The 2023 Census – a complete failure or an absolute disaster?

It was a census that Statistics Minister Deborah Russell said she would ‘absolutely’ stake her job on if there wasn’t a 90% response rate or higher. But as the collection process officially came to an end, and the raw figure putted out at just over 89%, not only did Russell keep her job, but she even had the nerve to call it all a ‘success.’

Maybe ‘success’ is in the eye of the beholder, but how anyone can look at this year’s edition and call it anything other than a disaster, frankly, is unfathomable.

For starters, the cost has been enormous. Initially, the budget was $210 million. That was already a significant jump from the funding used in 2018, but Stats NZ advised that it would only barely be enough to provide data in line with statutory requirements. As a result, the Government injected the Census with extra funding to combat growing operational costs and threw even more at it to mitigate the effects of Cyclone Gabrielle. Somehow, all up, the total figure ballooned to well over $300 million.

With the vast amount of funding available to Stats NZ, you’d think they would comfortably have enough to deliver a Census with excellent data and an efficient delivery process. As it turns out, apparently not…

The raw individual response rate ended at a meagre 89% meaning it falls under the 90% target set by Stats NZ through their KPIs. That figure could be even lower too given that the raw rate is calculated using duplicate responses and outdated population statistics. For context, the 2018 figure ended at an embarrassing response rate of 82%, a truly pathetic outcome given the cost. This year’s census has only provided marginally better results on a budget of nearly $200 million more.

It looks worse still when you compare these results to the censuses prior to 2018. In 2013 the national response rate was 92.9%, done on a third of the budget, and in 2006, the response rate was 94.8%. Consider that Stats NZ’s most expensive proposal for the 2023 Census of over $280 million aimed for an individual response rate similar to 2006 figures. With a budget of almost $40 million more than that, the 89% response rate we got isn’t just underwhelming, it’s appalling.

And not only did this census fail to deliver for New Zealand as a whole, it also disproportionally failed to appropriately count Māori and Pasifika for the third time running. In 2013 the response rate for Māori and Pasifika was under 90%. That was concerning enough, but nowhere near as bad as it was in 2018 where response rates fell to below 70% for both groups respectively. Stats NZ prioritised shifting that disproportion for the 2023 edition, yet the response rates in these communities have barely improved.

One might claim that the collection process was hampered by Cyclone Gabrielle, a disaster which tore right through Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne. But whilst that may excuse the disappointing outcomes through those regions, it fails to explain the lack of response elsewhere. Northland and Waikato were notably poor, and almost the whole North Island had responses below 90% going into the final week.

Despite these clear failings, Russell will pretend the KPIs don’t exist and continue to compare the results solely against the mess that was 2018, but this couldn’t be more misleading.

For context, the 2018 census was an experiment gone disastrous. It implemented a completely new design from its predecessors aimed at reducing costs and expediting the transition towards digitalization. Delivery was almost entirely structured through online access codes and distributed and collected using a heavily reduced ground crew. Not only did the team fail to keep costs down, but the online approach didn’t work…at all. Almost a fifth of New Zealanders failed to complete the census and nearly a third of all Māori and Pasifika

As a result, the independent review of the Census was scathing of the process. It was so damning that even Stats NZ’s Chief Executive, Liz MacPherson, couldn’t defend it and resigned. Core to its message was how the model undervalued the importance of paper in the delivery process and focused too much on the online-first approach, but it also acknowledged how the “aggressive reduction in the field workforce meant Statistics NZ had a reduced capacity to respond when the response rate began to fall below acceptable tolerance levels.” The review recommended that both points were addressed for future versions of the Census.

Consequently, changes were made to this year’s model. The number of paper forms initially deployed was increased and the field staff capacity boosted. Still though, 56% of households only received online access codes and the expansion of ground crew was well short of what was required. In the end, only 3500 workers were deployed making it barely half the size of the number in 2013.

Material and operational costs of delivering a traditional census have increased over the years, but the importance of quality data has never been more paramount. Given that the budget was well over twice the price of 2018 and 3 times more than 2013, why didn’t the team go back to basics? In all five of the initial proposals, Stats NZ had virtually the exact same delivery model. Given that resourcing ended up being practically infinite, Stats NZ could have sent paper forms to all households by default and possibly even doubled their ground crew.

Regardless of poor response rates and an inadequate delivery model, it was how Stats NZ incentivized people to complete their forms which was arguably the most concerning.

In May, Stats NZ partnered up with Warriors NZ using $150,000 of taxpayers’ money to provide free tickets and food to those who attended one of the games and filled out their Census form. It gave those stragglers a chance to complete their census and earn a prize and it was rightly denounced as incredibly unfair.

