Social Spending

• Labour's student loan policy, which wipes 10 percent of some loans, is the biggest social spending announcement this week. We have taken its $583 million costing at face value ($282 per household). Their ACC reforms for firefighters have been costed at $26.7 million and a rainbow healthcare strategy at a further $5.4 million.

This page details the election promises related to social spending for individuals and families, including:

• health (community, primary, secondary and tertiary);
• education (pre-school/ECE, primary/secondary schools, tertiary, other); and
• welfare (benefits and tax credits, community, superannuation and KiwiSaver, other).

Health

Labour has committed the most to new health spending this election, at $3.86 billion over four years, or $1,861 per household. This includes three free GP visits and related policies ($2.0 billion), additional health spending funded from the party's proposed Capital Gains Tax ($1.2 billion), and free cervical screening ($82 million). Labour has also pledged a job guarantee to 2,700 graduate nurses each year at a cost of $525 million over four years.

New this week, Labour would extend ACC to cover volunteer firefighters and mental health injuries, which we cost at $26.7 million over four years. This assumes new claims equal to 1 percent of Fire and Emergency New Zealand's roughly 14,900 personnel each year, at an average of $44,735 per claim. Its rainbow healthcare policy, covering gender-affirming primary care and intersex health services, is costed at $5.4 million, based on the 2022 funding package adjusted for inflation.

ACT allowing pharmacies to diversify the services they offer is costed at $92 million, based on the $23 million cost of a 2023 pilot scheme. As ACT's policy is broader than the pilot, the true cost is likely to be higher than this minimum estimate. A baseline increase to Pharmac's budget is costed at $1.9 billion over four years, using the midpoint of ACT's own year-by-year projections. However, this is to be funded from existing health budgets.

The Greens have pledged to increase Pharmac's budget. We have provided a conservative cost estimate of at least a 10% uplift, representing $720 million. 

National's sole costed health commitment this election is $70 million over four years to finish the fit-out of Christchurch Hospital with 96 new beds.

The Opportunity Party's promise to reinstate the 2025 smokefree legislation is costed as an effective $1.5 billion expense over four years, reflecting the tobacco excise revenue Treasury expects the party to forgo.

NZ First's series of 'Make New Zealand Healthy' health policy announcements have been costed at $2.1 billion, or $1,019 per household, chiefly driven by an assumed increase in nurse's pay. A breakdown can be found on the NZ First page here.

Education

The Greens are by far the most ambitious party on education, committing $46.4 billion. This includes $16.2 billion for the long-term intended aim of a writing off outstanding student loan debt, $14.4 billion for a universal student allowance to cover students' basic needs, $8 billion for free tertiary education up to a first degree (based on 257,000 students at an average $8,000 tuition fee), $5.4 billion for free early childhood education for all, $2.2 billion for free school lunches in all schools, and $200 million to expand free apprenticeship programmes by 20%.

Labour has committed $1.01 billion to education over four years, or $488 per household. This includes a return to locally made school lunches, costed at $427 million. It also includes wiping 10 percent of some student loans, which Labour has costed at $583 million. We have taken Labour at its word on the student loans.

The Opportunity Party has committed $745.9 million over four years, or $360 per household, spread across restoring Polytech funding ($320 million), forgiving overseas student loans ($380 million), supporting offsite builders who take on apprentices ($31.2 million), and growing the number of te reo Māori teachers ($14.7 million).

National and ACT have not announced costed education policies this election, and NZ First has made no education commitments either.

Welfare

National's welfare package, worth $1.6 billion over four years or $766 per household, is built almost entirely around family and retirement settings: a $360 million Baby Boost, a $109.3 million parental leave top-up, $385.2 million in increased Government KiwiSaver contributions, $282.8 million for the Crown as an employer, $327.4 million to extend paid parental leave from 26 to 30 weeks, and $121.9 million to extend KiwiSaver to those on parental leave.

Labour's welfare commitment so far total $934 million over four years, or $451 per household. This consists of $542 million over four years, or $262 per household, to reverse the increase in income-related rent charges. Labour has also pledged to extend KiwiSaver contributions on paid parental leave and increase employer KiwiSaver contributions to 6 percent by 2032. Together, we have costed these policies at a further $392 million.

The Greens' welfare commitments are extraordinary, totalling $131.6 billion. The overwhelming driver is a $96 billion commitment to extend ACC cover to all injuries, disability and illness regardless of origin — based on a 1988 Royal Commission estimate that such an extension would cost around four times the existing scheme. The party has also pledged to lift benefits to a "liveable rate" as recommended by the Welfare Expert Advisory Group, costing an estimate $27.6 billion; $6.6 billion to extend paid parental leave to 65 weeks, and a one-off $1.37 billion towards writing off MSD debt.

NZ First has committed to saving $2.1 billion, or $1,033 per household, from restricting superannuation to NZ citizens from 2029. Similarly, NZ First have proposed a 10-year welfare stand-down for non-citizens, which we cost as saving $68 million over four years.  But the party has also promised a Kiwi Kids Grant ($1.6 billion) and a $1,000 KiwiSaver contribution at birth ($240 million), reducing the net saving to $368 million or $177 per household.

For the Opportunity Party's welfare policy, their Citizen's Income (Universal Basic Income) would cost $69.6 billion a year gross, offset by abolishing existing welfare benefits (a $37.8 billion saving) and administrative savings ($3.8 billion). This still requires $15.6 billion a year in additional supplementary welfare spending. The net result is $43.6 billion a year, or $174.5 billion over four years, equivalent to $84,214 per household.

ACT has not costed any welfare changes this election.

Note: Te Pāti Māori has announced a $3.1 billion kai sovereignty fund ($1,496 per household). We have not included Te Pāti Māori's policy statements in this week's Bribe-O-Meter as much of the policy platform remains essentially uncostable.

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