Economic Development

• NZ First’s ten-point rail policy adds $617 million above existing baselines, taking its economic development total to $41.97 billion, or $20,257 per household.
• Labour adds $58 million: rent-to-buy ($22.9 million) and a higher First Home Loan income cap ($5 million) under housing, and marae resilience funding ($30 million) under regional support. That takes its total to $7.98 billion, or $3,853 per household.

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This page details the election promises related to economic development including:

• industry and trade development;
• infrastructure;
• innovation, science and technology;
• energy;
• housing development;
• regional support;
• subsidies;
• transport

Economic development

Industry, trade development & competition

NZ First have the largest commitment by far: a one-off $26.7 billion buyback of Bank of New Zealand, calculated by applying the NAB profit multiplier (16.19x) to BNZ's latest annual profit plus a 10% premium. NZ First have committed to separate the retail and generation arms of the electricity gentailers. We have costed this policy at $273 million. NZ First would also lift funding for the Centre of Digital Excellence by $2 million a year, or $8 million over four years, which we have taken at its word.

Labour has committed $3.4 billion, mostly from the $2.8 billion of state-owned enterprise dividends it would forgo to redirect them to the Future Fund. The plan also adds a $200 million Future Fund capital injection, a $226 million expansion of the Apprenticeship Boost and $84 million for Māori trades training. Labour's plans to ban price gouging have been costed at $80 million, their regulation of supermarket prices at $8.6 million, and enforcement of a new 'Fair Go' law at $8.1 million. Labour's replacement for the Investment Boost tax incentive is a tax rather than spending initiative, so it is not included in the Bribe-O-Meter.

The Opportunity Party has pledged $216 million, including a $136 million tax deduction for impact investment and $80 million to expand FinCap support to small businesses. The Opportunity Party have also committed $100 million, including an $80 million uplift for the Commerce Commission and $20 million for a Consumer Advocacy Fund.

National has committed $1.4 million for 23 new trade missions over the term. National’s $5 million Commerce Commission inquiry into breaking up Foodstuffs has also been included. National’s Agriculture Manifesto includes $300 million of concessional water storage loans and a $10 million Critical Agri Inputs Fund. National says these are managed through the existing Primary Sector Growth Fund, so we have counted them at nil.

The Greens have proposed establishing "KiwiMart" by forcing Foodstuffs and Woolworths to divest 120 stores and some warehouses. Using MBIE figures provided to Cabinet in 2023, we have estimated the Greens' plans at $4.7 billion, or $2,259 per household. The Greens' proposed tribunal to handle disputes over auctions of leases on long-vacant commercial properties is also costed at $7.2 million over four years.

The Greens’ ‘A Job for Every Young Person’ jobs guarantee has been costed at $4.86 billion. These are the party’s own costings, which it calls indicative. This takes the Greens’ industry, trade development and competition total to $9.5 billion, or $4,608 per household.

Infrastructure
NZ First have committed $13.3 billion, almost all of it a four-year share of their flagship $100 billion 30-year infrastructure fund.

The Opportunity Party have committed $16.1 billion, dominated by an estimated $15.9 billion cost of refunding GST collected on construction activity back to local councils, plus $108 million to boost the infrastructure agency Te Waihanga. TOP's proposed $60 billion infrastructure fund has not been costed, as it would be capital rather than operating expenditure.

Including the interest costs on Opportunity's $60 billion infrastructure fund adds another $12 billion.

Energy

The Green Party has the largest energy programme at $3.1 billion, including $980.6 million for "Kiwipower", $969.8 million to expand Warmer Kiwi Homes, $460 million for solar on public housing stock, $428.7 million in zero-interest solar loans and $200 million for community-owned energy.

The Opportunity Party have committed $184 million, including $100 million for small-scale generation projects.

NZ First have proposed a $1 billion subsurface development survey.

National have committed $7 million to a Home Energy Fund of low-interest solar loans.

Transport

The Green Party has by far the largest transport commitment, at $24.3 billion, or $11,719 per household, following the release of its 2026 transport policy. Passenger rail and mass rapid transit is costed at $21.1 billion. The remainder is $1.28 billion for taxpayer-funded and capped public transport fares, $824 million for council public transport shortfall funding (which includes bus priority lanes and replaces our earlier $1.2 billion bus lanes estimate), $407 million for inter-regional buses, $290 million for walking and cycling, $75 million for electric buses and $337 million in EV subsidies.

