Social Spending

• The Greens’ paid placements for student nurses, teachers and social workers ($310 million, including relocation payments) and a grants package to accompany the abolition of the training wage ($402 million) add $712 million, taking their social spending to $179.39 billion, or $86,578 per household.
• ACT has announced its $400 million 'to be confirmed' policy as funding for GP appointments. As such, it has been moved here under social spending.
• Labour’s Kids in sport programme adds $28 million, taking its social spending to $5.67 billion, or $2,736 per household.

This page details the election promises related to social spending for individuals and families, including:

• health (community, primary, secondary and tertiary);
• education (pre-school/ECE, primary/secondary schools, tertiary, other); and
• welfare (benefits and tax credits, community, superannuation and KiwiSaver, other).

Health

Labour has committed the most to new health spending this election, at $3.30 billion over four years, or $1,593 per household. The largest item is the Medicard package, including three free GP visits, which Labour's fiscal plan costs at $2.0 billion. Labour have also promised taxpayer-funded prescriptions ($296 million), taxpayer-funded maternity scans ($86 million), GP loans ($32 million) and 'prevention' ($44 million). Taxpayer-funded cervical screening is $82 million, taken from Labour's costing. Labour's graduate nurse job guarantee for 2,700 graduates each year is costed at $525 million over four years. Hospital repairs from the Start Work Now package add $200 million of capital spending.

Labour would also extend ACC to cover volunteer firefighters and mental health injuries, which we cost at $26.7 million over four years. Its rainbow healthcare policy is costed at $5.4 million, based on the 2022 funding package adjusted for inflation.

ACT’s fiscal plan costs allowing pharmacies to diversify the services they offer at $296 million over four years. ACT has also announced $400 million over four years for GP appointments, which fills the “to be announced” line in its fiscal plan. The plan also holds a $2.0 billion capital contingency for a National Cancer Centre ($200 million, $900 million and $900 million). ACT has also promised to increase Pharmac’s budget. We previously costed this at $1.9 billion, the midpoint of ACT’s range, but the fiscal plan includes no such funding and ACT’s 6 October release gave no figure (a one percentage point increase a year to 2033). We have therefore counted it at nil, taking ACT at its word that it comes from existing health budgets.

The Greens have pledged to increase Pharmac's budget. We have provided a conservative cost estimate of at least a 10% uplift, representing $720 million. 

National’s fiscal plan commits $894 million to health, or $431 per household. This is $604 million for Pharmac’s medicines budget ($151 million a year), $194.8 million to lower the bowel screening age to 50, $70 million to finish the fit-out of Christchurch Hospital with 96 new beds, and $25 million of capital to unlock CAR-T cell therapy.

The Opportunity Party's promise to reinstate the 2025 smokefree legislation is costed as an effective $1.5 billion expense over four years, reflecting the tobacco excise revenue Treasury expects the party to forgo.

NZ First's series of 'Make New Zealand Healthy' health policy announcements have been costed at $2.1 billion, or $1,019 per household, chiefly driven by an assumed increase in nurse's pay. A breakdown can be found on the NZ First page here.

Education

The Greens are by far the biggest spending party on education, committing $47.1 billion. This includes $16.2 billion for the long-term intended aim of a writing off outstanding student loan debt, $14.4 billion for a universal student allowance to cover students’ basic needs, $8 billion for free tertiary education up to a first degree (based on 257,000 students at an average $8,000 tuition fee), $5.4 billion for free early childhood education for all, $2.2 billion for free school lunches in all schools, and $200 million to expand free apprenticeship programmes by 20%. New this week, paid placements of $380 a week for student nurses, teachers and social workers are costed at $289 million, with $1,500 relocation payments adding $21 million. A package to abolish the training wage adds $402 million: a $2,000 equipment grant for each apprentice ($179 million), a $2,000 employer completion bonus ($103 million) and a $30 million a year Māori and Pasifika training uplift ($120 million).

Labour has committed $1.76 billion in new education spending over four years, or $851 per household. This includes wiping 10 percent of some student loans ($583 million), and changes to school lunches. Labour’s plan funds school lunches at $590.8 million over three years. Labour has said it will continue the programme, so we have added $149.2 million for 2031, the one year with no funding, for a total of $740 million. Start Work Now adds $400 million of capital spending for school improvements, and Labour’s pledge to restore 43 rural school bus routes adds $11 million. Its Kids in sport programme adds a further $28 million.

