Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: September 2023
Here are the headline results for September's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change from last month |
|
National |
35.0% |
↑0.1 |
|
Labour |
26.5% |
↓0.6 |
|
ACT |
14.3% |
↑1.3 |
|
Green |
12.7% |
↑0.7 |
|
NZ First |
3.9% |
↓1.9 |
|
Māori |
2.9% |
↑0.4 |
|
Other |
4.7% |
↓0.1 |
National increases 0.1 points on last month to 35.0% while Labour drops 0.6 points to 26.5%. ACT is up 1.3 points to 14.3% while the Greens are up 0.7 points to 12.7%.
The smaller parties are NZ First on 3.9% (-1.9 points), the Māori Party on 2.9% (+0.4 points), TOP on 2.7% (+1.7 points), New Conservatives on 0.8% (+0.2 points), Vision NZ on 0.5% (-0.6 points), and Outdoors and Freedom on 0.2%. (-0.3 points).
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change from last month |
|
National |
45 |
↑1 |
|
Labour |
35 |
↑1 |
|
ACT |
19 |
↑2 |
|
Green |
17 |
↑2 |
|
NZ First |
0 |
↓7 |
|
Māori |
4 |
↑1 |
National and Labour are both up 1 seat on last month to 45 and 35 seats respectively. ACT is up 2 seats to 19 while the Greens pick up 2 seats for a total of 17. The Māori Party is up 1 seat on last month to 4. NZ First would win no seats in Parliament (-7 seats).
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 64 seats is up 3 on last month and would allow them to form a Government.
The combined seats for the Centre-Left bloc of 56 is up 4 on last month.
Note: From June 2023, the Māori Party has been included in the Centre-Left bloc given National’s decision to rule out forming a government with them. New Zealand First is not included in either bloc.
National’s lead over Labour as the best economic manager narrows slightly to a 20-point lead (down 4 points on last month). National also have a 21-point (+4 points) lead on tackling inflation and a 14-point (-1 point) lead on law and order. National continues to be in the lead on leadership for the second month in a row with a 4-point lead (nc).
Labour has pushed slightly ahead of National with a 1-point lead on jobs (+2 points).
43% (+3 points) of voters have a favourable view of Chris Hipkins while 26% (-4 points) have an unfavourable view for a net favourability of +16% (+7 points). 37% (+6 points) of voters have a favourable view of Christopher Luxon while 41% (+2 points) have an unfavourable view for a net favourability of -4% (+3 points). David Seymour has a net favourability of -13% (-5 points). James Shaw has a net favourability of -16% while Rawiri Waititi scores -23% and Winston Peters is on -38%.
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The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Thursday 31 August to Wednesday 06 September 2023. The median response was collected on Monday 04 September 2023. The sample size was 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters: 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 15,000 nationwide phone numbers. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.