Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: August 2023
Here are the headline results for August's Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll:
|
Party |
Support |
Change from last month |
|
National |
34.9% |
↑1.6 |
|
Labour |
27.1% |
↓4.0 |
|
ACT |
13.0% |
↓0.2 |
|
Green |
12.0% |
↑3.1 |
|
NZ First |
5.8% |
↑2.5 |
|
Māori |
2.5% |
↓2.5 |
|
Other |
4.8% |
↓0.4 |
National increases 1.6 points on last month to 34.9% while Labour drops 4.0 points to 27.1%. ACT is down 0.2 points to 13.0% while the Greens are up 3.1 points to 12.0%.
The smaller parties are NZ First on 5.8% (+2.5 points), the Māori Party on 2.5% (-2.5 points), Vision NZ on 1.1% (+1.1 points), TOP on 1.0% (+0.7 points), New Conservatives on 0.6% (+0.2 points), Outdoors and Freedom on 0.5% (+0.5 points), and Democracy NZ on 0.1% (-1.8 points).
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
|
Party |
Seats |
Change from last month |
|
National |
44 |
↑1 |
|
Labour |
34 |
↓7 |
|
ACT |
17 |
nc |
|
Green |
15 |
↑3 |
|
NZ First |
7 |
↑7 |
|
Māori |
3 |
↓4 |
National is up 1 seat on last month to 44 while Labour is down 7 seats to 34. ACT is steady on 17 seats while the Greens pick up 3 seats to a total of 15. The Māori Party is down 4 seats on last month to 3. NZ First re-enters Parliament on these numbers with 7 seats.
The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 61 seats is up 1 on last month and would allow them to form government.
The combined seats for the Centre-Left bloc of 52 is down 8 on last month.
Note: From June 2023, the Māori Party has been included in the Centre-Left bloc given National’s decision to rule out forming a government with them. New Zealand First is not included in either bloc.
In the Preferred Prime Minister stakes, Chris Hipkins is up 2 points on last month to 25% while Christopher Luxon is up 5 points to 25%. This is the first time the two have been tied in our poll.
David Seymour is up 1 point to 7% while Winston Peters is also on 7% (up 3 points). 5% still prefer Jacinda Ardern as Prime Minister (down 3 points) while Chloë Swarbrick is up 2 points to 4%.
Nicola Willis is on 2.8%, James Shaw is on 0.9%, Chris Bishop, Marmara Davidson and Leighton Baker are all on 0.8%, and Matt King is on 0.3%.
National maintains its lead over Labour as the best economic manager with a 24-point lead (up 3 points on last month). The party also has a 17-point (+1 point) lead on tackling inflation, a 15-point (+1 points) lead on law and order, and a 1-point (nc) lead on jobs. National takes the lead on leadership for the first time in our poll with a 4-point advantage over Labour (+8 points).
Labour now only remains ahead of National on health with a slightly larger lead than last month of 4 points (up 4 points).
For the full polling report, covering the detailed insights the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are used to receiving, join our Taxpayer Caucus – our club of most generous financial supporters who make our work possible.
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.
The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Thursday 03 to Tuesday 08 August 2023.. The median response was collected on Sunday 06 August 2023. The sample size was 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters: 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 15,000 nationwide phone numbers. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.
This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.