As it turns out, though, the Warriors Campaign wasn’t the only form of bribery used by Stats NZ. The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union asked for costings on all incentives used to promote the Census. According to our OIA, both food and fuel vouchers were given out at up to $100 a head with a total budget of $1 million to support communities nationally and another $1 million for households in the Auckland region.

On the one hand, rewarding those who were too lazy to complete their forms on time is an insult to those who had already done so. More concerningly, though, it makes a mockery of the importance of completing the census. If people think that the only consequence for failing to fill in their forms is free food, why would anyone take it seriously.

Enforcing hefty fines on those who reject the Census is paramount for maintaining its national significance. Throwing millions of dollars at bribing those who have failed to complete what is legally required of them will only reinforce the apathy some New Zealanders already have towards completing their forms.

If providing an excellent Census wasn’t pivotal enough this year, then 2028 will absolutely be make or break. We cannot have our most important source of statistics be derived from poor data once again.

Russell will continue to hang her hat on the improvement from five years ago. Frankly though, for $317m, New Zealanders deserve much better.

It has been another busy week in politics. While the Prime Minister has been away in China, his Ministers have continued to cause him problems at home. Having already lost three Ministers in the last few months, he will have been relieved to hear that the Privileges Committee found Minister of Education, Jan Tinetti, not guilty of contempt of Parliament. Instead it found that her incorrect statement to the House on the publication of school attendance data was simply due to "a high degree of negligence". Well that's ok then! 

Parker's planning power grab gets even worse 🏘️⚖️ 

On Tuesday, the Environment Select Committee dropped its reports on the two bills with which the Government proposes to replace the Resource Management Act (RMA). The reports setting out the Committee's recommended amendments total a staggering 1,377 pages – longer than the entire Lord of the Rings trilogy!

While we are still working through the detail of these reports, from what we've seen, this revised version of the bills is even worse than the original. With hundreds of amendments to work through and just two months left before Parliament rises, it is simply inexcusable to seek to rush through such a fundamental and radical change to the planning system. We called on the Government to go back out to consultation, but David Parker told Heather du Plessis-Allan he had no intention of doing so.

In better news, our campaign to raise awareness about these reforms seems to be having an impact. Taxpayers’ Union – Curia polling undertaken last month showed strong public opposition. 48% of respondents believed that planning rules should be set by local councils compared with just 26% who preferred that these rules be set by the proposed regional planning committees. 26% of respondents were unsure.

As with Three Waters, our roadshow tour has strengthened the positions of opposition parties. After previously only having committed to amend any replacement to the RMA that the Government might pass before the election, this week the National Party joined ACT in committing to repeal. The Greens also dissented in the Select Committee report, which is why Labour wants to ram this through before it loses its majority at the election. To help us put a stop to that, chip in to the fighting fund here.

The search for the purpose of the New Zealand Space Agency continues, and most recently, it took the form of a sky-high junket for two staff members in the USA.

The Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment (MBIE) treated some of New Zealand's Space Agency staff to business-class flights to Washington DC, costing $31,000. They attended the 25th Annual Federal Aviation Administration Commercial Space Transportation Conference (no, we don't know it either).

But the trip wasn't just about the conference itself. Oh no, MBIE officials decided to extend their stay for a leisurely five days. The conference itself lasted only two days. The officials enjoyed the luxurious Grand Hyatt Washington Hotel, incurring a bill exceeding $5,500. Nice 'work' if you can get it!

MBIE defended the business-class tickets and the length of trip, claiming they were "in line with policy." Seems like a very tone-deaf policy during a cost-of-living crisis.

We say it's time MBIE focused on its actual responsibilities instead of squandering our hard-earned cash on justifying the existence of our Space Agency.

David Farrar examines media bias in New Zealand 📰📺

On the Common Room this week, our Co-founder, David Farrar, discussed media bias in New Zealand. 

The makeup of New Zealand's media landscape with very few centre-right media outlets is causing New Zealanders to lose trust in media. We know from research and scientific polling that journalists who classify their political ideology as left-leaning outnumber those who classify themselves as right-leaning by 5 to 1 – a stark contrast to the New Zealand population. 

David also examines the controversial Public Interest Journalism Fund (PIJF). While media outlets receiving taxpayer funds are keen to stress that this does not bias their reporting, our public polling shows that most New Zealanders believe government funding undermines media independence – something that is in itself harmful even if the funding has no real influence at all.  

As the fund is wrapping up (although some projects will remain funded until 2026) we have created a list of the top recipients of the PIJF since its inception.

Watch David’s video over on The Common Room here.