The Opportunity Party has committed $745.9 million over four years, or $360 per household, spread across restoring Polytech funding ($320 million), forgiving overseas student loans ($380 million), supporting offsite builders who take on apprentices ($31.2 million), and growing the number of te reo Māori teachers ($14.7 million).

National’s fiscal plan commits $528 million to education, or $255 per household. This is $451.8 million to extend the school lunch programme to 2029, and $76.6 million inside our four years to reduce the compulsory student loan repayment rate.

ACT’s fiscal plan includes $299 million, or $144 per household. This is $139 million for a Young Investors Fund (about $35 million a year, putting $500 into a controlled investment account for each Year 11 student), $10 million to index the independent school subsidy to public school funding increases, and a $150 million capital contingency in 2027/28 to acquire the former University of Auckland Epsom campus.

NZ First has made no education commitments.

Welfare

National’s welfare package, worth $1.03 billion over four years or $499 per household, is built around family and retirement settings: a $360 million Baby Boost, $385.2 million in increased Government KiwiSaver contributions, $423 million for the Crown as an employer, $327.4 million to extend paid parental leave from 26 to 30 weeks, and $121.9 million to extend KiwiSaver to those on parental leave. These are partly offset by $583 million of savings from stronger welfare expectations and case management.

Labour's welfare commitments total $606 million over four years, or $292 per household. Its plan prints a $73.4 million saving from reversing the Government's income-related rent and Accommodation Supplement changes. We've pointed out that this was a mistake, and Labour's changes were a cost. They have agreed to fix this. Labour would extend KiwiSaver contributions to parents on paid parental leave, at $89.2 million over the three years from July 2028, and lift the Crown's KiwiSaver cost as an employer, at $443.3 million.

The Greens' welfare commitments are extraordinary, totalling $131.6 billion. The overwhelming driver is a $96 billion commitment to extend ACC cover to all injuries, disability and illness regardless of origin — based on a 1988 Royal Commission estimate that such an extension would cost around four times the existing scheme. The party has also pledged to lift benefits to a "liveable rate" as recommended by the Welfare Expert Advisory Group, costing an estimate $27.6 billion; $6.6 billion to extend paid parental leave to 65 weeks, and a one-off $1.37 billion towards writing off MSD debt.

NZ First has committed to saving $2.1 billion, or $1,033 per household, from restricting superannuation to NZ citizens from 2029. Similarly, NZ First have proposed a 10-year welfare stand-down for non-citizens, which we cost as saving $68 million over four years. But the party has also promised a Kiwi Kids Grant ($1.6 billion), a $1,000 KiwiSaver contribution at birth ($240 million) and, new this week, a permanent $120 a week Working for Families in-work tax credit ($2.4 billion, the top of the party’s $500 to $600 million a year estimate). Together these turn the net saving into a net cost of $2.03 billion, or $981 per household.

For the Opportunity Party's welfare policy, their Citizen's Income (Universal Basic Income) would cost $69.6 billion a year gross, offset by abolishing existing welfare benefits (a $37.8 billion saving) and administrative savings ($3.8 billion). This still requires $15.6 billion a year in additional supplementary welfare spending. The net result is $43.6 billion a year, or $174.5 billion over four years, equivalent to $84,214 per household.

ACT books a welfare saving of $7.37 billion over four years, or $3,557 per household. The largest line is raising the superannuation age to 67 by 2035, at $4.06 billion net of $644 million for compassionate early access. ACT would also end the Government Contribution to KiwiSaver for members who receive employer contributions, which the fiscal plan puts at a $2.21 billion saving. Other savings are $653 million from 'bringing disability benefits under control', $320 million from a five-year welfare stand-down for residence class visa holders, and $379 million from non-frontline welfare administration, which is part of ACT’s wider public service cuts. These are partly offset by the cost of $251 million for electronic money management for work-ready Jobseeker recipients who have been on a benefit for more than four months.

Note: Te Pāti Māori has announced a $3.1 billion kai sovereignty fund ($1,496 per household) and, this week, around $1.25 billion of kōhanga reo, kura Māori and Te Ahu o te Reo funding ($603 per household). We have not included Te Pāti Māori’s policy statements in this week’s Bribe-O-Meter as much of the policy platform remains essentially uncostable.

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