compared to the last month's Taxpayers' Union – Curia poll

National is down 1 seat on last month to 48 while Labour is down two seats to 32. The Greens overtake ACT with 15 seats (up four) to the latter's 13 (down four). NZ First is up 3 seats to 9 while Te Pāti Māori is unchanged on 6 seats.

This calculation assumes that all electorate seats are held. A Parliament on these figures would have an overhang of 3 seats and a total of 123 seats.

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 70 is down 2 from last month while the Centre-Left is up two seats to 53.

On these numbers, National and ACT would require the support of NZ First to form a government.

Christopher Luxon's net favourability drops significantly by 16 points to -5% while Chris Hipkins drops 2 points to 2%. Seymour is unchanged on -8% while Winston Peters improves by 10 points to -12%.

More detailed results, including net 'country direction' data and our new 'government approval' rating, which both turn back negative this month, are available on our website.