Social Spending

• Labour's social spending has reduced to $5.63 billion, or $2,717 per household, down from $5.80 billion before its fiscal plan.
• We have removed the standalone $1.17 billion we had included for health spending funded by the Capital Gains Tax, since the plan's own health lines now cost broader increases to health funding, and corrected their income-related rent subsidy costings down from $542 million cost to $73.4 million now that Labour intends to cut the accommodation supplement as well as part of the same policy package.
• Having pointed out that Labour had incorrectly banked this $73.4 million as a saving rather than a cost, which is an error of $146.8 million over the 2028-2031 period, the Labour Party has agreed to fix their fiscal plan.
• ACT's plan to end the Government KiwiSaver contribution for members who receive employer contributions saves $2.59 billion over four years, taking its social spending total to a $2.5 billion saving.

This page details the election promises related to social spending for individuals and families, including:

• health (community, primary, secondary and tertiary);
• education (pre-school/ECE, primary/secondary schools, tertiary, other); and
• welfare (benefits and tax credits, community, superannuation and KiwiSaver, other).

Health

Labour has committed the most to new health spending this election, at $3.30 billion over four years, or $1,593 per household. The largest item is the Medicard package, including three free GP visits, which Labour's fiscal plan costs at $2.0 billion. Labour have also promised taxpayer-funded prescriptions ($296 million), taxpayer-funded maternity scans ($86 million), GP loans ($32 million) and 'prevention' ($44 million). Taxpayer-funded cervical screening is $82 million, taken from Labour's costing. Labour's graduate nurse job guarantee for 2,700 graduates each year is costed at $525 million over four years. Hospital repairs from the Start Work Now package add $200 million of capital spending.

Labour would also extend ACC to cover volunteer firefighters and mental health injuries, which we cost at $26.7 million over four years. Its rainbow healthcare policy is costed at $5.4 million, based on the 2022 funding package adjusted for inflation.

ACT allowing pharmacies to diversify the services they offer is costed at $92 million, based on the $23 million cost of a 2023 pilot scheme. As ACT's policy is broader than the pilot, the true cost is likely to be higher than this minimum estimate. A baseline increase to Pharmac's budget is costed at $1.9 billion over four years, using the midpoint of ACT's own year-by-year projections. However, this is to be funded from existing health budgets.

The Greens have pledged to increase Pharmac's budget. We have provided a conservative cost estimate of at least a 10% uplift, representing $720 million. 

National's sole costed health commitment this election is $70 million over four years to finish the fit-out of Christchurch Hospital with 96 new beds.

The Opportunity Party's promise to reinstate the 2025 smokefree legislation is costed as an effective $1.5 billion expense over four years, reflecting the tobacco excise revenue Treasury expects the party to forgo.

NZ First's series of 'Make New Zealand Healthy' health policy announcements have been costed at $2.1 billion, or $1,019 per household, chiefly driven by an assumed increase in nurse's pay. A breakdown can be found on the NZ First page here.

Education

The Greens are by far the most ambitious party on education, committing $46.4 billion. This includes $16.2 billion for the long-term intended aim of a writing off outstanding student loan debt, $14.4 billion for a universal student allowance to cover students' basic needs, $8 billion for free tertiary education up to a first degree (based on 257,000 students at an average $8,000 tuition fee), $5.4 billion for free early childhood education for all, $2.2 billion for free school lunches in all schools, and $200 million to expand free apprenticeship programmes by 20%.

Labour has committed $1.72 billion in new education spending over four years, or $832 per household. This includes wiping 10 percent of some student loans ($583 million), taken from Labour's costing, and changes to school lunches. Labour's plan funds school lunches at $590.8 million over three years. Labour has said it will continue the programme, so we have added $149.2 million for 2031, the one year with no funding, for a total of $740 million. Start Work Now adds $400 million of capital spending for school improvements.

The Opportunity Party has committed $745.9 million over four years, or $360 per household, spread across restoring Polytech funding ($320 million), forgiving overseas student loans ($380 million), supporting offsite builders who take on apprentices ($31.2 million), and growing the number of te reo Māori teachers ($14.7 million).

National and ACT have not announced costed education policies this election, and NZ First has made no education commitments either.

Welfare

National's welfare package, worth $1.6 billion over four years or $766 per household, is built almost entirely around family and retirement settings: a $360 million Baby Boost, a $109.3 million parental leave top-up, $385.2 million in increased Government KiwiSaver contributions, $282.8 million for the Crown as an employer, $327.4 million to extend paid parental leave from 26 to 30 weeks, and $121.9 million to extend KiwiSaver to those on parental leave.

Labour's welfare commitments total $606 million over four years, or $292 per household. Its plan prints a $73.4 million saving from reversing the Government's income-related rent and Accommodation Supplement changes. We've pointed out that this was a mistake, and Labour's changes were a cost. They have agreed to fix this. Labour would extend KiwiSaver contributions to parents on paid parental leave, at $89.2 million over the three years from July 2028, and lift the Crown's KiwiSaver cost as an employer, at $443.3 million.

The Greens' welfare commitments are extraordinary, totalling $131.6 billion. The overwhelming driver is a $96 billion commitment to extend ACC cover to all injuries, disability and illness regardless of origin — based on a 1988 Royal Commission estimate that such an extension would cost around four times the existing scheme. The party has also pledged to lift benefits to a "liveable rate" as recommended by the Welfare Expert Advisory Group, costing an estimate $27.6 billion; $6.6 billion to extend paid parental leave to 65 weeks, and a one-off $1.37 billion towards writing off MSD debt.

NZ First has committed to saving $2.1 billion, or $1,033 per household, from restricting superannuation to NZ citizens from 2029. Similarly, NZ First have proposed a 10-year welfare stand-down for non-citizens, which we cost as saving $68 million over four years.  But the party has also promised a Kiwi Kids Grant ($1.6 billion) and a $1,000 KiwiSaver contribution at birth ($240 million), reducing the net saving to $368 million or $177 per household.

For the Opportunity Party's welfare policy, their Citizen's Income (Universal Basic Income) would cost $69.6 billion a year gross, offset by abolishing existing welfare benefits (a $37.8 billion saving) and administrative savings ($3.8 billion). This still requires $15.6 billion a year in additional supplementary welfare spending. The net result is $43.6 billion a year, or $174.5 billion over four years, equivalent to $84,214 per household.

ACT would end the Government Contribution to KiwiSaver for members who receive employer contributions, which ACT estimates saves $2.59 billion over four years, or $1,250 per household. ACT would also remove tax on KiwiSaver earnings, but that is a revenue measure and is not counted.

Note: Te Pāti Māori has announced a $3.1 billion kai sovereignty fund ($1,496 per household). We have not included Te Pāti Māori's policy statements in this week's Bribe-O-Meter as much of the policy platform remains essentially uncostable.

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