High-tax campaigners' hypocrisy exposed 🖋️🤑

You might remember the open letter from last month signed by various wealthy people, celebrities, and former civil servants that called for higher taxes. The letter began with "We write as people who are frustrated with how much tax we pay. We want to pay more". 

We were concerned with how distressing not paying enough tax must be for these individuals so your humble Taxpayers’ Union kindly wrote to them with details on how they could make an additional contribution to the Government's coffers by making a donation into the Crown Treasury bank account.

A month on, we checked in with Treasury to see how many millions had been generously deposited by these virtuous benefactors. We were shocked to discover that not a single person who said they wanted to pay more had made a contribution. Not even one.

These champagne socialists clearly weren't prepared to put their money where their mouths were. As we said at the time, we all agree that good public services are important, but there is so much Government waste that needs to be cut back, that tax rises are simply unjustifiable. 

Today's quadruple-whammy tax hikes 🧾🔺

I hope you managed to catch our advert in yesterday's New Zealand Herald on Grant Robertson's latest action to clean out your wallet. As of today, the Government hikes petrol tax by 29 cents/L, Road User Charges by (at least) 55%, alcohol taxes by 6.6%, and the ute tax by up to $1,725.

The cost of living crisis has been driven by the cost of government crisis. Government spending is out of control and has forced the Reserve Bank to hike interest rates, which will compound the pain for families needing to renew their mortgages.

This unnecessary cash grab will be used to fund nice-to-haves such as fancy new Teslas for the already well off, loss-making railways, and barely used cycleways. Hardworking families, farmers and tradies are being forced to subsidize the lifestyles of better-off city residents.

These tax hikes are completely avoidable if the Government can bring itself to stop wasting other people’s hard-earned money.

Thank you for your support.

Yours aye,

Callum Purves Campaigns Manager New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union.

Media coverage:

Newshub Indefensible, or necessary? The tool to solve health inequities that turned into a political football

Stuff David Farrar: Labour's spending 60% more on health for longer waiting times and fewer surgeries

Fed Talks Restoring Farmer Confidence: Feds' General Election Platform 2023 (17:52)

Rural News Farmers need less red tape, not handouts

Government must stop giving handouts to universities returning surpluses

Responding to news that a number of universities returned significant surpluses last year while still calling for government handouts, Taxpayers’ Union Campaigns Manager, Callum Purves, said:

“Universities across New Zealand have been crying poverty for months, and in response this week the Government announced it would be handing universities another $128 million of taxpayers’ money.

“As it turns out, a number of universities were not being particularly upfront with the public.

“For example, Victoria University has been one of the squeakiest wheels, when it turns out that last year they returned an operating cash surplus of $31.4 million. Worse still, last year they also found the spare money to spend a net $44.8 million on land and new buildings.

“Clearly this shows that some cash-grabbing unis are not in anything close to the financial dire straits their PR teams would have you believe.

“Rather than caving in to such demands, the Government should do its due diligence before throwing away hundreds of millions of hard-earned taxpayer dollars.”

Taxpayers' Union Exposes Outrageous Government Junket to Space Conference

The Taxpayers' Union has uncovered that the Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment (MBIE) indulged New Zealand's Space Agency in a recent trip to the USA, costing $36,760.07. An Official Information Request revealed that the NZ Space Agency flew business class to Washington DC and stayed in luxury accommodation while attending the 25th Annual Federal Aviation Administration Commercial Space Transportation Conference.

The lavish excursion saw MBIE officials staying at the Grand Hyatt Washington Hotel for five days, despite the conference lasting only two days. The hotel bill alone amounted to over $5,500, averaging more than $1,000 per night. Furthermore, taxpayers were burdened with a hefty price tag of over $31,000 for business class travel, which MBIE defended as being "in-line with policy."

Oliver Bryan, Taxpayers' Union Investigations Co-ordinator, expressed deep concern over this misuse of taxpayer money:

"This seems to have been an exercise in flying around the world trying to find a purpose for the Space Agency's continued existence. Their five days in Washington DC for a two-day conference that no one has ever heard of is a clear example of officials having a junket at taxpayer expense.

"It is outrageous that hardworking New Zealanders are footing the bill for a lavish jolly like this. It's high time the Ministry began focusing on its actual remit rather than wasting our money on once again proving the Space Agency's is nothing but a government vanity project."

Commenting on the news that the new Three Waters reform plan has already blown out costs by around $1 billion, Taxpayers’ Union Campaigns Manager, Callum Purves, said:

“Three Waters is adding layer upon layer of pointless bureaucracy. Inefficiency is baked into the design of these reforms, so is it really any wonder that they are already behind schedule and over budget?