National has committed $2.9 billion, or $1,412 per household, including $1.85 billion for Mill Road Stage One and route protection, $800 million for the Belfast to Pegasus motorway and Woodend bypass, $200 million of National Land Transport Fund money towards a Queenstown gondola congestion fix, $50 million for a Rolleston intermodal freight hub and $25 million to four-lane the Queenstown road.

Labour has committed to cap public transport fares. Labour has previously costed this at $260 million over four years. We dispute this figure and estimate $648 million.

The Opportunity Party has committed $500 million to electrify the bus fleet.

NZ First’s ten-point rail policy adds $617 million, replacing its earlier one-year Canterbury commuter rail trial. This is $100 million for the Kaimai Tunnel, $130 million for new Te Huia trains, $300 million for level crossings, $50 million for Auckland’s third and fourth main lines and $5 million for Auckland Rail and Wellington Rail, and $18 million for Christchurch passenger rail, taking NZ First at its word on the new money. We have also costed Te Huia’s operating costs at $14.1 million.

Innovation, science and technology

The Greens have the largest commitment here: an economic development plan, which they estimate at $5.94 billion over four years, or $2,869 per household. We have included it at the Greens’ own figure. The Greens have also promised a $225 million a year boost to tertiary, science and research funding as part of that plan. We have counted it within the $5.94 billion, so it is nil in the table. If it is additional, it would add $900 million.

The Opportunity Party has the next largest programme, totalling $4.3 billion, including a $2.4 billion tax credit for technology adoption, $700 million to expand contestable research funds, $500 million to restore the core science budget, $400 million for early- and mid-career researchers, a $120 million widened R&D tax credit, $106 million to double incubator funding and $80 million for polytechnic Public Research Organisation (PRO) bulk funding.

Labour have committed $36 million to an AI fund for SMEs.

Housing development

The Green Party has committed $9.4 billion to build tens of thousands of new public homes.

The Opportunity Party has committed $800 million to expand the Warm Homes programme, at $200 million a year.

Labour's 'jobs, homes and infrastructure' package (Start Work Now) includes building 6,000 state homes. On the housing side we cost it at $3.7 billion, or $1,783 per household: $2.9 billion for the Kāinga Ora build and $795 million for rent subsidies and running costs. The package's school ($400 million) and hospital ($200 million) improvements are now counted under education and health in the Social Spending page.

Labour has also announced rent-to-buy for Kāinga Ora and community housing tenants, which we have costed at $22.9 million over four years, and would lift the First Home Loan income cap to $300,000. We have costed this using the midpoint of National’s $4 million to $6 million estimate for the same policy, however unlike Labour the National Party have said this will be funded from existing baselines. Together with Start Work Now, this takes Labour’s housing total to $3.7 billion, or $1,797 per household.

National would lift the First Home Loan income cap to $300,000. It puts the fiscal impact at $4 million to $6 million, funded from existing baselines, so we have counted it at nil.

Regional support

The Green Party have committed $2.4 billion to regional and iwi development through Te Waonui a Tāne, a marae trust that includes the Te Rākau restoration fund and an intergenerational fund. We had previously counted these as three separate lines, at $4.8 billion, but the fiscal plan suggests these funds sit within the trust.

Labour’s manifesto promises to fund marae emergency preparedness and resilience, with no amount given. We have costed this at $30 million over four years, using the 2022 allocation for the Māori Climate Platform as a proxy.

Subsidies

The Opportunity Party has committed $1.3 billion to make all public transport free. Opportunity have announced an Industry Energy Resilience Fund to electrify New Zealand industry. This is to be paid for from foregone Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) revenue. We have costed this at $407 million, or $196 per household.

Opportunity have also proposed a $5 billion Climate Resilience Fund.

Labour have committed $160 million to repurpose the LNG fund into a "SolarSaver" scheme.

NZ First would lift the Game Development Sector Rebate, doubling the rate to 40 percent and raising the cap per studio from $3 million to $10 million, which we cost at $31 million over four years against the existing baseline.

Note: Te Pāti Māori has proposed a $1 billion energy sovereignty fund, costing $483 per household. We have not included it in this week's Bribe-O-Meter as most of their policy platform remains essentially uncostable.

Note: This does not include $60 billion in capex for infrastructure (an infrastructure fund and small scale electricity generation projects) pledged by TOP that remains unspecified and without a timeline. ACT have not costed any economic development policies this election. Their transport policy aims to reallocate funding from cultural spending to core transport investment, but this is neither a cost increase nor a decrease. We have assumed the cost of their 'one-stop consenting shop' is nil as costs will be recovered from applicants.

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