Economic Development

• Labour's 'jobs, homes and infrastructure' package is the only new economic development spending this week. We have taken the party's $4.3 billion, or $2,073 per household, costings at face value.
• This aims to build 6,000 new state homes, as well as school and hospital improvements.

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This page details the election promises related to economic development including:

• industry and trade development;
• infrastructure;
• innovation, science and technology;
• energy;
• housing development;
• regional support;
• subsidies;
• transport

Economic development

Industry, trade development & competition

NZ First have the largest commitment by far: a one-off $26.7 billion buyback of Bank of New Zealand, calculated by applying the NAB profit multiplier (16.19x) to BNZ's latest annual profit plus a 10% premium. NZ First have committed to separate the retail and generation arms of the electricity gentailers. We have costed this policy at $273 million. 

Labour have committed $2.8 billion, almost entirely made up of foregoing dividends the Crown would otherwise receive from the Future Fund, plus $57 million to expand the apprenticeship boost. Their pledge to "replace" the Investment Boost tax incentive has been costed as broadly cost-neutral.

The Opportunity Party has pledged $216 million, including a $136 million tax deduction for impact investment and $80 million to expand FinCap support to small businesses. The Opportunity Party have also committed $100 million, including an $80 million uplift for the Commerce Commission and $20 million for a Consumer Advocacy Fund.

National has committed $1.4 million for 23 new trade missions over the term. National's $5 million Commerce Commission inquiry into breaking up Foodstuffs has also been included. Labour's plans to ban price gouging have been costed at $80 million, and their regulation of supermarket prices at $8.57 million.

The Greens have proposed establishing "KiwiMart" by forcing Foodstuffs and Woolworths to divest 120 stores and some warehouses. Using MBIE figures provided to Cabinet in 2023, we have estimated the Greens' plans at $4.7 billion, or $2,259 per household. The Greens' proposed tribunal to handle disputes over auctions of leases on long-vacant commercial properties is also costed at $7.2 million over four years.

Infrastructure
NZ First have committed $13.3 billion, almost all of it a four-year share of their flagship $100 billion 30-year infrastructure fund.

The Opportunity Party have committed $16.1 billion, dominated by an estimated $15.9 billion cost of refunding GST collected on construction activity back to local councils, plus $108 million to boost the infrastructure agency Te Waihanga. TOP's proposed $60 billion infrastructure fund has not been costed, as it would be capital rather than operating expenditure.

Including the interest costs on Opportunity's $60 billion infrastructure fund adds another $12 billion.

Energy
The Green Party has the largest energy programme at $3.1 billion, including $980.6 million for "Kiwipower", $969.8 million to expand Warmer Kiwi Homes, $460 million for solar on public housing stock, $428.7 million in zero-interest solar loans and $200 million for community-owned energy.

The Opportunity Party have committed $484 million, including $400 million for small-scale generation projects.

NZ First have proposed a $1 billion subsurface development survey.

National have committed $7 million to a Home Energy Fund of low-interest solar loans.

Transport
The Green Party have by far the largest transport commitment, at $18.8 billion. Of this, $17.2 billion is earmarked for nationwide rapid and light rail, with the remainder covering $1.2 billion for comprehensive bus lanes and $337 million in EV subsidies.

Labour have committed to cap public transport fares, costing $260 million over four years. We dispute this figure, estimating a cost close to $648 million. 

The Opportunity Party have committed $500 million to electrify the bus fleet.

National have committed $275 million, including $200 million of National Land Transport Fund money towards a Queenstown gondola congestion fix, $50 million for a Rolleston intermodal freight hub, and $25 million to four-lane the Queenstown road.

Innovation, science and technology
The Opportunity Party is the only party with a substantial programme here, totalling $4.3 billion — including a $2.4 billion tax credit for technology adoption, $700 million to expand contestable research funds, $500 million to restore the core science budget, $400 million for early- and mid-career researchers, a $120 million widened R&D tax credit, $106 million to double incubator funding and $80 million for polytechnic Public Research Organisation (PRO) bulk funding.

Labour have committed $36 million to an AI fund for SMEs.

Housing development
The Green Party have committed $9.4 billion to build tens of thousands of new public homes.

The Opportunity Party have committed $320 million to expand the Warm Homes programme.

Labour's 'jobs, homes and infrastructure' package covers building 6,000 state homes, along with school and hospital improvements. The party has costed it at $4.3 billion, or $2,073 per household. This has been placed in the 'housing development' subcategory, as house-building accounts for the majority of the cost of this package.

Regional support
The Green Party have committed $4.8 billion to regional and iwi development, including a $2.4 billion Te Rangatiratanga Trust, a $2 billion "intergenerational fund" and $400 million for a Te Rākau restoration fund. New Zealand First have committed $15 million towards restoring Christchurch Cathedral.

Subsidies
The Opportunity Party has committed $1.3 billion to make all public transport free. Opportunity have announced an Industry Energy Resilience Fund to electrify New Zealand industry. This is to be paid for from foregone Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) revenue. We have costed this at $407 million, or $196 per household.

Opportunity have also proposed a $5 billion Climate Resilience Fund.

Labour have committed $160 million to repurpose the LNG fund into a "SolarSaver" scheme.

Note: Te Pāti Māori has proposed a $1 billion energy sovereignty fund, costing $483 per household. We have not included it in this week's Bribe-O-Meter as most of their policy platform remains essentially uncostable.

Note: This does not include $60 billion in capex for infrastructure (an infrastructure fund and small scale electricity generation projects) pledged by TOP that remains unspecified and without a timeline. ACT have not costed any economic development policies this election. Their transport policy aims to reallocate funding from cultural spending to core transport investment, but this is neither a cost increase or decrease.

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