Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: July 2023
Here are the headline results for Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change from last month |
|
National |
33.3% |
↓2.4 |
|
Labour |
31.1% |
↓1.8 |
|
ACT |
13.2% |
↑0.5 |
|
Green |
8.9% |
↓0.8 |
|
Māori |
5.0% |
↑1.5 |
|
NZ First |
3.3% |
↑1.7 |
|
Other |
5.2% |
↑1.3 |
National drops 2.4 points on last month to 33.3% while Labour drops 1.8 points to 31.1%. ACT is up 0.5 points to 13.2% while the Greens are down 0.8 points to 8.9%.
The smaller parties are the Māori Party 5.0% (+1.5 points), NZ First on 3.3% (+1.7 points), Democracy NZ on 1.9% (+1 point), New Conservatives on 0.4% (-0.9 points), and TOP on 0.3% (-0.5 points).
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change from last month |
|
National |
43 |
↓3 |
|
Labour |
41 |
↓1 |
|
ACT |
17 |
↑1 |
|
Green |
12 |
nc |
|
Māori |
7 |
↑3 |
National is down 3 seats on last month to 43 while Labour is down 1 seat to 41. ACT is up 1 seat to 17 while the Greens are unchanged on last month at 12 seats. The Māori Party is up 3 seats on last month to 7.
The combined projected seats for the Centre Right of 60 seats is down 2 on last month while the combined total for the Centre Left is up 2 seats to 60. This results in a hung parliament, meaning neither bloc can command a majority in the House of Representatives.
*From June 2023, the Māori Party has been included in the Centre-Left bloc given National’s decision to rule out forming a government with them.
In the Preferred Prime Minister stakes, both major party leaders have dropped in support since last month. Chris Hipkins sees a drop of 6 points to 23% while Christopher Luxon sees a drop of 3 points to 20%.
Jacinda Ardern still registers at 8% for preferred Prime Minister (down 1 point on last month last month) while David Seymour drops 1 point to 6%.
Winston Peters is on 3.6% (+0.8 points), Chlöe Swarbrick is on 2.3% (-0.1 points), Nicola Willis is also on 2.2% (-0.2 points), Matt King is on 1.9% (+1 point), Leighton Baker is on 1.1% (-0.2 points), Chris Bishop is on 1.1% (nc), James Shaw is on 0.6% (-0.2 points), and Marama Davidson is on 1.8% (+1.1 points).
Just 22.1% (-2.7 points on last month) of New Zealanders think the country is heading in the right direction while 64.5% (+7.1 points) think the country is heading in the wrong direction. This results in a new record low for the net country direction of -42.4% (-9.8 points).
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The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 2 July to Monday 10 July 2023. The median response was collected on Thursday 6 July 2023. The sample size was 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters: 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 15,000 nationwide phone numbers. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.