“It has been clear from the get-go that Three Waters offered tremendously poor value for taxpayers’ money. More bureaucracy, no job losses, yet lower costs was a sum that never added up. McAnulty’s attempt to pull the wool over voters’ eyes with the changes introduced to Parliament earlier this month simply make this power grab even more expensive, and yet the Government is still failing to meet even these revised targets.

“The public has made it clear that they do not support seizing community water assets, whether they’re being handed to four distant entities or ten.”

Commenting on Grant Robertson’s and Jan Tinetti’s recent announcement of a $128 million bailout for the tertiary sector, Taxpayer’s Union Campaigns Manager, Callum Purves, said:

“Rather than giving universities and polytechs a cheque, the Government could save a lot of taxpayer dollars by asking them to trim the fat. Given that both Victoria University of Wellington and the University of Otago have higher administration staff numbers than research and teaching roles, universities could easily make savings without cutting frontline roles.

“While the universities need to make savings, one of the primary drivers of funding gaps has been the drop in student numbers, which has been directly affected by the Government’s restrictive travel policies during the latter stages of the pandemic.

“We also need to have proper rethink about how the Tertiary Education Commission (TEC) doles out subsidies to universities around New Zealand as it is becoming very clear that the current funding model is costing taxpayers more and more for diminishing returns.

"At the very least, this money should come from a reprioritisation from within the tertiary sector, specifically scrapping the fees-free policy that overwhelmingly benefits wealthy families without increasing enrolment numbers."

Reacting to the news that the Government is set to become a part owner of the Ruapehu ski fields, Taxpayers’ Union Campaigns Manager Callum Purves said:

“The Government should not be getting involved with propping up businesses that cannot stay afloat on their own. If the current operators go under, the mountains, ski-lifts and other infrastructure will still be there for another company to take over.

“Many international companies would be interested in buying the rights to operate the ski-fields for the reported price of $1, without the need for taxpayer loans, bailouts or buy-ins. Investing in New Zealand would be an attractive option for international companies seeking to diversify risk geographically and smooth income during the off-season in their respective countries.

“If the government wants to do something, a good start would be speaking with the many international ski-companies to see what regulatory barriers there are which are preventing them from taking over operations and seek to reduce them in time for the winter ski-season.

“People often forget that these things have an opportunity cost. The ski industry is one dominated by wealthy families who can afford to get away over the winter for some time on the slopes. Spending taxpayer money on bailing out the Ruapehu ski-fields means that we are effectively subsidising the hobbies of the wealthy at the cost of say funding frontline education or health services that have the greatest impact on low-income New Zealanders.”

Commenting on this morning’s GDP figures, Taxpayers’ Union Campaigns Manager, Callum Purves, said:

“While the impacts of the severe weather events earlier in this year will have damaged primary production, the Government needs to shoulder much of the blame for this economic contraction. Its spending addiction has driven inflation to record levels and forced the Reserve Bank to hike the Official Cash Rate repeatedly, which has undoubtedly hampered economic activity.

“New Zealand might have only just entered a technical recession, but without drastic and urgent action from the Government to rein in its spending, this situation may well persist for some time to come.

“While Grant Robertson might not want to listen to us, he should take heed of the IMF’s damning indictment of his economic policies. They rightly argue that other than investment in cyclone recovery and social housing, the Government should tighten its belt by cutting spending and ensuring that cost of living support is targeted to those who need it most.”

Commenting on news that the former Te Pūkenga chief executive, Stephen Town, was paid out close to $200,000, Taxpayers’ Union Campaigns Manager, Callum Purves, said: 

“The Government’s polytechnic merger was always a bad idea and one driven by their obsession with centralization. Far from delivering efficiencies, Te Pūkenga has simply created additional layers of bureaucracy while worsening financial problems and failing to address the issue of student numbers.

“The fact that the chief executive presiding over this mess was given a nearly $200,000 payout after having already been paid $65,000 for a period of ‘special leave’ is simply outrageous and completely unjustifiable. The golden goodbye culture in the public sector of rewarding failure must end immediately.”

Commenting on former Invercargill Mayor Tim Shadbolt’s request for a ratepayer-funded statue of himself, Taxpayers’ Union Campaigns Manager, Callum Purves, said:

“It beggars belief that Tim Shadbolt thinks this is an appropriate use of Invercargill residents' money, especially considering that the public have already had to pay for his enormous ratepayer-funded mayoral portrait.

“We commend Mayor Nobby Clarke for standing firm on this issue and looking out for ratepayers’ interests. If Mr Shadbolt would like a statue of himself, he is more than welcome to fundraise for one privately.”